Based on the latest (1:00 p.m. CDT) projected path of Tropical Storm Bonnie, forecast to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Thursday morning, the U.S. Census Bureau today calculated that about 2.1 million residents, excluding tourists, could be affected by the storm’s tropical force winds.

Affected residents would be those residing in the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch area, which stretches from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee River (north of Cedar Key, Fla.).

Should the storm make landfall near Panama City, as indicated by the latest probability charts by the National Hurricane Center, an estimated 1.1 million people in 19 counties could be affected.

An analysis of demographic data for the area in the storm’s projected path — about 28,845 square miles along the coast by 70 miles inland — shows that in the 41 counties for which data were compiled, there are an estimated 2.1 million residents, including 273,000 people 65 years old and over and approximately 514,000 children under 18.

The following is a demographic profile of the possibly affected area. The Census 2000 counts do not include seasonal tourist populations:

     Tropical Storm Bonnie is the second tropical storm of the 2004 Atlantic Season, and the first to threaten the Gulf of Mexico coast this year. According to measurements taken by the National Hurricane Center at 1:00 p.m. CDT, Bonnie packed maximum sustained winds of about 65 miles per hour. At that time, the storm was accelerating northeastward and getting stronger.

Note: These calculations were made possible by projections of the storm’s path by the National Hurricane Center, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service, combined with Census 2000 counts contained in LandView 6, a mapping software program. These data do not present a full picture of the seasonal population increases of coastal or other tourist areas during hurricane season.