The U.S. Census Bureau said today that, based on the latest (2:00 p.m. EDT) projected path of Hurricane Charley, an estimated 6.5 million residents of Florida’s Gulf Coast could be affected by the storm’s hurricane force winds. Charley is expected to sideswipe Key West, the state’s southernmost city, early Friday on its northward trek.

Affected residents would be those residing in the hurricane warning area, including the lower Florida Keys and the southwest Florida coast, from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach, and the hurricane watch area, which stretches northward from Bonita Beach to the Suwanee River.
A tropical storm warning area also was issued for the upper Florida Keys, and the southern Everglades.

Should the hurricane strengthen and continue its projected northern track, more than
6.5 million residents of 15 counties would be affected. According to the Census Bureau, five of the potentially affected counties (Hillsborough, Lee, Collier, Manatee and Marion) rank among the top 100 with the largest numerical population increase over the last three years. The latest census population estimates for cities in the affected area (as of July 1, 2003) include Tampa (with a population of more than 317,647), St. Petersburg (247,610), Clearwater (108,272), Sarasota (53,259), Marco Island (15,410), Naples (21,284), and Fort Myers (51,028).

Landfall in the Tampa Bay area would affect over 2.3 million residents in the area’s three counties. Tampa and St. Petersburg are the third and fourth largest cities in Florida after Jacksonville and Miami.

Hurricane Charley’s first effects are projected to be felt in the Florida Keys, home to more than 80,000 residents. Visitors were ordered to evacuate on Wednesday.

An analysis of demographic data for the area in the hurricane’s warning and watch areas— about 14,000 square miles spanning about 600 miles along the coast — shows a resident population of 6.5 million, including about 1.3 million people 65 years old and over and
1.4 million children under 18.

The following is a demographic profile of the possibly affected area (seasonal tourists are not included):

 
Hurricane Charley, the second hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic season, was projected to hit Florida within 24 hours after Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall in Florida’s northwest Panhandle earlier today. According to a National Hurricane Center at 2:00 p.m. EDT, Charley packed maximum sustained winds of about 105 miles per hour, making it a category two hurricane, with the storm expected to strengthen within the next 24 hours.

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Note: The above calculations are based on projections of the storm’s path from the National Hurricane Center, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service, Census 2000 counts contained in LandView 6, a mapping software program, and Census Bureau population estimates as of July 1, 2003. These data do not present a full picture of the seasonal population increases of coastal or other tourist areas.