Based on the latest (2 p.m. EDT) projected path of Hurricane Frances, the U.S. Census Bureau said today that an estimated 14.6 million residents of Florida could be affected by the storm’s
145 mph winds.

    Affected residents would be those residing in the hurricane warning area, which runs from Flagler Beach (south of St. Augustine) to Florida City (south of Miami). A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning also were in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay.

     Nearly 10 million Floridians, or 58.4 percent of the state’s entire population, live in 21 counties along the Atlantic coast. Moreover, many of these counties were among the fastest growing in Florida (and the nation) between 1990 and 2003. Flagler County (62,206) more than doubled its population during this period and Osceola County's (205,870) growth was more than 90 percent. Palm Beach County, among the counties with evacuations currently underway, experienced a population increase of 352,764, or 40.9 percent from 1990 to 2003.

     According to 2003 data from the bureau’s American Community Survey, about
10 percent, or more than 840,000, of the state’s 7.8 million housing units are mobile homes.

     Hurricane Frances, the second hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic season to draw a bead on Florida this month, was projected to hit the state within the next 24-36 hours. According to the National Hurricane Center at 2:00 p.m. EDT, Frances packed maximum sustained winds of about 145 MPH, making it a strong Category 4 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 80 miles from the center of the storm, with tropical storm force winds extending outward 185 miles.

Note: The above calculations are based on projections of the storm’s path from the National Hurricane Center, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service, Census 2000 counts contained in LandView 6, a mapping software program, and Census Bureau population estimates as of July 1, 2003. These data do not present a full picture of the seasonal population increases of coastal or other tourist areas.