We estimate the number of people by state, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and income categories. The income groups are defined by the ratio of family income to the Federal Poverty Level (FPL), which is referred to as income-to-poverty ratio (IPR). To make the necessary estimates, the model estimates the number of people with health insurance in each state by demographic categories for specified IPR categories. The demographic categories are defined by age, race/ethnicity, and sex.
The number of people in a category with health insurance can be factored as the product of the number of people in the category and the proportion of these people who have health insurance. Correspondingly, there are two submodels: one for estimating the number of people in the categories and another for estimating the proportion of people in these categories who have health insurance. The number of people without health insurance is estimated as the difference between the number of people in the category and the number with health insurance.
For modeling, the demographic groups and IPR categories are defined as follows:
The age groups are defined so that estimates for ages 18-64, 40-64, and 50-64 can be made. The IPR groups are defined so that a single model can be used to make estimates for IPR ≤ 200% and IPR ≤ 250% for each state. Development of these estimates is partly funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's), National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP). At this point we are only publishing estimates for women.
For previous publications describing initial and intermediate results see the demographic research section of the publications page. A more formal documentation will be provided at a later date.