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Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates

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Census.govPopulation SAIPE Main SAIPE DataModel Input DataInformation about Data InputsIntercensal Estimates of the Population › Intercensal Estimates of the Population: 1993 - 2004

Postcensal Estimates of the Population: 1993 - 2004

Demographic estimates of the total resident population of states and counties have been a standard data product of the U.S. Census Bureau for many years. The traditional reference point for these population estimates is July 1 of the specified year. Until 1996, the county-level estimates were restricted to the total population, while the state estimates included separate estimates by age, sex, and race/Hispanic origin. The requirements of this project and of several other data users resulted in the expansion of the county estimates program to include age, sex, and race/Hispanic origin detail. This project requires estimates of the total resident population and the following age groups: under age 5, age 5 to 17 years, under age 65, and age 65 and over.

We use postcensal estimates of the resident population as predictor variables in the county models of the number of people in poverty. The use of both population and the number of people represented on tax returns as predictor variables in these models provides an implicit measure of the number of persons omitted by tax returns, many of whom may have low incomes. In the state-level models, the complement of the ratio of the number of people represented on tax returns to the resident population plays the same role.

In the state-level models, the dependent variable, and the variable predicted for each state, is the ratio of numbers of people in poverty to population, as measured in the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS). To transform these into estimated numbers of people in poverty, we multiply each estimated ratio by a demographic estimate of the population as covered by the ASEC. The ASEC universe includes the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States and members of the armed forces in the United States living off post or with their families on post. It excludes all other members of the armed forces and treats college students as residing in their parental homes. To adjust estimates of total resident population to the ASEC universe, we subtract unpublished demographic estimates of the group quarters population by age and the appropriate type of group quarters from the estimate of the total resident population. Prior to income year 1999, we also added an estimate of "net student migrants" to the appropriate age group. We no longer make that adjustment because it is no longer a part of the demographic population estimates. Finally, we use estimates of the poverty universe at both the state and county level to compute the percentages of persons in poverty shown in the tables of estimates. We form poverty universe estimates from estimates of the resident non-institutional population by adjusting them to exclude several other population subgroups (e.g., foster children under age 15) and to limit the estimates of the number of children to related children. We describe these adjustments in more detail in the section on Denominators for State and County Poverty Rates: 1993-2004.

More on the Population Estimates Program.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau | Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates |  Last Revised: August 15, 2013