Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates

1993 Poverty Estimation Procedure for Puerto Rico

Derivation of the Estimated Number of Poor Related Children Age 5 to 17 Years Old for Puerto Rico for 1993

The estimate is based upon unpublished data from a "Special Family Income Survey" conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor and Human Resources, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. This survey was conducted on an experimental basis in conjunction with the regular Puerto Rico survey of employment and unemployment, in March 1995. Data are available from 2,485 households of the 3,185 householods in four outgoing rotation groups from the labor force survey sample. The special questionnaire was administered in face-to-face personal interviews. Unlike the labor force survey, the Family Income Survey questionnaire includes persons under age 16, though it does not provide age detail for persons under age 15. Income questions refer to money income received during 1994 and resemble the questions used in the U.S. Current Population Survey March Income Supplement in the breadth of income sources for which data are collected.

Because that survey was experimental, and in light of the manipulations required to derive estimates for the desired age group, we are unable to estimate confidence intervals.

The estimates of 5-17 year old children in poverty is made through the following steps.

1. Compute the poverty rate for related children age 5 to 17 years for 1994. We compute a poverty rate because it is not possible to obtain a direct estimate for the 5 to 17 age group from the survey as the survey does not provide the ages of family members under the age of 15.
1. Start with the estimated poverty rate for related children under 18 years from the Puerto Rico survey for 1994.

2. Compute the ratio of the poverty rate for related children 5 to 17 years to the poverty rate for related children under 18 years from the 1990 Census.
3. Multiply the estimated poverty rate for related children under 18 as measured by the Puerto Rico survey for 1994 by this ratio. The result is the estimated poverty rate for related children age 5 to 17.
   
   
   
2. Compute the number of related children age 5 to 17 for 1994. This step is necessary since the intercensal population estimates are made for the resident population, not for related children.

1. Start with "mid year 1994" estimated number of persons age 5 to 17.¹

2. Compute the ratio of related children age 5 to 17 to the total population age 5 to 17 as measured by the 1990 Census.

3. Multiply the estimated number of persons age 5 to 17 by this ratio. The result is the estimated number of related children age 5 to 17 years for "mid year 1994".
   
   
   
3. Compute the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 for 1994.

1. Start with estimated number of related children age 5 to 17 years for "mid year 1994".

2. Compute the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 by applying the poverty rate to the estimated number of related children age 5 to 17. The result is the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 for 1994 for Puerto Rico.
   
   
   
4. Compute the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 years for 1993.

To obtain an estimate of the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 for the target year, 1993, we prorate the change between the available data points.

Estimate for Puerto Rico for 1993:       570,512

¹Population estimates are available for the Commonwealth as a product of the Federal-State Cooperative Population Estimates Program. The population estimates were produced by the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Division, see this non-technical summary for details.