Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates

1995 Poverty Estimation Procedure for Puerto Rico

Derivation of the Estimated Number of Poor Related Children 5 to 17 Years Old for Puerto Rico for 1995

The estimate is based upon unpublished data from the Family Income Survey (FIS) conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor and Human Resources, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. This survey was conducted in conjunction with the regular Puerto Rico survey of employment and unemployment, in February and March 1997. Data are available from 2,314 households of the 3,152 households in four outgoing rotation groups from the labor force survey sample. The questionnaire was administered in face-to-face personal interviews. Unlike the labor force survey, the Family Income Survey questionnaire includes data about persons under age 16, though it does not provide their age and other demographic detail. Income questions refer to money income received during 1996 and resemble the questions used in the U.S. Current Population Survey March Income Supplement in the breadth of income sources for which data are collected.

In light of the manipulations required to derive estimates for the desired age group, we are unable to estimate confidence intervals for either estimate or the difference between the estimates.

The estimates of 5 to 17 year old children in poverty is made by the following steps.

1. Compute the poverty rate for related children age 5 to 17 years for 1996. We compute a poverty rate because it is not possible to obtain a direct estimate for the 5 to 17 age group from the survey as the survey does not provide the ages of family members under the age of 16.
   1. Start with the estimated poverty rate for children under 18 years from the Puerto Rico survey for 1996.

   2. Compute the ratio of the poverty rate for related children under 18 to the rate for all children under 18 from the 1990 Census.

   3. Compute the ratio of the poverty rate for related children 5 to 17 years to the poverty rate for related children under 18 years from the 1990 Census.

   4. Multiply the estimated poverty rate for related children under 18 as measured by the FIS for 1996 by these ratios. The result is the estimated poverty rate for related children age 5 to 17.

2. Compute the number of related children age 5 to 17 for 1996. This step is necessary since the intercensal population estimates are made for the resident population, not for related children.
   1. Start with "mid-year 1996" estimated number of persons age 5 to 17.¹

   2. Compute the ratio of related children age 5 to 17 to the total population age 5 to 17 as measured by the 1990 Census.

   3. Multiply the estimated number of persons age 5 to 17 by this ratio. The result is the estimated number of related children age 5 to 17 years for "mid year 1996".

3. Compute the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 for 1996.
   1. Start with estimated number of related children age 5 to 17 years for "mid-year 1996".

   2. Compute the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 by applying the poverty rate to the estimated number of related children age 5 to 17. The result is the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 for 1996 for Puerto Rico.

4. Compute the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 years for 1995.

   To obtain an estimate of the number of poor related children age 5 to 17 for the target year, 1995, we prorate the change between the available data points.

Estimate for Puerto Rico for 1995:       552,423

¹Population estimates are available for the Commonwealth as a product of the Federal-State Cooperative Population Estimates Program. The population estimates were produced by the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Division, see this non-technical summary for details.