United States Department of COMMERCE NEWS Washington, D.C. 20230 ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS ADMINISTRATION ------------ U.S. Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis This release contains sensitive economic data not to be released before 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, March 12, 2003 CB-03-45 Press Copy FT-900 (03-01) For information on goods contact: U.S. Census Bureau: Haydn R. Mearkle (301) 763-2246 Nick Orsini (301) 763-2311 For information on services contact: Bureau of Economic Analysis: Technical: Christopher Bach (202) 606-9545 Media: Larry Moran (202) 606-2649 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES January 2003 Goods and Services The U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total January exports of $81.9 billion and imports of $123.0 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $41.1 billion, $3.8 billion less than the $44.9 billion in December, revised. January exports were $1.3 billion more than December exports of $80.6 billion. January imports were $2.5 billion less than December imports of $125.5 billion. In January, the goods deficit decreased $3.7 billion from December to $44.8 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.1 billion to $3.7 billion. Exports of goods increased $1.4 billion to $56.8 billion, and imports of goods decreased $2.3 billion to $101.6 billion. Exports of services decreased to $25.1 billion from $25.2 billion, and imports of services decreased to $21.4 billion from $21.6 billion. Goods The December to January change in exports of goods reflected increases in capital goods ($0.6 billion); consumer goods ($0.5 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.4 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1 billion). A decrease occurred in other goods ($0.2 billion). Foods, feeds, and beverages were virtually unchanged. The December to January change in imports of goods reflected decreases in consumer goods ($1.1 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9 billion); capital goods ($0.3 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). An increase occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.3 billion). Services Services exports decreased $0.1 billion from December to January. Decreases in travel and passenger fares were partly offset by increases in royalties and license fees and other private services (which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services). Changes in the other categories of services exports were small. Services imports decreased $0.2 billion from December to January. Decreases in travel and passenger fares were partly offset by small increases in all other categories of services imports. Goods and Services Moving Average For the three months ending in January, exports of goods and services averaged $81.8 billion, while imports of goods and services averaged $123.9 billion, resulting in a average trade deficit of $42.1 billion. For the three months ending in December, the average trade deficit was $40.1 billion, reflecting average exports of $81.8 billion and average imports of $122.0 billion. Selected Not Seasonally Adjusted Goods Details The January figures showed surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Australia $0.3 (for December $0.7), Hong Kong $0.1 ($0.3), and Egypt $0.1 ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China $9.4 ($9.5), Western Europe $7.0 ($9.6), Japan $5.2 ($7.1), Canada $5.0 ($4.6), OPEC $3.6 ($3.2), Mexico $3.0 ($2.8), Taiwan $1.4 ($1.3), Korea $1.1 ($1.1), Brazil $0.6 ($0.6), Singapore $0.4 ($0.2), and Argentina $0.1 ($0.2). Advanced technology products (ATP) exports were $13.1 billion in January and imports were $15.4 billion, resulting in a deficit of $2.4 billion. January exports were $1.2 billion less than the $14.2 billion in December, while imports were $1.8 billion less than the $17.3 billion in December. Revisions Goods carry-over in January was $0.3 billion (0.5 percent) for exports and $0.9 billion (0.9 percent) for imports. For December, revised export carry-over was $0.2 billion (0.4 percent), revised down from $0.6 billion (1.1 percent). For December, revised import carry-over was $0.3 billion (0.3 percent), revised down from $1.1 billion (1.1 percent). Goods and services exports and imports for all months of 2002 were revised in order to align the seasonally adjusted monthly estimates with the annual totals. Services exports and imports for July through December 2002 were revised to incorporate more complete source data than were available previously (see page 30 for the monthly revision policy). The revised quarterly and monthly estimates are based on more complete source data than were available previously. For services exports, the largest revisions were in other private services and royalties and license fees. For services imports, the largest revisions were in royalties and license fees and travel. Services exports for December were revised down $0.4 billion to $25.2 billion; the revision was mostly accounted for by downward revisions in other private services and royalties and license fees. Services imports for December were revised up $0.1 billion to $21.6 billion; upward revisions in travel and passenger fares were partly offset by a downward revision in royalties and license fees. Notice to Users of Constant Dollar (Real) Data The U.S. Census Bureau will replace its fixed-weighted constant dollar series with a chained dollar series effective with the June 13, 2003 release of the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT-900). We are adopting this methodology to improve the quality of the constant dollar series and for consistency with other official government statistics released by the Department of Commerce. In the January 2001 FT900, we notified users of the constant dollar series (Exhibits 10 and 11) that we were considering changing the methodology used to calculate the series and asked for comments. The comments we received indicated that most data users want a merchandise trade constant dollar (real) series that is based on the methodology used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The new Census constant dollar series will be based on the same methodology used by BEA; however, the merchandise trade data are a monthly series and will use monthly chaining. The NIPA are quarterly and use quarterly chaining. Users are reminded, however, that the Census-basis dollar series will not match BEA's NIPA-basis constant dollar series, because of the underlying coverage differences. The base year for the new constant dollar series will be 2000. Three years of chained dollar data (2000 - 2002) will be published in the 2002 annual revision report, released on June 13, 2003. Data for 1994 through 1999 will be available at that time upon request. A list of questions and answers explaining more about the new series and the differences between the constant dollar data produced by the two methodologies is available on the Foreign Trade Division's Web site at: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www or by contacting the Special Projects Branch of the Foreign Trade Division on (301)763-3251. Table of Contents December 1995 Seasonally Adjusted Exhibit 1 International Trade in Goods and Services. . . . . . . . . 4 Exhibit 2 Goods and Services Centered Three - Month Moving Averages 5 Exhibit 3 U.S. Services by Major Category--Exports . . . . . . . . 6 Exhibit 4 U.S. Services by Major Category--Imports . . . . . . . . 7 Exhibit 5 U.S. Trade in Goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Exhibit 6 Exports and Imports of Goods by Principal End-Use Category9 Exhibit 7 Exports of Goods by End-Use Category and Commodity . . .10 Exhibit 8 Imports of Goods by End-Use Category and Commodity . . .12 Exhibit 9 Petroleum and Non-Petroleum End-Use Category Totals . . .14 Exhibit 10 Exports and Imports of Goods by Principal End-Use Category (Constant Dollars) . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Exhibit 11 Exports, Imports, and Balance of Goods, Petroleum and Non- Petroleum End-Use Commodity Category Totals (Constant Dollars)16 Not Seasonally Adjusted Exhibit 12 U.S. Trade in Goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Exhibit 13 Exports and Imports of Goods by Principal End-Use Category18 Exhibit 14 Exports, Imports, and Balance of Goods by Selected Countries and Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Exhibit 15 Exports and Imports of Goods by Principal SITC Commodity Groupings21 Exhibit 16 Exports, Imports, and Balance of Advanced Technology Products23 Exhibit 17 Imports of Energy - Related Petroleum Products, Including Crude Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Exhibit 18 Exports and Imports of Motor Vehicles and Parts By Selected Countries25 Information on Goods and Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26