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Projections of the Voting-Age Population for States: November 1996 - Report

NOTE: The estimates and projections shown in this release are consistent with the population as enumerated in the April 1, 1990 census, and have not been adjusted for census coverage errors. Persons of Hispanic origin shown in this release do not include residents of Puerto Rico but only of the conterminous 50 States and the District of Columbia.


INTRODUCTION


This release presents projections of the population of voting age (18 years and over) for States for November 1, 1996, by broad age groups and gender by race and Hispanic origin. The projections shown here are based on the April 1, 1990, population as enumerated in the 1990 census projected forward to November 1, 1996.

The projections are designed to serve as a reference for the November general elections for members of the 106th Congress of the United States. They are for the resident population of the United States, including members of the Armed Forces where they reside at their duty stations. They exclude the military and civilian population overseas and their dependents of voting age who would be eligible to vote by absentee ballot in their home states.


HIGHLIGHTS


  • The voting-age population of the United States is expected to reach 196.5 million persons by November 1, 1996, up from an estimated 189.5 million in November 1992.
  • Women will number 102.2 million and represent 52 percent of the voting-age population by November 1996 and will out-number men by 7.9 million.
  • The African-American population will number 22.9 million persons and represent 12 percent of the voting-age population. Whites will represent 165.2 million persons, accounting for 84 percent of the voting-age population.
  • Another 8.4 million persons or 4 percent of the population will be races other than White or African-American; persons of other races include Asian or Pacific Islander, American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut.
  • Hispanics (who may be of any race) will number 18.6 million or 9 percent of the electorate.
  • California, the largest State in the Nation, will have a projected 23.1 million persons of voting age in the November 1996 election.

POPULATION ELIGIBLE TO REGISTER TO VOTE


The population of voting age shown in this report is for the resident population and includes a number of persons who meet the age requirement but cannot vote because they cannot register. Since citizenship is a universal requirement for registering in the United States, noncitizens (documented residents) are the principal group of ineligible voting-age persons. According to the November 1994 Current Population Survey on Voting and Registration, and estimated 13.0 million persons aged 18 years and over (7 percent) were not citizens.

Because of shortened State residence requirements for voting in national elections and the availability of absentee ballots, few persons are now disenfranchised because they change residence before an election or are not at home on election day. However, convicted felons, and persons committed to penal institutions, mental hospitals, and other institutions are prohibited from voting.


METHODOLOGY


The projections of the voting-age population are consistent with the assumptions, data, and trends of the preferred series in the Census Bureau's most recent State population projections. 1/ The projections have been revised to be consistent with the July 1, 1995 State estimates by age and gender. 2/ They were also modified to be consistent with the middle series of the most recent U.S. population projections by age, gender, race, and origin. 3/


RELATED REPORTS


This release was announced in the Census Bureau Product Announcement No. CB96-38. Other general information on voting statistics published by the Census Bureau are available on the internet or by contacting the voting statistics staff at (301) 457- 2416.



1/ Paul R. Campbell. "Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to 2020," Current Population Reports, Series P25-1111 (1994).

2/ Forthcoming estimates to be published in 1996.

3/ Jennifer Cheeseman Day. "Populaton Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050," Current Population Reports, Series P25-1130 (1996).


Source: U.S. Census Bureau | Voting and Registration |  Last Revised: November 09, 2010