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Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, & Orders (M3)
M3 Survey Frequently Asked Questions
Q: At release time, I do not see the
most recent Durable Goods or Factory orders information. What should I
do?
A: The most likely reason is your browser
needs to be refreshed or rebooted because you were logged onto the site
before we uploaded the new press release. If refreshing or rebooting does
not work, please feel free to call us at (301) 763-4832 to make sure we
are not having any problems on our end.
A: The figures published are calculated by applying monthly ratios of change from our reporting panel (which accounts for about 60% of the U.S total value of shipments) to the Universe levels estimated by the Annual Survey of Manufactures. Q: Why are there no unfilled orders or new orders for non-durable industries?
A: The M3 survey does not track unfilled orders for non-durable good industries because most manufacturers fill the orders within the same month. In this case, the new orders are the same as shipments. Q: I have seen in your documentation that New Orders is a derived number – how does that work and why don't you use the reported data?
A: The New Orders (NO) are derived based on current shipments (VS) plus current unfilled orders (UO) minus prior month unfilled orders. The formula for calculating new orders is:
NO's (current) = VS's (current) + UO's (current) - UO's (prior)
As mentioned in the previous question, non-durable industries do not have unfilled orders. This is also true for some durable industries and for some individual companies within an industry category. These companies do not report new or unfilled orders to the Census Bureau. Using this formula, new orders for these companies are equal to shipments. In addition, there are numerous companies that are able to report unfilled orders, but are not able to report new orders. Q: Does Inventory data account for depreciation?
A: No, inventories are collected on a current cost basis. which means what they are worth in today's market. Q: In order to get a better idea of the accuracy of the sample, is it possible to obtain a list of specific contributors to a particular industry?
A: Under Federal law (Title 13, United States code), the Census Bureau is prohibited from releasing or distributing any specific company information, including names of participants. Q: Do you have a list of your release dates?
A: A list of the release dates for the current year can be found at: www.census.gov/m3/reldate2.htm Q: I have noticed that there are some months (for instance 1998:12 and 1993:12) when the seasonally adjusted data for new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft (code NXA) are bigger than those for non-defense capital goods including aircraft (code NDE). How can this be explained?
A: The primary reason is due to Aircraft cancellations. When cancellations occur they can be large enough to create a negative amount of new orders for the month. This goes for any industry; however it is more noticeable in aircraft. The negative new orders for aircraft make the total (NDE) smaller than the part excluding aircraft (NXA). Q: I am looking for historic data for some of your published series. Where can I find this information?
A: Historic data can be accessed at: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/hist/naicshist.htm This link will provide you with ASCII and Excel file formats for all of our published series back to 1992. Q: Do you have data before 1992?
A: Data prior to 1992 are based on the old Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. These data can be accessed at: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/hist/m3bendoc.htm If you wish to use these data, it is important that you review the M3 NAICS Survey Revision Information at: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/naics/naics.htm to determine how the series migrated from SIC to NAICS. Q: Why doesn't the historic time-series have New Orders data for January 1992?
A: New orders are derived from current shipments and the change in unfilled orders. Since there are no unfilled orders data prior to January 1992, the new order calculation cannot be performed for January 1992. Q: What is included in the defense and non-defense capital goods categories?
A: A list of industry and aggregate category compositions can be found at: www.census.gov/m3/appendixb.pdf Q: Should the addition of capital goods and consumer goods equal total durable goods?
A: No. This assumption fails to take into consideration the intermediate durable goods used to manufacture capital and consumer goods such as: Aircraft Parts, Motor Vehicle Parts and Semiconductors. Q: Where can I obtain data for more detailed (4-digit and higher) NAICS categories?
A: The M3 Survey does not collect more detailed data than the aggregate level specified in our instruction manual that can be accessed at: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/contactinfo/instructioninfo.htm The Annual Survey of Manufactures' (ASM) collects more detailed/specific NAICS categories. For more information, contact our Information Services Center at (301) 763-4673 or visit the ASM web page located at: http://www.census.gov/mcd/asmhome.html Q: The specific data category I'm looking for is listed in your Composition of NAICS Industry Categories document but I can't find it in the press releases or the historic time-series. Why is this?
A: We only publish data series if we have sufficient coverage to be confident of the estimates we calculate. Unpublished data series are not available. The historic time-series only reflect what is published in the press releases. Q: How could I compile a list of manufacturing products in a particular sector?
A: A general category breakdown, as collected by the M3 survey, can be accessed at: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/appendixb.pdf
A more detailed breakdown/product list of specific 6-digit NAICS codes can be accessed at: http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html Then:
- In the upper left corner of the page, click on the NAICS to SIC/SIC to NAICS button
- In the middle left of the page, click on the 31-33 Manufacturing link
- Click on the link (for the category of interest) for a list of NAICS codes associated with that sector
- Click on the appropriate NAICS code to find a detailed product list
A: Information regarding seasonal adjustment can be found at: www.census.gov/const/www/faq2.html Q: Is there a table of seasonal factors on your website?
A: The M3 Survey does not publish a table of seasonal factors. The seasonal factor can be created by dividing unadjusted data by seasonally adjusted data. Q: Where can I find information regarding the conversion to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)?
A: Information regarding the NAICS conversion can be found at:www.census.gov/m3/naics/naics.htm Q: Why does the M3 Survey have major revisions each year?
A: When data from the Economic Census or an Annual Survey of Manufactures becomes available, the M3 Survey is "benchmarked" to those new levels. The process of benchmarking modifies the monthly M3 estimates to sum to the new level as determined by one of these sources. Additionally, the seasonal adjustment specification files are reviewed and modified as necessary and new seasonal adjustment factors are calculated. Q: Where can I find information on the latest benchmark?
A: Information regarding the latest benchmark can be found at: www.census.gov/m3/bench/bench.htm
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