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Example of EPP Model

Year National Urban Rural
1980 0.00 0.00 0.00
1981 0.00 0.00 0.00
1982 0.00 0.00 0.00
1983 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 0.01 0.01 0.00
1985 0.46 0.57 0.39
1986 0.92 1.20 0.75
1987 1.79 2.43 1.40
1988 3.37 4.73 2.56
1989 6.02 8.61 4.47
1990 9.88 14.15 7.32
1991 14.49 20.42 10.95
1992 18.88 25.84 14.73
1993 22.22 29.48 17.92
1994 24.29 31.40 20.09
1995 25.30 32.15 21.29
1996 25.62 32.22 21.78
1997 25.54 31.97 21.84
1998 25.25 31.55 21.65
1999 24.87 31.10 21.34
2000 24.48 30.67 21.01
2001 24.14 30.32 20.69
2002 23.86 30.06 20.43
2003 23.67 29.92 20.24
2004 23.57 29.86 20.13
2005 23.53 29.89 20.09
2006 23.55 29.98 20.10
2007 23.60 30.08 20.15
2008 23.66 30.17 20.21
2009 23.71 30.24 20.28
2010 23.75 30.28 20.33

Example of a model fitting exercise from the EPP software program. Urban and rural fits are weighted by population up to an estimated national level epidemic. Figures shown are estimated adult HIV prevalence. They do not apply to any particular country. They serve only as an example of how EPP works.

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