This paper reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by Census Bureau Staff. It has undergone a more limited review than official Census Bureau publications. This report is released to inform interested parties of research and to encourage discussion.
The U.S. Census Bureau produces national population estimates on an annual basis using methodology that incorporates the three main determinants of population change: births, deaths, and net migration. Net international migration plays an integral role in determining both the size and demographic composition of the population at the national level. It is the most complex determinant of population change, and its complete measurement involves the measurement of several sub-components, each one using separate methodology. In view of the fact that these sub-components are estimated separately, each is subject to differing levels of uncertainty or bias. This paper provides a detailed discussion of the definitions, methodologies, assumptions, and data sources used to measure net international migration, including a brief description of estimates for geography and demographic characteristics. Following the discussion of the sub-components of net international migration, the strengths and limitations of each are presented along with potential research and developments.
This report was prepared under the general direction of Bashir Ahmed, Chief of the Administrative Records and Methodology Research Branch. Signe Wetrogan, Assistant Division Chief for Population Estimates and Projections, provided overall direction. Professional consultation was provided by Robert Warren, J. Gregory Robinson, Kevin Deardorff, Gregory Spencer, Todd Gardner, David Word, and Frank Hobbs.
Post-censal national population estimates
Net international migration to the United States
Legal Immigration
Data sources
Methodology
Strengths and limitations
Migration of refugees
Data sources
Methodology
Strengths and limitations
Net unauthorized migration to the United States
Data sources
Methodology
Strengths and limitations
Emigration
Data sources
Methodology: emigration of U.S. natives
Methodology: emigration of foreign-born legal residents
Strengths and limitations
Net migration from Puerto Rico
Data and methodology
Strengths and limitations
Net temporary migration
Methodology: net temporary migration
Methodology: net specialty workers
Strengths and limitations
Table 1. The total resident population and net international migration component for the vintage 2000 post-censal national estimates: 1990 to 2000.
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Table 2. Net international migration and its sub-components for the vintage 2000 post-censal national estimates: 1990 to 2000.
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Table 3. Distribution of legal immigration by major class of admission from the Immigration and Naturalization Service: fiscal year 1998.
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Table 4. Net international migration and legal immigration numeric change, percent change, and crude net legal immigration rate for the vintage 2000 post-censal national estimates: 1990 to 2000.
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Table 5. Legal immigrants by country of birth categories for the federal fiscal year ending September 30, as applied to the vintage 2000 post-censal national estimates: 1990 to 1999.
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Table 6. Alternative estimates of annual net additions of the unauthorized migrant population, analyzed in selecting the estimate of 225,000 per year.
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Table 7. Emigrants by nativity for the vintage 2000 post-censal national estimates: 1990 to 2000.
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Table 8. Nonimmigrants by special worker H-1B status for the vintage 2000 post-censal national estimates: 1990 to 2000.
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