FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

THURSDAY, JUNE 12, 2008, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Aneta Lukasik / Timothy Winters                                                                                                                                                                                            CB08-86
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


MAY 2008

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $385.4 billion, an increase of 1.0 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 2.5 percent (±0.7%) above May 2007. Total sales for the March through May 2008 period were up 2.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2008 percent change was revised from -0.2 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.4 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 1.0 percent (±0.7%) from April 2008 and were 2.2 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 13.8 percent (±2.1%) from May 2007 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 10.0 percent (±2.1%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for June is scheduled to be released July 15, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2008

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 NAICS(1) Kind of Business May(3) Apr Mar May Apr Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 385,448 381,563 380,020 376,222 370,568 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 312,692 309,058 305,976 297,951 293,249 Retail ....................................... 347,015 343,444 342,367 339,643 334,151 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 98,438 97,982 96,993 96,114 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 72,756 72,505 74,044 78,271 77,319 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 66,120 66,078 67,643 71,902 71,041 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,528 9,491 9,477 10,017 10,030 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,546 9,475 9,372 9,201 9,157 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,656 7,550 7,378 7,309 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,819 1,822 1,823 1,848 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 28,117 27,449 26,740 29,048 27,804 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 23,734 22,949 25,694 24,693 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 49,158 48,969 48,592 46,272 46,133 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 44,130 43,880 43,563 41,311 41,277 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,444 3,434 3,308 3,213 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 20,597 20,439 20,272 19,670 19,690 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,855 16,765 16,515 16,532 447 Gasoline stations................................ 43,464 42,376 42,296 38,205 36,037 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,977 18,886 18,872 18,997 18,495 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,389 3,339 3,466 3,298 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,242 2,210 2,189 2,159 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,517 7,464 7,404 7,384 7,221 452 General merchandise stores....................... 50,110 49,511 49,285 47,656 47,470 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,125 16,984 16,986 17,582 17,458 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 32,527 32,299 30,074 30,012 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 28,794 28,614 26,462 26,440 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,733 3,685 3,612 3,572 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,803 9,867 9,829 9,971 9,751 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 27,442 27,012 26,184 24,951 25,044 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 18,456 17,893 17,362 17,149 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 38,433 38,119 37,653 36,579 36,417 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2008

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 5 month total % Chg. 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2008 from May(2) Apr Mar May Apr Code 2007 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 1,857,392 3.6 407,283 375,527 378,755 395,495 362,087 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,487,675 5.7 328,284 300,072 300,572 309,461 284,152 Retail ....................................... 1,669,374 3.4 366,352 337,522 340,236 357,416 325,816 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 89,420 93,727 95,021 88,362 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 369,717 -4.0 78,999 75,455 78,183 86,034 77,935 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 338,126 -4.6 72,071 68,919 71,769 79,308 71,751 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 53,749 56,849 62,685 57,059 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,536 6,414 6,726 6,184 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 45,114 -4.4 9,471 8,827 9,136 9,877 9,107 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,816 5,100 5,282 4,925 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,011 4,036 4,595 4,182 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 43,308 3.0 8,859 8,101 8,659 8,487 7,759 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,469 6,886 6,854 6,103 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,632 1,773 1,633 1,656 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 135,239 -3.2 34,851 30,996 25,703 35,979 30,415 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 25,490 21,802 29,677 25,730 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 239,725 6.6 51,945 46,891 48,557 48,105 44,512 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 216,495 7.0 46,645 42,213 43,824 43,005 39,956 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,186 3,176 3,371 2,959 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 102,382 4.5 21,235 20,071 20,779 20,240 19,296 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,602 17,184 16,994 16,267 447 Gasoline stations................................ 205,771 19.7 47,072 42,715 41,281 40,841 36,181 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 85,272 1.7 19,224 17,342 18,119 18,772 17,363 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 850 816 888 874 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,447 3,406 3,653 3,440 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,369 6,751 6,934 6,545 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,195 2,285 2,202 2,228 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 33,139 4.6 6,968 6,449 6,649 6,675 6,116 452 General merchandise stores....................... 231,007 4.9 51,227 45,594 47,929 47,678 44,836 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 75,890 -3.0 16,901 15,149 15,938 16,954 16,122 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 15,573 16,384 17,429 16,576 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 30,445 31,991 30,724 28,714 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 26,951 28,442 27,018 25,303 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,494 3,549 3,706 3,411 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 47,316 1.4 10,576 9,238 9,224 10,737 8,963 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 131,384 7.3 25,925 25,843 26,017 23,991 23,333 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 17,847 16,855 17,154 16,103 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 188,018 5.3 40,931 38,005 38,519 38,079 36,271 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2008

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) May Apr 2008 2008 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Apr May Mar Apr Code 2008 2007 2008 2007 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.0 +2.5 +0.4 +3.0 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.2 +4.9 +1.0 +5.4 Retail .................................. +1.0 +2.2 +0.3 +2.8 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.3 -7.0 -2.1 -6.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +0.1 -8.0 -2.3 -7.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.4 -4.9 +0.1 -5.4 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.7 +3.7 +1.1 +3.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +2.4 -3.2 +2.7 -1.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +6.2 +0.8 +6.1 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.6 +6.8 +0.7 +6.3 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.8 +4.7 +0.8 +3.8 447 Gasoline stations................................ +2.6 +13.8 +0.2 +17.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.5 -0.1 +0.1 +2.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.7 +1.8 +0.8 +3.4 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.2 +5.1 +0.5 +4.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.8 -2.6 0.0 -2.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -0.6 -1.7 +0.4 +1.2 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.6 +10.0 +3.2 +7.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.8 +5.1 +1.2 +4.7 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2008

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) May Apr 2008 2008 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Apr May Mar Apr Code 2008 2007 2008 2007 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +8.5 +3.0 -0.9 +3.7 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +9.4 +6.1 -0.2 +5.6 Retail .................................. +8.5 +2.5 -0.8 +3.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +4.7 -8.2 -3.5 -3.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +4.6 -9.1 -4.0 -3.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +7.3 -4.1 -3.4 -3.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +9.4 +4.4 -6.4 +4.4 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +12.4 -3.1 +20.6 +1.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +10.8 +8.0 -3.4 +5.3 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +10.5 +8.5 -3.7 +5.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +5.8 +4.9 -3.4 +4.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ +10.2 +15.3 +3.5 +18.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +10.9 +2.4 -4.3 -0.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +8.0 +4.4 -3.0 +5.4 452 General merchandise stores....................... +12.4 +7.4 -4.9 +1.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +11.6 -0.3 -5.0 -6.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +14.5 -1.5 +0.2 +3.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.3 +8.1 -0.7 +10.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +7.7 +7.5 -1.3 +4.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MAY 2008 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Ms. Aneta Lukasik (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: June 12, 2008