FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 13, 2008, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Aneta Lukasik / Timothy Winters                                                                                                                                                                                            CB08-116
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


JULY 2008

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $384.6 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 2.6 percent (±0.7%) above July 2007. Total sales for the May through July 2008 period were up 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2008 percent change was revised from +0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from June 2008, but were 2.6 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 24.6 percent (±2.0%) from July 2007 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 7.7 percent (±2.0%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales


(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for August is scheduled to be released September 12, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero. 



TABLE 1A.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2008
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2)

                 (In Millions of dollars)


                                                                     2008     2008     2008     2007     2007
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                      Jul(3)   Jun      May      Jul      Jun
   Code                                                              (a)      (p)      (r)      (r)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................   384,631  385,102  383,769  374,758  372,603

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............   316,704  315,494  312,653  298,832  296,604

                   Retail .......................................   346,238  346,645  345,425  337,572  335,739

                GAFO(4)..........................................       (*)   99,720   99,675   97,541   96,642

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    67,927   69,608   71,116   75,926   75,999
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................    61,445   63,046   64,608   69,605   69,694

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     9,482    9,390    9,502    9,959    9,901

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................    9,659    9,584    9,657    9,214    9,103
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................       (*)    7,708    7,830    7,355    7,295
   44312         Computer & software stores......................       (*)    1,876    1,827    1,859    1,808

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    28,008   27,923   28,017   28,293   28,096
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................       (*)   23,851   24,138   24,901   24,854

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................    49,584   49,370   48,891   46,967   46,601
   4451          Grocery stores..................................    44,309   44,160   43,775   41,975   41,631
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................       (*)    3,517    3,468    3,359    3,336

   446          Health & personal care stores....................    20,525   20,532   20,407   19,957   19,763
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................       (*)   17,004   16,859   16,658   16,452

   447          Gasoline stations................................    46,045   45,688   43,946   36,952   37,013

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........    19,126   19,080   19,094   18,948   18,730
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................       (*)      (S)      (S)      (S)      (S)
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................       (*)    3,356    3,369    3,391    3,351
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................       (*)    2,280    2,275    2,230    2,180

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......     7,514    7,527    7,509    7,471    7,353

   452          General merchandise stores.......................    50,726   50,589   50,306   48,208   47,787
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................    17,195   17,183   17,128   17,556   17,386
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)...............       (*)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................       (*)   33,406   33,178   30,652   30,401
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................       (*)   29,604   29,389   27,049   26,815
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............       (*)    3,802    3,789    3,603    3,586

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................    10,046   10,051    9,904   10,044   10,196

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................    27,596   27,303   27,076   25,633   25,197
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........       (*)   18,535   18,397   17,973   17,539

   722          Food services & drinking places..................    38,393   38,457   38,344   37,186   36,864


                                 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see  http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
      uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program.  The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
      adjusted estimates shown in this table.  Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated.  Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
      on the Internet at  http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

(3)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(4)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(5)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.






TABLE 1B.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2008
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
                 (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change)

                                                                       7 month total
                                                                                 % Chg.   2008     2008     2008     2007     2007
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                        2008       from    Jul(2)   Jun      May      Jul      Jun
   Code                                                                           2007    (a)      (p)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................   2,634,373      3.3   393,194  385,821  405,376  376,319  380,587

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............   2,120,358      5.8   319,538  314,249  327,268  296,300  299,831

                   Retail .......................................   2,367,743      3.2   353,457  346,787  364,540  337,869  342,285

                GAFO(3)..........................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   94,381   99,696   91,434   93,141

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     514,015     -5.8    73,656   71,572   78,108   80,019   80,756
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................     468,762     -6.6    66,668   64,748   71,327   73,433   74,085
   44111          New car dealers................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   49,518   55,328   58,903   58,581
   4413          Auto parts, acc. & tire stores..................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,824    6,781    6,586    6,671

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............      63,655     -4.7     9,596    8,977    9,454    9,839    9,792
   4421          Furniture stores................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    4,666    5,156    5,164    5,160
   4422          Home furnishings stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    4,311    4,298    4,675    4,632

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................     61,200      3.7     9,000    8,762    8,973    8,501    8,468
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    7,053    7,376    6,796    6,828
   44312         Computer & software stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,709    1,597    1,705    1,640

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     196,976     -2.2    30,606   31,582   34,385   29,948   31,779
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................         (*)       (*)      (*)   26,093   27,372   26,644   27,464

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     339,258      6.1    51,187   48,854   51,398   47,536   47,254
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     305,288      6.4    45,727   43,674   46,008   42,479   42,131
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,517    3,655    3,450    3,486

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     142,372      4.0    20,279   20,019   20,917   19,418   19,526
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,494   17,297   16,208   16,189

   447          Gasoline stations................................     305,575     21.2    50,696   48,840   47,418   40,167   39,974

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     120,494      1.7    17,648   17,347   19,409   17,123   17,550
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)      857      908      760      863
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,235    3,642    2,981    3,304
   44814         Family clothing stores..........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,568    7,173    6,785    6,668
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,091    2,366    2,107    2,073

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......      47,087      3.3     7,003    6,925    6,998    6,858    7,044

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     329,036      5.2    48,567   49,280   51,427   45,636   46,908
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     107,389     -2.6    15,578   16,014   16,823   15,671   16,325
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)...............         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,445   17,287   16,110   16,782
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................         (*)       (*)      (*)   33,266   34,604   29,965   30,583
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................         (*)       (*)      (*)   29,574   30,682   26,589   27,083
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,692    3,922    3,376    3,500

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................      67,658      1.1    10,020   10,147   10,667    9,805   10,475

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     180,417      7.2    25,199   24,482   25,386   23,019   22,759
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........         (*)       (*)      (*)   17,293   17,827   16,733   16,346

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     266,630      4.5    39,737   39,034   40,836   38,450   38,302


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available  (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see  http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(3)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(4)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.






TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2008

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Jul             Jun
                                                                        2008            2008
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Jun     Jul     May     Jun
   Code                                                              2008    2007    2008    2007
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     -0.1    +2.6    +0.3    +3.4

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     +0.4    +6.0    +0.9    +6.4

                        Retail ..................................     -0.1    +2.6    +0.4    +3.2

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     -2.4   -10.5    -2.1    -8.4
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers...............     -2.5   -11.7    -2.4    -9.5

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     +1.0    -4.8    -1.2    -5.2

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     +0.8    +4.8    -0.8    +5.3

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     +0.3    -1.0    -0.3    -0.6

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +0.4    +5.6    +1.0    +5.9
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +0.3    +5.6    +0.9    +6.1

   446          Health & personal care stores....................      0.0    +2.8    +0.6    +3.9

   447          Gasoline stations................................     +0.8   +24.6    +4.0   +23.4

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     +0.2    +0.9    -0.1    +1.9

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........    -0.2    +0.6    +0.2    +2.4

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     +0.3    +5.2    +0.6    +5.9
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     +0.1    -2.1    +0.3    -1.2

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................      0.0     0.0    +1.5    -1.4

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     +1.1    +7.7    +0.8    +8.4

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     -0.2    +3.2    +0.3    +4.3


  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.






TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2008

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Jul             Jun
                                                                        2008            2008
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Jun     Jul     May     Jun
   Code                                                              2008    2007    2008    2007
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     +1.9    +4.5    -4.8    +1.4

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     +1.7    +7.8    -4.0    +4.8

                        Retail ..................................     +1.9    +4.6    -4.9    +1.3

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     +2.9    -8.0    -8.4   -11.4
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers................    +3.0    -9.2    -9.2   -12.6

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     +6.9    -2.5    -5.0    -8.3

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     +2.7    +5.9    -2.4    +3.5

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     -3.1    +2.2    -8.2    -0.6

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +4.8    +7.7    -4.9    +3.4
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +4.7    +7.6    -5.1    +3.7

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +1.3    +4.4    -4.3    +2.5

   447          Gasoline stations................................     +3.8   +26.2    +3.0   +22.2

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     +1.7    +3.1   -10.6    -1.2

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........    +1.1    +2.1    -1.0    -1.7

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     -1.4    +6.4    -4.2    +5.1
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     -2.7    -0.6    -4.8    -1.9

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     -1.3    +2.2    -4.9    -3.1

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     +2.9    +9.5    -3.6    +7.6

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     +1.8    +3.3    -4.4    +1.9


  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JULY 2008 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.

(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: August 13, 2008