FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Timothy Winters / Aneta Erdie                                                                                                                                                                                            CB09-69
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


APRIL 2009

Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales and inventories were revised based on the results of the 2007 Annual Retail Trade Survey. The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services showing revised data can be found on our website at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/benchmark/2009/html/annrev09.html. 

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $337.7 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 10.1 percent (±0.7%) below April 2008. Total sales for the February through April 2009 period were down 9.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2009 percent change was revised from -1.2 percent (±0.5%) to -1.3 percent (±0.3%).

Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from March 2009 and 11.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 36.4 percent (±1.5%) from April 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 20.7 percent (±2.3%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales


(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for May is scheduled to be released June 11, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero. 



TABLE 1A.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--April 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2)

                 (In Millions of dollars)


                                                                     2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                      Apr(3)   Mar      Feb      Apr      Mar
   Code                                                              (a)      (p)      (r)      (r)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................   337,677  338,930  343,438  375,614  374,845

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............   282,279  283,640  287,013  305,724  302,814

                   Retail .......................................   299,516  300,837  304,889  337,996  337,621

                GAFO(4)..........................................       (*)   94,132   95,912   97,725   97,419

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    55,398   55,290   56,425   69,890   72,031
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................    48,831   48,730   49,775   63,406   65,563

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     7,840    7,879    8,066    9,137    9,187

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................    8,322    8,565    9,287    9,462    9,388
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................       (*)    6,716    7,411    7,553    7,468
   44312         Computer & software stores......................       (*)    1,849    1,876    1,909    1,920

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    24,467   24,400   24,586   27,412   27,038
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................       (*)   20,349   20,546   23,517   23,143

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................    48,301   48,780   48,702   48,923   48,454
   4451          Grocery stores..................................    43,007   43,489   43,450   43,879   43,492
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................       (*)    3,512    3,503    3,394    3,380

   446          Health & personal care stores....................    21,094   21,019   20,887   20,284   20,089
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................       (*)   17,469   17,316   16,798   16,637

   447          Gasoline stations................................    26,479   27,107   28,001   41,632   41,379

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........    17,337   17,427   17,940   18,551   18,660
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................       (*)      (S)      (S)      (S)      (S)
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................       (*)    2,918    2,947    3,292    3,246
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................       (*)    2,164    2,224    2,293    2,222

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......     7,268    7,243    7,305    7,392    7,366

   452          General merchandise stores.......................    49,784   49,857   50,122   49,794   49,442
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................    15,903   15,939   16,020   16,941   16,921
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)...............       (*)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................       (*)   33,918   34,102   32,853   32,521
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................       (*)   30,086   30,209   29,096   28,813
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............       (*)    3,832    3,893    3,757    3,708

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................     9,624    9,634    9,643    9,912    9,805

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................    23,602   23,636   23,925   25,607   24,782
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........       (*)   16,933   16,948   17,412   16,803

   722          Food services & drinking places..................    38,161   38,093   38,549   37,618   37,224


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see  http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
      uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program.  The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
      adjusted estimates shown in this table.  Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated.  Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
      on the Internet at  http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

(3)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(4)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(5)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.






TABLE 1B.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--April 2009
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
                 (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change)

                                                                       4 month total
                                                                                 % Chg.   2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                        2009       from    Apr(2)   Mar      Feb      Apr      Mar
   Code                                                                           2008    (a)      (p)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................   1,286,827    -10.0   335,188  333,990  304,056  370,144  373,587

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............   1,065,968     -6.9   276,364  274,807  252,560  296,029  296,836

                   Retail .......................................   1,139,189    -11.3   297,332  295,440  269,015  332,714  335,581

                GAFO(3)..........................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   87,455   82,918   88,721   93,025

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     220,859    -22.7    58,824   59,183   51,496   74,115   76,751
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................     195,612    -25.0    52,152   52,531   45,544   67,527   70,283
   44111          New car dealers................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   40,605   35,304   53,160   56,311
   4413          Auto parts, acc. & tire stores..................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,652    5,952    6,588    6,468

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............      29,526    -14.3     7,307    7,572    7,219    8,525    8,838
   4421          Furniture stores................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    4,255    4,296    4,663    4,935
   4422          Home furnishings stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,317    2,923    3,862    3,903

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................     32,239     -6.9     7,184    7,933    8,481    8,153    8,703
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,145    6,759    6,435    6,833
   44312         Computer & software stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,788    1,722    1,718    1,870

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers      88,448    -11.2    27,617   23,456   18,457   30,843   25,492
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................         (*)       (*)      (*)   19,433   15,944   25,375   21,616

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     187,485      0.1    47,402   47,253   44,201   46,805   48,436
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     168,828     -0.5    42,362   42,489   39,800   42,168   43,753
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,136    2,897    3,126    3,106

   446          Health & personal care stores....................      83,061      2.8    21,073   21,481   19,843   20,000   20,692
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................         (*)       (*)      (*)   17,836   16,485   16,563   17,136

   447          Gasoline stations................................     101,494    -34.6    26,664   26,348   23,801   41,674   40,386

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........      60,997     -6.1    16,559   15,903   14,930   17,077   17,814
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)      653      589      806      773
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,848    2,343    3,355    3,308
   44814         Family clothing stores..........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,244    5,687    6,303    6,654
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,077    1,930    2,222    2,302

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......      25,521     -2.2     6,258    6,439    5,727    6,409    6,637

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     180,854      0.5    47,048   46,742   43,640   45,620   47,978
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................      54,903     -6.7    14,817   14,306   13,127   15,099   15,904
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)...............         (*)       (*)      (*)   14,716   13,495   15,559   16,386
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................         (*)       (*)      (*)   32,436   30,513   30,521   32,074
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................         (*)       (*)      (*)   28,822   27,188   27,001   28,496
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,614    3,325    3,520    3,578

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................      35,070     -4.9     9,090    9,079    8,570    9,298    9,184

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................      93,635     -5.8    22,306   24,051   22,650   24,195   24,670
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,645   15,118   16,576   15,980

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     147,638      1.7    37,856   38,550   35,041   37,430   38,006


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available  (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see  http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(3)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(4)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.






TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--April 2009

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Apr             Mar
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Mar     Apr     Feb     Mar
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     -0.4   -10.1    -1.3    -9.6

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     -0.5    -7.7    -1.2    -6.3

                        Retail ..................................     -0.4   -11.4    -1.3   -10.9

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     +0.2   -20.7    -2.0   -23.2
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers...............     +0.2   -23.0    -2.1   -25.7

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     -0.5   -14.2    -2.3   -14.2

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -2.8   -12.0    -7.8    -8.8

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     +0.3   -10.7    -0.8    -9.8

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     -1.0    -1.3    +0.2    +0.7
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     -1.1    -2.0    +0.1     0.0

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +0.4    +4.0    +0.6    +4.6

   447          Gasoline stations................................     -2.3   -36.4    -3.2   -34.5

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     -0.5    -6.5    -2.9    -6.6

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........    +0.3    -1.7    -0.8    -1.7

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     -0.1     0.0    -0.5    +0.8
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     -0.2    -6.1    -0.5    -5.8

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     -0.1    -2.9    -0.1    -1.7

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     -0.1    -7.8    -1.2    -4.6

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     +0.2    +1.4    -1.2    +2.3


  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.






TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--April 2009

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Apr             Mar
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Mar     Apr     Feb     Mar
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     +0.4    -9.4    +9.8   -10.6

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     +0.6    -6.6    +8.8    -7.4

                        Retail ..................................     +0.6   -10.6    +9.8   -12.0

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     -0.6   -20.6   +14.9   -22.9
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers................    -0.7   -22.8   +15.3   -25.3

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     -3.5   -14.3    +4.9   -14.3

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -9.4   -11.9    -6.5    -8.8

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    +17.7   -10.5   +27.1    -8.0

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +0.3    +1.3    +6.9    -2.4
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     -0.3    +0.5    +6.8    -2.9

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     -1.9    +5.4    +8.3    +3.8

   447          Gasoline stations................................     +1.2   -36.0   +10.7   -34.8

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     +4.1    -3.0    +6.5   -10.7

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........    -2.8    -2.4   +12.4    -3.0

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     +0.7    +3.1    +7.1    -2.6
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     +3.6    -1.9    +9.0   -10.0

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     +0.1    -2.2    +5.9    -1.1

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     -7.3    -7.8    +6.2    -2.5

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     -1.8    +1.1   +10.0    +1.4

  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--APRIL 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.

(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: May 13, 2009