FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

THURSDAY, JUNE 11, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Timothy Winters / Ian Thomas                                                                                                                                                                                            CB09-89
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


MAY 2009

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $340.0 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (0.5%)* from the previous month, but 9.6 percent (0.7%) below May 2008. Total sales for the March through May 2009 period were down 9.7 percent (0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2009 percent change was revised from -0.4 percent (0.5%)* to -0.2 percent (0.2%)*.

Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (0.7%)* from April 2009, but 10.8 percent (0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 33.8 percent (1.5%) from May 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 19.6 percent (2.3%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for June is scheduled to be released July 14, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2009

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business May(3) Apr Mar May Apr Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 339,993 338,422 339,228 375,912 376,009 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 284,708 283,399 283,970 307,175 305,873 Retail ....................................... 301,682 300,168 301,057 338,049 338,429 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 93,600 93,891 98,549 97,740 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 55,285 55,023 55,258 68,737 70,136 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 48,658 48,448 48,699 62,181 63,645 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,767 7,799 7,885 9,110 9,147 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,383 8,425 8,502 9,641 9,471 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,574 6,651 7,732 7,562 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,851 1,851 1,909 1,909 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,612 24,299 24,435 27,451 27,473 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 20,202 20,360 23,497 23,715 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 49,028 48,848 48,881 48,752 48,930 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 43,724 43,543 43,591 43,698 43,879 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,498 3,504 3,404 3,405 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 21,291 21,145 21,088 20,285 20,284 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 17,566 17,524 16,812 16,781 447 Gasoline stations................................ 28,105 27,119 27,326 42,472 41,716 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,306 17,234 17,359 18,600 18,638 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,939 2,931 3,231 3,292 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,095 2,157 2,316 2,295 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,244 7,299 7,244 7,460 7,367 452 General merchandise stores....................... 49,515 49,620 49,722 50,368 49,746 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 15,768 15,880 15,922 16,978 16,924 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 33,740 33,800 33,390 32,822 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 29,893 29,960 29,585 29,065 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,847 3,840 3,805 3,757 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,562 9,687 9,653 9,785 9,905 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,584 23,670 23,704 25,388 25,616 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 17,011 17,000 17,142 17,412 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 38,311 38,254 38,171 37,863 37,580 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2009

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 5 month total % Chg. 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2009 from May(2) Apr Mar May Apr Code 2008 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 1,643,180 -10.2 355,414 335,968 334,149 399,979 370,144 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,363,212 -7.1 295,621 277,794 275,000 323,249 296,029 Retail ....................................... 1,454,609 -11.5 314,728 297,944 295,520 359,693 332,714 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 87,174 87,477 98,891 88,721 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 279,968 -22.7 59,793 58,174 59,149 76,730 74,115 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 248,013 -25.0 53,086 51,500 52,498 69,892 67,527 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 39,467 40,575 54,724 53,160 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,674 6,651 6,838 6,588 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 37,175 -14.8 7,674 7,253 7,601 9,146 8,525 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 3,965 4,262 4,991 4,663 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,288 3,339 4,155 3,862 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 40,064 -8.2 7,753 7,260 7,929 9,006 8,153 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 5,581 6,139 7,322 6,435 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,679 1,790 1,684 1,718 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 118,301 -11.7 29,951 27,506 23,469 34,330 30,843 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 21,475 19,423 27,303 25,375 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 239,068 0.2 50,876 48,089 47,273 51,267 46,805 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 214,884 -0.3 45,386 43,020 42,501 45,927 42,168 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,257 3,140 3,574 3,126 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 104,666 3.0 21,525 21,103 21,531 20,833 20,000 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 17,636 17,892 17,249 16,563 447 Gasoline stations................................ 132,406 -34.3 30,382 27,200 26,342 46,337 41,674 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 78,225 -6.9 17,368 16,432 15,890 19,062 17,077 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 748 646 860 806 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,133 2,846 3,538 3,355 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,174 6,243 7,069 6,303 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,158 2,071 2,383 2,222 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 32,380 -2.1 6,795 6,328 6,433 6,975 6,409 452 General merchandise stores....................... 231,407 0.0 50,546 47,044 46,753 51,468 45,620 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 70,442 -6.8 15,551 14,805 14,306 16,776 15,099 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 15,226 14,716 17,289 15,559 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 32,239 32,447 34,692 30,521 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 28,488 28,822 30,739 27,001 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,751 3,625 3,953 3,520 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 45,300 -4.7 10,157 9,170 9,072 10,663 9,298 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 115,649 -6.2 21,908 22,385 24,078 23,876 24,195 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 16,075 16,660 16,611 16,576 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 188,571 1.7 40,686 38,024 38,629 40,286 37,430 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2009

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) May Apr 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Apr May Mar Apr Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.5 -9.6 -0.2 -10.0 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.5 -7.3 -0.2 -7.3 Retail .................................. +0.5 -10.8 -0.3 -11.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.5 -19.6 -0.4 -21.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +0.4 -21.7 -0.5 -23.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.4 -14.7 -1.1 -14.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.5 -13.0 -0.9 -11.0 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.3 -10.3 -0.6 -11.6 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +0.6 -0.1 -0.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.4 +0.1 -0.1 -0.8 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.7 +5.0 +0.3 +4.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ +3.6 -33.8 -0.8 -35.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.4 -7.0 -0.7 -7.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.8 -2.9 +0.8 -0.9 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.2 -1.7 -0.2 -0.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.7 -7.1 -0.3 -6.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.3 -2.3 +0.4 -2.2 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.4 -7.1 -0.1 -7.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.1 +1.2 +0.2 +1.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2009

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) May Apr 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Apr May Mar Apr Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +5.8 -11.1 +0.5 -9.2 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +6.4 -8.5 +1.0 -6.2 Retail .................................. +5.6 -12.5 +0.8 -10.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +2.8 -22.1 -1.6 -21.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +3.1 -24.0 -1.9 -23.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +5.8 -16.1 -4.6 -14.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +6.8 -13.9 -8.4 -11.0 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +8.9 -12.8 +17.2 -10.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +5.8 -0.8 +1.7 +2.7 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +5.5 -1.2 +1.2 +2.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +2.0 +3.3 -2.0 +5.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +11.7 -34.4 +3.3 -34.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +5.7 -8.9 +3.4 -3.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +7.4 -2.6 -1.6 -1.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +7.4 -1.8 +0.6 +3.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +5.0 -7.3 +3.5 -1.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +10.8 -4.7 +1.1 -1.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -2.1 -8.2 -7.0 -7.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +7.0 +1.0 -1.6 +1.6 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MAY 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is 1.65 x 0.9 percent or 1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value 1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: June 11, 2009