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Haitian Population Set to Rebound After Earthquake, According to U.S. Census Bureau

     The population of Haiti is projected to increase from 9.6 million in 2010 to 13.4 million by 2050, according to new data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. This future growth follows an estimated population decline during the past year caused by the January 2010 earthquake.

     The Dominican Republic, which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti, has nearly the same total population — 9.8 million in 2010 — and also is expected to grow to a comparable size in 2050 — 13.7 million.

    These figures come from the Census Bureau's International Data Base, a compilation of population estimates and projections for 227 countries and areas. This release includes revisions for 28 countries, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

     For Haiti, the new demographic figures incorporate the effects of the January earthquake, which resulted in 230,000 deaths — nearly three times the estimated deaths in all of 2009 — according to the Haitian government. These two countries have been close in population for many years, and indeed, Haiti surpassed the Dominican Republic in 2004, but the earthquake pushed Haiti's population below that of the Dominican Republic again by midyear 2010. This relationship is projected to remain the same for the next few decades because of similar levels of projected growth rates.

     In 2009, both countries had population growth rates of 1.4 percent and had similar levels of net migration and natural increase (births minus deaths), but the composition of natural increase differed. The 2009 death rate estimate in the Dominican Republic averaged 4.3 deaths per 1,000 population, while in Haiti it was twice that level. In 2009, the birth rate in the Dominican Republic was an estimated 20.2 births per 1,000 population and in Haiti 25.7 births per 1,000 population.

     “Up-to-date estimates of population characteristics will assist in both the immediate recovery effort in Haiti, as well as the long-term rebuilding of the country's basic infrastructure,” said Peter Johnson, a senior demographer in the Census Bureau's Population Division.

     The island of Hispaniola has a high population density with greater density in Haiti — about 350 people per square kilometer — than in the Dominican Republic — about 200 people per square kilometer.

     The Census Bureau's International Data Base includes projections by sex and age to 100 years and older for countries and other areas with populations of 5,000 or more and provides information on population size and growth, mortality, fertility and net migration.

The Census Bureau prepares national estimates and projections for all countries using census and survey data, vital statistics, administrative statistics from the countries, and information from multinational organizations that collect and publish data for these countries. The Census Bureau's evaluation process focuses on internal and temporal consistency of data. Information on statistical measures of uncertainty (e.g., standard errors) are considered in the evaluation when such data are available.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau | Public Information Office | | Last Revised: September 09, 2014