2002 Methodology

Methodology: Resident Population Estimates of the United States

Resident Population Universe Definition

Estimates of the United States resident population include persons resident in the 50 States and the District of Columbia. They exclude residents of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and residents of the outlying areas under United States sovereignty or jurisdiction (principally American Samoa, Guam, Virgin Islands of the United States, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands). The definition of residence conforms to the criterion used in the Census 2000 which defines a resident of a specified area as a person "usually resident" in that area. Estimates of resident population exclude the United States Armed Forces overseas, as well as civilian United States citizens whose usual place of residence is outside the United States.

Postcensal Estimation of Resident Population

Estimates of the United States population were derived quarterly by updating the resident population enumerated in Census 2000 through the components of population change. The following formula was applied to update each group:

  1. 2000 enumeration of resident population,
  2. + births to U.S. resident women,
  3. - deaths to U.S. residents,
  4. + net international migration,
  5. + net movement of U.S. Armed Forces and civilian citizens to the United States.
  1. The 2000 enumerated resident population comes from the April 1, 2000 Decennial Census. For vintage 2002, the estimates base reflects modifications to the Census 2000 population as documented in the Count Question Resolution program.

  2. Registered births to United States resident women are estimated from data supplied by the National Center for Health Statistics. The primary source for this birth data can be found in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Volume 50, Number 5, "Births: Final Data for 2000," and similar publications of NCHS.

  3. Registered deaths to United States residents are also estimated from data supplied by the National Center for Health Statistics. The primary source for this death data can be found in the National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics Report, Volume 50, Number 15, "Deaths: Final Data for 2000," and similar NCHS publications.

  4. The net international migration component in the population estimates includes: (1) legal immigration to the United States, (2) emigration of foreign born and native people from the United States, (3) net movement between the United States and Puerto Rico, (4) estimates of temporary migrants, and (5) estimates of net residual foreign-born population, which include unauthorized migration.

    For the first time, the national estimates of the international migration component incorporated data available from the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey (C2SS) and the 2001 Supplementary Survey (SSO1) along with estimates developed from the Demographic Analysis and Population Estimates (DAPE) project (See Deardorff and Blumerman, 2001, "Evaluating Components of International Migration: Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status in 2000", Population Division Working Paper Series No. 58).

    An estimate of the net change in the combined components of legal immigration to the United States, emigration of the foreign born population from the United States, temporary migrants, and the net residual foreign-born population for the July 1, 2000 to July 1, 2001 period were developed from the survey data. The C2SS data on the foreign born population were survived forward and compared to the estimates of the foreign born population derived from the SS01 data. The estimates from the DAPE project provided the estimates of the emigration of the native population and the net movement between the United States and Puerto Rico.

    Independent estimates of each of the components of international migration are not available. However, the analysis of the data supplied by the Immigration and Naturalization Service on the flow of legal permanent residents for the 2000 to 2001 period support the estimates derived from the survey data.

  5. The movement of federal employees and their dependents into and out of the United States consists of the movement of the active duty Armed Forces and their dependents and federal civilian citizens and their dependents. Armed Forces overseas strength statistics are supplied by the five branches of the Armed Forces in the Departments of Defense (Army, Navy, Marines, and Air Force) and Transportation (Coast Guard).

Notes

Population estimates are subject to revision, as revised input data become available. These revisions normally occur once a year.