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Subnational Projections Toolkit (SPToolkit) Documentation

The Toolkit includes Excel workbooks, associated methods documentation, and a User’s Guide for the tools included in the Toolkit as well as the Census Bureau’s Rural-Urban Projection (RUP) program and companion program for combining RUP projections (RUPAGG). A brief explanation of the calculation performed by each of the workbooks is presented below.

Cohort-component methods

PROJTFR32 This workbook calculates consistent total fertility rates (TFRs) for up to 32 subnational area populations (e.g., provinces or states) given initial levels of subnational area TFRs and the national TFR trend.

PROJE032 This workbook calculates consistent life expectancies at birth (e(0)) by sex for up to 32 subnational areas given initial levels of subnational area e(0)s and national e(0) trends.

RUPSubAdj This workbook proportionally adjusts subnational populations and components of change by age and sex from RUP projections to agree with a national-level RUP.

Non-cohort-component methods

SALGST This workbook projects the total populations of subnational areas by using a logistic function and controls projected subnational populations to a projected population series for a higher-level geographic area. The resulting projections are consistent with the higher-level series.

CTBL32 This workbook adjusts subpopulations by age to match the age distribution of a higher-level total population. The workbook iteratively adjusts subpopulations by age and region with a contingency table.

User’s Guide

This Guide describes the use of the Toolkit workbooks along with the Census Bureau’s Rural-Urban Projection (RUP) program for preparing both cohort-component and non-cohort-component projections. It also describes the use of cohort-component output to control either mathematical extrapolation of smaller area population totals or extrapolated smaller area totals with age-sex detail.

Subnational Projections Toolkit User’s Guide [PDF - 1.5M]

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau | International Programs |  Last Revised: 2013-08-23T11:28:11.343-04:00