POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES BY AGE, SEX, RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN, AND NATIVITY: 1999 TO 2100 Source: Population Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233 (301) 763-2436 Internet Release Date: January 13, 2000 Last Revised Date: January 19, 2001 I. DATA FILE DESCRIPTION (NP-D1-A) Annual Projections of the Resident Population by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: Lowest, Middle, Highest, and Zero International Migration Series, 1999 to 2100 The files contain the population projections for the resident population of the United States for the years 1999 to 2100 by single year of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The data are available in ten-year intervals with exception to the first file (P1999_00) with only two years, 1999 and 2000. Files are available for the lowest, middle, highest, and zero international migration series and are only accessible on the World Wide Web. There are no corresponding electronic products. II. UNIVERSE DESCRIPTION The projections are produced for the resident population of the United States which includes people who reside in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. They exclude residents of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and residents of the outlying areas under United States sovereignty or jurisdiction (principally American Samoa, Guam, Virgin Islands of the United States, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands). The definition of residence conforms to the criteria used in the 1990 census, which defines a resident of a specified area as a person "usually resident" in that area. The projections exclude the United States Armed Forces Overseas, as well as civilian United States citizens whose usual place of residence is outside the United States. III. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION FILE TYPE: ASCII FILE SIZE: File Name* Number of Records Columns Variables Bytes P1999_00.A 45,084 204 220 24 P2001_10.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2011_20.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2021_30.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2031_40.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2041_50.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2051_60.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2061_70.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2071_80.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2081_90.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 P2091_00.A 225,420 1,020 220 24 SORT SEQUENCE: The records are first sorted by the series and reference date in chronological order. For each reference date, the first record lists the population counts for all ages combined. The remaining records list the population counts by single year of age in ascending order. * The extension represents the series: A=middle B=lowest C=highest J=zero international migration series. IV. EXPLANATION OF DATA FIELDS Series: The extension for each file name describes the series. The letter "A" represents middle series data; "B," the lowest series; "C," the highest series; and "J," the zero international migration series. Year: Annually from 1999 to 2100. Population data are as of July 1. Birth, death, net migration to the U.S., natural increase, and net change data are by calendar year. Age: The first record for each reference date has an age code of "999," which lists the population counts for all ages combined. Each age code that follows represents a single year of age, except for "100," which lists the population counts for people 100 years of age and over (centenarians). Race and Hispanic The data are shown for the Total; White; Black; American Origin: Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and Asian and Pacific Islander populations. Data are also shown for the Hispanic origin population, and the non-Hispanic White; non-Hispanic Black; non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander populations. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. V. RECORD LAYOUT: Population Files: File Name File Description P1999_00 US resident population projections from 1999 to 2000 P2001_10 US resident population projections from 2001 to 2010 P2011_20 US resident population projections from 2011 to 2020 P2021_30 US resident population projections from 2021 to 2030 P2031_40 US resident population projections from 2031 to 2040 P2041_50 US resident population projections from 2041 to 2050 P2051_60 US resident population projections from 2051 to 2060 P2061_70 US resident population projections from 2061 to 2070 P2071_80 US resident population projections from 2071 to 2080 P2081_90 US resident population projections from 2081 to 2090 P2091_00 US resident population projections from 2091 to 2100 Location Length Type Data 1 1 Character Series (A, B, C, or J) 2 1 (Blank) (Blank) 3-6 4 Numeric Year (four digits) 7-9 3 Numeric Age (years) 10 1 (Blank) (Blank) 11-20 10 Numeric Total population 21-30 10 Numeric Total male population 31-40 10 Numeric Total female population 41-50 10 Numeric White male population 51-60 10 Numeric White female population 61-70 10 Numeric Black male population 71-80 10 Numeric Black female population 81-90 10 Numeric American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut male population 91-100 10 Numeric American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut female population 101-110 10 Numeric Asian and Pacific Islanders male population 111-120 10 Numeric Asian and Pacific Islanders female population 121-130 10 Numeric Hispanic origin male population 131-140 10 Numeric Hispanic origin female population 141-150 10 Numeric White non-Hispanic male population 151-160 10 Numeric White non-Hispanic female population 161-170 10 Numeric Black non-Hispanic male population 171-180 10 Numeric Black non-Hispanic female population 181-190 10 Numeric American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut non-Hispanic male population 191-200 10 Numeric American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut non-Hispanic female population 201-210 10 Numeric Asian and Pacific Islanders non-Hispanic male population 211-220 10 Numeric Asian and Pacific Islanders non-Hispanic female population VI. RACE AND ETHNIC DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS The racial classification used by the Census Bureau generally adheres to the guidelines in Federal Statistical Directive No. 15, issued by the Office of Management and Budget, which provides standards on race and Hispanic origin categories for statistical reporting to be used by all Federal agencies. The race and Hispanic origin categories are defined as follows: American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut: A person having origins in any of the original peoples of North America, who maintains cultural identification through tribal affiliation or community recognition. Asian and Pacific Islander: A person having origins in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asian, the Indian subcontinent, or the Pacific Islands. This area includes, for example, China, India, Japan, Korea, the Philippine Islands, and Samoa. Black: A person having origins in any of the black racial groups of Africa. Hispanic: A person of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or South American or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race. White: A person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, North Africa, or the Middle East. VII. ALTERNATIVE PROJECTION SERIES Four alternative projections series are available. The assumptions used for each series are as follows: ASSUMPTIONS Life Net Fertility Expectancy Immigration ------------------------------------------ Lowest Series Low Low Low Middle Series Middle Middle Middle Highest Series High High High Zero International Migration Series Middle Middle Zero The zero international migration series assumes that net international migration is zero throughout the projection horizon. Therefore, the net migration rate to the U.S. is zero. However, a small net balance of U.S. citizens is assumed to migrate to the U.S. from abroad, and is shown as the net migration to the U.S. in the zero international migration components table. VIII. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY The population projections are created using the cohort-component model. For a detailed description of the model, the assumptions, and the data used to create these projections, see the working paper, "Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100, Working Paper #38." This paper can be obtained at the national projections internet site on the World Wide Web or by contacting the Statistical Information Staff by telephone at (301) 763-2422, or by e-mail at POP@CENSUS.GOV (please include telephone number).