STATE POPULATION RANKINGS SUMMARY SOURCE OF DATA: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Population Paper Listing #47, Population Electronic Product #45. ARKANSAS' POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 1995 TO 2025 OVERVIEW * Arkansas had a population of 2.5 million people in 1995. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state ranked as the 33rd most populous. By 2000, it is projected to be the 33rd most populous with 2.6 million people. By 2025, it is projected to be the 32nd most populous with 3.1 million people. * Over the three decades, Arkansas' total population is expected to increase 572 thousand people. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state's net gain ranks as the 32nd largest. Its rate of population change, at 23 percent, ranks as the 24th largest. From 1995 to 2000, the state would have a net increase of 148 thousand people, which would rank as the 26th largest net gain in the nation. * 0.9 percent of the nation's population resided in Arkansas in 1995 (ranked 33rd largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia), compared with 1 percent in 2000 (ranked 33rd) and 0.9 percent in 2025 (ranked 32nd). * Arkansas is expected to gain 31 thousand people through international migration between 1995 and 2025, placing it 39th largest among the net international migration gains among the 50 states and District of Columbia. (more) -2- * Arkansas is projected to rank 12th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia in the number of persons gained through net internal migration between 1995 and 2025, gaining 436 thousand persons. * During the 1995 to 2025 period, Arkansas could have 1 million births and 979 thousand deaths. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state could rank 35th largest in births and 30th largest in deaths. It could rank 32nd largest in terms of its natural increase (birth minus deaths). AGE GROUPS * The number and proportion of Arkansas' population that is aged 18 and over is expected to increase from 1.8 million or 73.8 percent in 1995 to 2 million or 75.2 percent in 2000. This population is expected to increase to 2.4 million or 79.5 percent in 2025. * All states and the District of Columbia are projected to show a decline in the proportion of youth (under 20 years old) in their populations. The percentage of Arkansas' population classified as youth is projected to decrease from 29.1 percent in 1995 to 22.8 percent in 2025. Its rank among the 50 states and District of Columbia is expected to be the 21st largest proportion of youth in 1995 and the 48th largest proportion of youth in 2025. (more) -3- * As the Baby Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) reaches retirement age, the growth of the elderly population (65 and over) is expected to accelerate rapidly. The size of the elderly population is projected to increase in all states and the District of Columbia over the 30 year period. The proportion of Arkansas' population classified as elderly is expected to increase from 14.5 percent in 1995 to 23.9 percent in 2025. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state is projected to have the 6th highest proportion of elderly in 1995 and the 5th highest proportion of elderly in 2025. * Arkansas' dependency ratio, the number of youth (under age 20) and elderly (ages 65 and over) there would be for every 100 people of working ages (20 to 64 years of age), could rise from 77.2 in 1995 to 87.7 in 2025. The 1995 and 2025 ratios rank the state as the 11th largest and 14th largest, respectively, among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (more) -4- RACE AND ETHNIC GROUPS * By 2025, non-Hispanic Whites would comprise 81 percent of Arkansas' population, down from 82 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic African Americans would comprise 15.2 percent of the state population in 2025, down from 15.7 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut would comprise 0.5 percent of the 1995 state population and 0.6 percent of the 2025 state population. Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders would increase from 0.6 percent of the 1995 state population to 1 percent of the 2025 state population. Persons of Hispanic origin, who may be of any race, is projected to increase from 1.1 percent of the 1995 state population to 2.2 percent of the 2025 state population. * Between 1995 and 2025, the number of non-Hispanic Whites residing in Arkansas is projected to increase by 439 thousand, compared to a gain of 73 thousand for non- Hispanic African Americans, a gain of 6 thousand for non- Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, a gain of 14 thousand for the non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and a gain of 39 thousand for persons of Hispanic origin. (more) -5- * The numeric change in Arkansas' non-Hispanic White population from 1995 to 2025 ranks as the 15th largest gain among the 50 states and District of Columbia. In the same period, the non-Hispanic African American population change ranks as the 31st largest gain, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population change ranks as the 26th largest gain. The non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population change ranks as the 42nd largest gain, while the Hispanic population change ranks as the 39th largest gain. * During the 30 year period, Arkansas' non- Hispanic White population grew by a rate of 21.6 percent. The non-Hispanic African American population grew by 18.6 percent, the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population grew by 47.1 percent, the non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population grew by 91.4 percent, and the Hispanic population grew by 138.8 percent. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the rate of growth for non-Hispanic Whites ranks 15th largest. The non-Hispanic African American growth rate ranks 47th largest, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut growth rate ranks 21st largest. The non- Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander growth rate ranks 49th largest, while the Hispanic growth rate ranks 21st largest. (more) -6- * The number and proportion of Arkansas' voting age population that is non-Hispanic White is projected to be 1.7 million or 83.8 percent in 2000. Comparable figures for the other race and ethnic groups are 272 thousand and 13.8 percent for non-Hispanic African Americans, 11 thousand and 0.6 percent for non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, 13 thousand and 0.7 percent for non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and 23 thousand and 1.2 percent for persons of Hispanic origin. Source: Figures are from Series A (the Preferred Series) as reported in Campbell, Paul R., 1996, "Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025," Report PPL-47, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division. Most of these data are available in files found on the Population Projections section of the World Wide Web's Census Bureau Home Page (http://www.census.gov).