STATE POPULATION RANKINGS SUMMARY SOURCE OF DATA: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Population Paper Listing #47, Population Electronic Product #45. NORTH CAROLINA'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 1995 TO 2025 OVERVIEW * North Carolina had a population of 7.2 million people in 1995. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state ranked as the 11th most populous. By 2000, it is projected to be the 11th most populous with 7.8 million people. By 2025, it is projected to be the 11th most populous with 9.3 million people. * Over the three decades, North Carolina's total population is expected to increase 2.2 million people. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state's net gain ranks as the 7th largest. Its rate of population change, at 29.9 percent, ranks as the 16th largest. From 1995 to 2000, the state would have a net increase of 582 thousand people, which would rank as the 5th largest net gain in the nation. * 2.7 percent of the nation's population resided in North Carolina in 1995 (ranked 11th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia), compared with 2.8 percent in 2000 (ranked 11th) and 2.8 percent in 2025 (ranked 11th). * North Carolina is expected to gain 199 thousand people through international migration between 1995 and 2025, placing it 18th largest among the net international migration gains among the 50 states and District of Columbia. (more) -2- * North Carolina is projected to rank 3rd largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia in the number of persons gained through net internal migration between 1995 and 2025, gaining 1.3 million persons. * During the 1995 to 2025 period, North Carolina could have 3 million births and 2.6 million deaths. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state could rank 11th largest in births and 9th largest in deaths. It could rank 7th largest in terms of its natural increase (birth minus deaths). AGE GROUPS * The number and proportion of North Carolina's population that is aged 18 and over is expected to increase from 5.4 million or 75 percent in 1995 to 5.9 million or 75.5 percent in 2000. This population is expected to increase to 7.4 million or 79.3 percent in 2025. * All states and the District of Columbia are projected to show a decline in the proportion of youth (under 20 years old) in their populations. The percentage of North Carolina's population classified as youth is projected to decrease from 27.7 percent in 1995 to 23.2 percent in 2025. Its rank among the 50 states and District of Columbia is expected to be the 38th largest proportion of youth in 1995 and the 44th largest proportion of youth in 2025. (more) -3- * As the Baby Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) reaches retirement age, the growth of the elderly population (65 and over) is expected to accelerate rapidly. The size of the elderly population is projected to increase in all states and the District of Columbia over the 30 year period. The proportion of North Carolina's population classified as elderly is expected to increase from 12.5 percent in 1995 to 21.4 percent in 2025. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state is projected to have the 31st highest proportion of elderly in 1995 and the 11th highest proportion of elderly in 2025. * North Carolina's dependency ratio, the number of youth (under age 20) and elderly (ages 65 and over) there would be for every 100 people of working ages (20 to 64 years of age), could rise from 67.1 in 1995 to 80.6 in 2025. The 1995 and 2025 ratios rank the state as the 40th largest and 34th largest, respectively, among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (more) -4- RACE AND ETHNIC GROUPS * By 2025, non-Hispanic Whites would comprise 71 percent of North Carolina's population, down from 74.4 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic African Americans would comprise 23.8 percent of the state population in 2025, up from 22.1 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut would comprise 1.2 percent of the 1995 state population and 1.1 percent of the 2025 state population. Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders would increase from 1 percent of the 1995 state population to 1.8 percent of the 2025 state population. Persons of Hispanic origin, who may be of any race, is projected to increase from 1.4 percent of the 1995 state population to 2.2 percent of the 2025 state population. * Between 1995 and 2025, the number of non-Hispanic Whites residing in North Carolina is projected to increase by 1.3 million, compared to a gain of 637 thousand for non- Hispanic African Americans, a gain of 20 thousand for non- Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, a gain of 98 thousand for the non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and a gain of 110 thousand for persons of Hispanic origin. (more) -5- * The numeric change in North Carolina's non-Hispanic White population from 1995 to 2025 ranks as the 4th largest gain among the 50 states and District of Columbia. In the same period, the non-Hispanic African American population change ranks as the 6th largest gain, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population change ranks as the 11th largest gain. The non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population change ranks as the 22nd largest gain, while the Hispanic population change ranks as the 30th largest gain. * During the 30 year period, North Carolina's non- Hispanic White population grew by a rate of 24.1 percent. The non-Hispanic African American population grew by 40.1 percent, the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population grew by 23.6 percent, the non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population grew by 138 percent, and the Hispanic population grew by 110.3 percent. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the rate of growth for non-Hispanic Whites ranks 7th largest. The non-Hispanic African American growth rate ranks 31st largest, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut growth rate ranks 37th largest. The non- Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander growth rate ranks 17th largest, while the Hispanic growth rate ranks 36th largest. (more) -6- * The number and proportion of North Carolina's voting age population that is non-Hispanic White is projected to be 4.5 million or 76 percent in 2000. Comparable figures for the other race and ethnic groups are 1.2 million and 20.4 percent for non-Hispanic African Americans, 63 thousand and 1.1 percent for non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, 66 thousand and 1.1 percent for non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and 81 thousand and 1.4 percent for persons of Hispanic origin. Source: Figures are from Series A (the Preferred Series) as reported in Campbell, Paul R., 1996, "Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025," Report PPL-47, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division. Most of these data are available in files found on the Population Projections section of the World Wide Web's Census Bureau Home Page (http://www.census.gov).