STATE POPULATION RANKINGS SUMMARY SOURCE OF DATA: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Population Paper Listing #47, Population Electronic Product #45. NEW JERSEY'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 1995 TO 2025 OVERVIEW * New Jersey had a population of 7.9 million people in 1995. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state ranked as the 9th most populous. By 2000, it is projected to be the 9th most populous with 8.2 million people. By 2025, it is projected to be the 10th most populous with 9.6 million people. * Over the three decades, New Jersey's total population is expected to increase 1.6 million people. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state's net gain ranks as the 10th largest. Its rate of population change, at 20.3 percent, ranks as the 27th largest. From 1995 to 2000, the state would have a net increase of 232 thousand people, which would rank as the 15th largest net gain in the nation. * 3 percent of the nation's population resided in New Jersey in 1995 (ranked 9th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia), compared with 3 percent in 2000 (ranked 9th) and 2.9 percent in 2025 (ranked 10th). * New Jersey is expected to gain 1.2 million people through international migration between 1995 and 2025, placing it 4th largest among the net international migration gains among the 50 states and District of Columbia. (more) -2- * New Jersey is projected to rank 45th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia in the number of persons gained through net internal migration between 1995 and 2025, losing 747 thousand persons. * During the 1995 to 2025 period, New Jersey could have 3.5 million births and 2.5 million deaths. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state could rank 10th largest in births and 10th largest in deaths. It could rank 10th largest in terms of its natural increase (birth minus deaths). AGE GROUPS * The number and proportion of New Jersey's population that is aged 18 and over is expected to increase from 6 million or 75.3 percent in 1995 to 6.2 million or 75.5 percent in 2000. This population is expected to increase to 7.3 million or 76.8 percent in 2025. * All states and the District of Columbia are projected to show a decline in the proportion of youth (under 20 years old) in their populations. The percentage of New Jersey's population classified as youth is projected to decrease from 27.1 percent in 1995 to 25.6 percent in 2025. Its rank among the 50 states and District of Columbia is expected to be the 43rd largest proportion of youth in 1995 and the 23rd largest proportion of youth in 2025. (more) -3- * As the Baby Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) reaches retirement age, the growth of the elderly population (65 and over) is expected to accelerate rapidly. The size of the elderly population is projected to increase in all states and the District of Columbia over the 30 year period. The proportion of New Jersey's population classified as elderly is expected to increase from 13.7 percent in 1995 to 17.3 percent in 2025. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state is projected to have the 15th highest proportion of elderly in 1995 and the 40th highest proportion of elderly in 2025. * New Jersey's dependency ratio, the number of youth (under age 20) and elderly (ages 65 and over) there would be for every 100 people of working ages (20 to 64 years of age), could rise from 69 in 1995 to 75 in 2025. The 1995 and 2025 ratios rank the state as the 35th largest and 49th largest, respectively, among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (more) -4- RACE AND ETHNIC GROUPS * By 2025, non-Hispanic Whites would comprise 55.2 percent of New Jersey's population, down from 70.9 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic African Americans would comprise 15.1 percent of the state population in 2025, up from 13.1 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut would comprise 0.2 percent of the 1995 state population and 0.2 percent of the 2025 state population. Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders would increase from 4.5 percent of the 1995 state population to 10 percent of the 2025 state population. Persons of Hispanic origin, who may be of any race, is projected to increase from 11.3 percent of the 1995 state population to 19.5 percent of the 2025 state population. * Between 1995 and 2025, the number of non-Hispanic Whites residing in New Jersey is projected to decrease by 357 thousand, compared to a gain of 401 thousand for non- Hispanic African Americans, a gain of 3 thousand for non- Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, a gain of 603 thousand for the non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and a gain of 963 thousand for persons of Hispanic origin. (more) -5- * The numeric change in New Jersey's non-Hispanic White population from 1995 to 2025 ranks as the 50th largest gain among the 50 states and District of Columbia. In the same period, the non-Hispanic African American population change ranks as the 10th largest gain, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population change ranks as the 37th largest gain. The non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population change ranks as the 3rd largest gain, while the Hispanic population change ranks as the 7th largest gain. * During the 30 year period, New Jersey's non- Hispanic White population shrank by a rate of 6.3 percent. The non-Hispanic African American population grew by 38.5 percent, the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population grew by 21 percent, the non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population grew by 169.2 percent, and the Hispanic population grew by 107.5 percent. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the rate of growth for non-Hispanic Whites ranks 50th largest. The non-Hispanic African American growth rate ranks 32nd largest, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut growth rate ranks 41st largest. The non- Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander growth rate ranks 6th largest, while the Hispanic growth rate ranks 39th largest. (more) -6- * The number and proportion of New Jersey's voting age population that is non-Hispanic White is projected to be 4.3 million or 70.2 percent in 2000. Comparable figures for the other race and ethnic groups are 774 thousand and 12.5 percent for non-Hispanic African Americans, 10 thousand and 0.2 percent for non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, 335 thousand and 5.4 percent for non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and 721 thousand and 11.7 percent for persons of Hispanic origin. Source: Figures are from Series A (the Preferred Series) as reported in Campbell, Paul R., 1996, "Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025," Report PPL-47, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division. Most of these data are available in files found on the Population Projections section of the World Wide Web's Census Bureau Home Page (http://www.census.gov).