STATE POPULATION RANKINGS SUMMARY SOURCE OF DATA: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Population Paper Listing #47, Population Electronic Product #45. PENNSYLVANIA'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 1995 TO 2025 OVERVIEW * Pennsylvania had a population of 12.1 million people in 1995. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state ranked as the 5th most populous. By 2000, it is projected to be the 5th most populous with 12.2 million people. By 2025, it is projected to be the 6th most populous with 12.7 million people. * Over the three decades, Pennsylvania's total population is expected to increase 611 thousand people. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state's net gain ranks as the 29th largest. Its rate of population change, at 5.1 percent, ranks as the 50th largest. From 1995 to 2000, the state would have a net increase of 130 thousand people, which would rank as the 28th largest net gain in the nation. * 4.6 percent of the nation's population resided in Pennsylvania in 1995 (ranked 5th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia), compared with 4.4 percent in 2000 (ranked 5th) and 3.8 percent in 2025 (ranked 6th). * Pennsylvania is expected to gain 405 thousand people through international migration between 1995 and 2025, placing it 10th largest among the net international migration gains among the 50 states and District of Columbia. (more) -2- * Pennsylvania is projected to rank 44th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia in the number of persons gained through net internal migration between 1995 and 2025, losing 342 thousand persons. * During the 1995 to 2025 period, Pennsylvania could have 4.5 million births and 4.3 million deaths. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state could rank 6th largest in births and 5th largest in deaths. It could rank 29th largest in terms of its natural increase (birth minus deaths). AGE GROUPS * The number and proportion of Pennsylvania's population that is aged 18 and over is expected to increase from 9.2 million or 75.9 percent in 1995 to 9.3 million or 76.2 percent in 2000. This population is expected to increase to 9.9 million or 78 percent in 2025. * All states and the District of Columbia are projected to show a decline in the proportion of youth (under 20 years old) in their populations. The percentage of Pennsylvania's population classified as youth is projected to decrease from 26.6 percent in 1995 to 24.4 percent in 2025. Its rank among the 50 states and District of Columbia is expected to be the 46th largest proportion of youth in 1995 and the 37th largest proportion of youth in 2025. (more) -3- * As the Baby Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) reaches retirement age, the growth of the elderly population (65 and over) is expected to accelerate rapidly. The size of the elderly population is projected to increase in all states and the District of Columbia over the 30 year period. The proportion of Pennsylvania's population classified as elderly is expected to increase from 15.9 percent in 1995 to 21 percent in 2025. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state is projected to have the 2nd highest proportion of elderly in 1995 and the 16th highest proportion of elderly in 2025. * Pennsylvania's dependency ratio, the number of youth (under age 20) and elderly (ages 65 and over) there would be for every 100 people of working ages (20 to 64 years of age), could rise from 73.8 in 1995 to 83 in 2025. The 1995 and 2025 ratios rank the state as the 19th largest and 24th largest, respectively, among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (more) -4- RACE AND ETHNIC GROUPS * By 2025, non-Hispanic Whites would comprise 80.3 percent of Pennsylvania's population, down from 86.8 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic African Americans would comprise 11.4 percent of the state population in 2025, up from 9.4 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut would comprise 0.1 percent of the 1995 state population and 0.2 percent of the 2025 state population. Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders would increase from 1.4 percent of the 1995 state population to 3.1 percent of the 2025 state population. Persons of Hispanic origin, who may be of any race, is projected to increase from 2.3 percent of the 1995 state population to 5 percent of the 2025 state population. * Between 1995 and 2025, the number of non-Hispanic Whites residing in Pennsylvania is projected to decrease by 293 thousand, compared to a gain of 314 thousand for non- Hispanic African Americans, a gain of 8 thousand for non- Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, a gain of 224 thousand for the non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and a gain of 359 thousand for persons of Hispanic origin. (more) -5- * The numeric change in Pennsylvania's non-Hispanic White population from 1995 to 2025 ranks as the 49th largest gain among the 50 states and District of Columbia. In the same period, the non-Hispanic African American population change ranks as the 13th largest gain, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population change ranks as the 23rd largest gain. The non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population change ranks as the 11th largest gain, while the Hispanic population change ranks as the 13th largest gain. * During the 30 year period, Pennsylvania's non- Hispanic White population shrank by a rate of 2.8 percent. The non-Hispanic African American population grew by 27.7 percent, the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population grew by 58.5 percent, the non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population grew by 130.5 percent, and the Hispanic population grew by 128 percent. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the rate of growth for non-Hispanic Whites ranks 46th largest. The non-Hispanic African American growth rate ranks 39th largest, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut growth rate ranks 15th largest. The non- Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander growth rate ranks 22nd largest, while the Hispanic growth rate ranks 30th largest. (more) -6- * The number and proportion of Pennsylvania's voting age population that is non-Hispanic White is projected to be 8.1 million or 87.3 percent in 2000. Comparable figures for the other race and ethnic groups are 808 thousand and 8.7 percent for non-Hispanic African Americans, 12 thousand and 0.1 percent for non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, 147 thousand and 1.6 percent for non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and 214 thousand and 2.3 percent for persons of Hispanic origin. Source: Figures are from Series A (the Preferred Series) as reported in Campbell, Paul R., 1996, "Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025," Report PPL-47, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division. Most of these data are available in files found on the Population Projections section of the World Wide Web's Census Bureau Home Page (http://www.census.gov).