STATE POPULATION RANKINGS SUMMARY SOURCE OF DATA: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Population Paper Listing #47, Population Electronic Product #45. TENNESSEE'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 1995 TO 2025 OVERVIEW * Tennessee had a population of 5.3 million people in 1995. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state ranked as the 17th most populous. By 2000, it is projected to be the 16th most populous with 5.7 million people. By 2025, it is projected to be the 15th most populous with 6.7 million people. * Over the three decades, Tennessee's total population is expected to increase 1.4 million people. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state's net gain ranks as the 13th largest. Its rate of population change, at 26.8 percent, ranks as the 19th largest. From 1995 to 2000, the state would have a net increase of 401 thousand people, which would rank as the 9th largest net gain in the nation. * 2 percent of the nation's population resided in Tennessee in 1995 (ranked 17th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia), compared with 2.1 percent in 2000 (ranked 16th) and 2 percent in 2025 (ranked 15th). * Tennessee is expected to gain 97 thousand people through international migration between 1995 and 2025, placing it 29th largest among the net international migration gains among the 50 states and District of Columbia. (more) -2- * Tennessee is projected to rank 6th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia in the number of persons gained through net internal migration between 1995 and 2025, gaining 845 thousand persons. * During the 1995 to 2025 period, Tennessee could have 2.2 million births and 1.9 million deaths. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state could rank 19th largest in births and 13th largest in deaths. It could rank 13th largest in terms of its natural increase (birth minus deaths). AGE GROUPS * The number and proportion of Tennessee's population that is aged 18 and over is expected to increase from 3.9 million or 75.1 percent in 1995 to 4.3 million or 75.7 percent in 2000. This population is expected to increase to 5.2 million or 78.7 percent in 2025. * All states and the District of Columbia are projected to show a decline in the proportion of youth (under 20 years old) in their populations. The percentage of Tennessee's population classified as youth is projected to decrease from 27.7 percent in 1995 to 23.8 percent in 2025. Its rank among the 50 states and District of Columbia is expected to be the 37th largest proportion of youth in 1995 and the 43rd largest proportion of youth in 2025. (more) -3- * As the Baby Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) reaches retirement age, the growth of the elderly population (65 and over) is expected to accelerate rapidly. The size of the elderly population is projected to increase in all states and the District of Columbia over the 30 year period. The proportion of Tennessee's population classified as elderly is expected to increase from 12.5 percent in 1995 to 20.3 percent in 2025. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state is projected to have the 30th highest proportion of elderly in 1995 and the 22nd highest proportion of elderly in 2025. * Tennessee's dependency ratio, the number of youth (under age 20) and elderly (ages 65 and over) there would be for every 100 people of working ages (20 to 64 years of age), could rise from 67.2 in 1995 to 79 in 2025. The 1995 and 2025 ratios rank the state as the 39th largest and 40th largest, respectively, among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (more) -4- RACE AND ETHNIC GROUPS * By 2025, non-Hispanic Whites would comprise 78.6 percent of Tennessee's population, down from 82 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic African Americans would comprise 18.2 percent of the state population in 2025, up from 16.2 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut would comprise 0.2 percent of the 1995 state population and 0.2 percent of the 2025 state population. Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders would increase from 0.8 percent of the 1995 state population to 1.4 percent of the 2025 state population. Persons of Hispanic origin, who may be of any race, is projected to increase from 0.9 percent of the 1995 state population to 1.5 percent of the 2025 state population. * Between 1995 and 2025, the number of non-Hispanic Whites residing in Tennessee is projected to increase by 932 thousand, compared to a gain of 366 thousand for non- Hispanic African Americans, a gain of 5 thousand for non- Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, a gain of 48 thousand for the non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and a gain of 57 thousand for persons of Hispanic origin. (more) -5- * The numeric change in Tennessee's non-Hispanic White population from 1995 to 2025 ranks as the 6th largest gain among the 50 states and District of Columbia. In the same period, the non-Hispanic African American population change ranks as the 12th largest gain, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population change ranks as the 28th largest gain. The non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population change ranks as the 28th largest gain, while the Hispanic population change ranks as the 34th largest gain. * During the 30 year period, Tennessee's non- Hispanic White population grew by a rate of 21.6 percent. The non-Hispanic African American population grew by 43.1 percent, the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population grew by 50 percent, the non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population grew by 112.9 percent, and the Hispanic population grew by 125.1 percent. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the rate of growth for non-Hispanic Whites ranks 14th largest. The non-Hispanic African American growth rate ranks 30th largest, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut growth rate ranks 20th largest. The non- Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander growth rate ranks 36th largest, while the Hispanic growth rate ranks 31st largest. (more) -6- * The number and proportion of Tennessee's voting age population that is non-Hispanic White is projected to be 3.6 million or 83.2 percent in 2000. Comparable figures for the other race and ethnic groups are 631 thousand and 14.7 percent for non-Hispanic African Americans, 9 thousand and 0.2 percent for non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, 39 thousand and 0.9 percent for non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and 40 thousand and 0.9 percent for persons of Hispanic origin. Source: Figures are from Series A (the Preferred Series) as reported in Campbell, Paul R., 1996, "Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025," Report PPL-47, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division. Most of these data are available in files found on the Population Projections section of the World Wide Web's Census Bureau Home Page (http://www.census.gov).