STATE POPULATION RANKINGS SUMMARY SOURCE OF DATA: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Population Paper Listing #47, Population Electronic Product #45. VERMONT'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 1995 TO 2025 OVERVIEW * Vermont had a population of 585 thousand people in 1995. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state ranked as the 49th most populous. By 2000, it is projected to be the 49th most populous with 617 thousand people. By 2025, it is projected to be the 50th most populous with 678 thousand people. * Over the three decades, Vermont's total population is expected to increase 94 thousand people. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state's net gain ranks as the 49th largest. Its rate of population change, at 16 percent, ranks as the 36th largest. From 1995 to 2000, the state would have a net increase of 32 thousand people, which would rank as the 44th largest net gain in the nation. * 0.2 percent of the nation's population resided in Vermont in 1995 (ranked 49th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia), compared with 0.2 percent in 2000 (ranked 49th) and 0.2 percent in 2025 (ranked 50th). * Vermont is expected to gain 7 thousand people through international migration between 1995 and 2025, placing it 49th largest among the net international migration gains among the 50 states and District of Columbia. (more) -2- * Vermont is projected to rank 29th largest among the 50 states and District of Columbia in the number of persons gained through net internal migration between 1995 and 2025, gaining 26 thousand persons. * During the 1995 to 2025 period, Vermont could have 221 thousand births and 180 thousand deaths. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state could rank 51st largest in births and 49th largest in deaths. It could rank 49th largest in terms of its natural increase (birth minus deaths). AGE GROUPS * The number and proportion of Vermont's population that is aged 18 and over is expected to increase from 438 thousand or 74.9 percent in 1995 to 465 thousand or 75.4 percent in 2000. This population is expected to increase to 533 thousand or 78.6 percent in 2025. * All states and the District of Columbia are projected to show a decline in the proportion of youth (under 20 years old) in their populations. The percentage of Vermont's population classified as youth is projected to decrease from 27.7 percent in 1995 to 23.9 percent in 2025. Its rank among the 50 states and District of Columbia is expected to be the 36th largest proportion of youth in 1995 and the 42nd largest proportion of youth in 2025. (more) -3- * As the Baby Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) reaches retirement age, the growth of the elderly population (65 and over) is expected to accelerate rapidly. The size of the elderly population is projected to increase in all states and the District of Columbia over the 30 year period. The proportion of Vermont's population classified as elderly is expected to increase from 12 percent in 1995 to 20.3 percent in 2025. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the state is projected to have the 35th highest proportion of elderly in 1995 and the 23rd highest proportion of elderly in 2025. * Vermont's dependency ratio, the number of youth (under age 20) and elderly (ages 65 and over) there would be for every 100 people of working ages (20 to 64 years of age), could rise from 65.9 in 1995 to 79.3 in 2025. The 1995 and 2025 ratios rank the state as the 45th largest and 38th largest, respectively, among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (more) -4- RACE AND ETHNIC GROUPS * By 2025, non-Hispanic Whites would comprise 95.6 percent of Vermont's population, down from 97.9 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic African Americans would comprise 0.6 percent of the state population in 2025, up from 0.4 percent in 1995. Non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut would comprise 0.3 percent of the 1995 state population and 0.4 percent of the 2025 state population. Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders would increase from 0.7 percent of the 1995 state population to 1.6 percent of the 2025 state population. Persons of Hispanic origin, who may be of any race, is projected to increase from 0.7 percent of the 1995 state population to 1.8 percent of the 2025 state population. * Between 1995 and 2025, the number of non-Hispanic Whites residing in Vermont is projected to increase by 76 thousand, compared to a gain of 2 thousand for non- Hispanic African Americans, a gain of 1 thousand for non- Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, a gain of 6 thousand for the non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and a gain of 8 thousand for persons of Hispanic origin. (more) -5- * The numeric change in Vermont's non-Hispanic White population from 1995 to 2025 ranks as the 33rd largest gain among the 50 states and District of Columbia. In the same period, the non-Hispanic African American population change ranks as the 49th largest gain, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population change ranks as the 45th largest gain. The non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population change ranks as the 49th largest gain, while the Hispanic population change ranks as the 51st largest gain. * During the 30 year period, Vermont's non- Hispanic White population grew by a rate of 13.3 percent. The non-Hispanic African American population grew by 77.7 percent, the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population grew by 54.6 percent, the non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population grew by 145.9 percent, and the Hispanic population grew by 194.1 percent. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, the rate of growth for non-Hispanic Whites ranks 22nd largest. The non-Hispanic African American growth rate ranks 6th largest, while the non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut growth rate ranks 18th largest. The non- Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander growth rate ranks 14th largest, while the Hispanic growth rate ranks 2nd largest. (more) -6- * The number and proportion of Vermont's voting age population that is non-Hispanic White is projected to be 454 thousand or 97.6 percent in 2000. Comparable figures for the other race and ethnic groups are 2 thousand and 0.4 percent for non-Hispanic African Americans, 1 thousand and 0.3 percent for non-Hispanic American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleut, 4 thousand and 0.8 percent for non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders, and 4 thousand and 0.9 percent for persons of Hispanic origin. Source: Figures are from Series A (the Preferred Series) as reported in Campbell, Paul R., 1996, "Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025," Report PPL-47, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division. Most of these data are available in files found on the Population Projections section of the World Wide Web's Census Bureau Home Page (http://www.census.gov).