U.S. Census Bureau

Population Estimates Methods Conference - June 8, 1999
Summary of Papers and Presentations

Title Author(s) Geography Data Required Method

Session I. Part A. International Perspectives on Population Estimates

1. Post 2000 Census in France Michel Isnard
Jean Dumais
Municipality Surveys, censuses, and administrative records (mainly occupancy tax and social security), building register Continuous measurement of estimates
2. Population Estimates for Small Areas in the UK: Performance and Promise Stephen Simpson 50,000-500,000 population Births, deaths,medical register as proxy for migration, administrative records (for student and armed forces population) Cohort components, student and armed forces estimated with administrative records
1,000-3,000 population As above, plus housing change, electoral change, local censuses Various methods by local governments, no national coverage
Postcode (15 households each) As above plus national register of addresses (addresspoint) Data mining and building
3. Estimating a Population Total Using a Ranked Set Sample Arun K. Sinha
Ravi R. Sinha
Urban Places Selected population parameters Ranked set sampling
4. Future Population Estimates in Destable Populations

Subrata Lahiri Applicable on any level Age-specific growth rates Ten-year life table survival ratios

Session I. Part B. The Construction of Building Block Estimates

5. Population and Housing Estimates for Census Blocks: The San Diego Experience Jeff Tayman Census block Utility hook-ups, assessors parcel file Housing unit
6. Use of Property Tax Records and Household Composition Matrices to Improve the Household Units Method for Small Area Population Estimates Warren Brown Census block group Property tax records, housing units, point data, post-censal persons per household, age of person in household, and age of householder Household unit
7. Design Alternatives for Building Block Estimates Ron Prevost Tract,
Census block
IRS tax returns, HCFA Medicare enrollees, SSA Numident, HUD Tract Rental Assistance Certification System, Indian Health Services, and Selective Service files Database mining and building

Session II. Subnational Estimates for the United States

1. Spatially Arrayed Growth Forces and Small Area Population Estimates Methodology Roger B. Hammer
Paul R. Voss
Robin M. Blakely
Alice E. Magen
Daniel Veroff
Minor civil division, census tract, block group Point and line, total population Spatially arrayed growth forces and small area population estimates
2. Development of a National Accounting of Address and Housing Inventory: A Baseline Information for Post-censal Population Estimates Ching-Li Wang Housing unit, Census Bureau estimates geography (state, county, MCD place) Building and demolition permits and conversions by address, updates on vacancy, pph, units in structure (single/multiple) from ACS, housing unit, point data from TIGER Data mining and building
3. A Discussion and Examination of Techniques to Estimate Total Population and Population by Age for 400 Jurisdictions in Florida William O'Dell
Marc Smith
June Nogle
Subcounty area Households by tenure, size, and income; Age-specific headship rates, household population by age and income, housing prices and rents, place and county population counts, estimates and projections by age groups Affordable housing needs assessment
4. Using the Master Address File (MAF) to Estimate Population for Small Areas Patty Becker Subcounty Area MAF, MAF improvement operations, variables in MAF MAF analysis
5. A Local Alternative to National Demographic Data Vendor Population and Household Estimates - Applying a Modified Housing Unit Approach to Individual Households John McHenry Sub-Public Use Microdata Area (Sub-PUMA) Tax assesors and utility connection database, housing unit type, number of bedrooms Modified housing unit
6. Applying Data from the American Community Survey (ACS) and Master Address File (MAF) to the Intercensal Population Estimates Program Gregg J. Diffendal
Stella U. Ogunwole
Amy Symens Smith
Country ACS/MAF, and age-sex-race-ethnicity estimates Cohort component
Subcounty areas Updated housing units, households, pph, vacancy from ACS/MAF Housing unit, sampling theory

Session III. FSCPE Methods - The State Perspective

1. Domestic Migration Estimation in Sub-County Areas Zongli Tang Subcounty Migration based on IRS tax returns, 5 year migration from 1990 census, school enrollment (elementary, high school, college), Medicaire enrollees Census administration
2. Colorado Methods of Population Estimates Richard Lin
presented by:
Jim Westkott
State Births, deaths, net migration Component method
County Births, deaths, school enrollment, residuals, group quarters, net migration, employment statistics (ES202), annual change in U.S. Census Bureau estimates, local review challenges to estimates Regression residual, component method, ratio
Subcounty Building permits, group quarters, CPS for change in pph and vancancy rate Housing unit
CTF special district (park and recreation disctrict) Building permits, group quarters, CPS for change in pph and vancancy rate Housing unit
3. Review of Administration Records and Ratio-Correlation Methods for Producing Post-2000 County Population Estimates in Illinois Mohammed Shahidullah
Mark Flotow
County Births, deaths, immigration from abroad, nongroup quarters net migration, institutional and military barracks populations, Medicare enrollees Administrative Records (ADREC)
County Births, school enrollment, automobile registration, federal income tax exemptions Ratio- correlation regression model
4. Testing Population Estimation Models in Virginia Donna Tolson County, independent city State tax returns and exemptions, births, deaths, school enrollment, driver's licenses, housing stock (including mobile/manufactured homes, building and demolition permits), Medicare, group quarters Component Method II, Housing Unit, Census Ratio, and Ratio-Correlation
5. Using Water Demand to Determine Population Estimates and Projections for Kansas Darrell Eklund
Tina Rajala
Ann Durkes
County, city, rural water district Census counts from 1980 and 1990, 1992 and 1994 Census Bureau population estimates, residential water connections, interviews with local officials, information from Kansas public water suppliers about changes in water use and demand for water in local communities and rural areas Linear Regression
6. Overview of California's County Population Estimating Methods Melanie Martindale County Driver license address changes, tax return data, Medicare enrollment, and immigration Evaluation of Driver's License Address Change (DLAC)

Session IV. Methods Used in the Evaluation of Estimates

1. The Measurement of Migration Coverage Bias J. Gregory Willaims State, county IRS Migration data, Alaska Permanent Fund Mathematical Evaluation
2. Assessment of IRS Tax Returns Migration Coverage in New Mexico Adelamar Alcantara County Building permits, manufactured and mobile homes, occupancy by type of structure Mathematical Evaluation
3. Evaluation of Texas Population and Estimates and Projections Program's Population Estimates and Projections for 1990 Nazrul Hoque
Steve Murdock
County Births, deaths, elementary school enrollment, vehicle registration, voter registration Mathematical Evaluation of Ratio-Correlation Regression
County Births, deaths, elementary school enrollment Mathematical Evaluation of Component Method II
Subcounty Housing stock, building and demolition permits Mathematical Evaluation of Housing Unit Method
4. An Evaluation of the Accuracy of U.S. Bureau of the Census County Population Estimates Dean Judson
Carole Popoff
Michael Batutis
County Administrative records, economic and demographic data Mathematical Evaulation
5. Evaluating the Housing Unit Method: A Case Study of 1990 Population Estimates in Florida Stanley Smith
Scott Cody
County and subcounty area Building permits, electricity connections Housing units

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division,
Population Estimates Branch

Maintained By: Melissa Therrien (Population Division)
Last Revised: October 31, 2011 at 10:02:46 PM