Appendix A Source: U.S. Census Bureau Internet Release date: January 5, 2001 Probability of Voting Among All Citizens, 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT98 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 84076 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 183450.54591 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 39512 83097.53 2 0 44564 100353.02 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 252692.99 206105.68 . SC 252702.33 206395.20 . -2 LOG L 252690.99 206043.68 46647.313 with 30 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 39760.817 with 30 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among All Citizens, 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.2959 0.0239 9203.0426 0.0001 . . BLACK 1 0.4088 0.0178 529.5609 0.0001 0.107326 1.505 MALE 1 -0.0655 0.0109 36.0934 0.0001 -0.026665 0.937 EDUC1 1 -1.6588 0.0205 6537.2835 0.0001 -0.487822 0.190 EDUC2 1 -1.0060 0.0153 4330.3748 0.0001 -0.387710 0.366 EDUC3 1 -0.4161 0.0154 727.9448 0.0001 -0.151433 0.660 AGE1 1 -1.9632 0.0291 4549.8240 0.0001 -0.529383 0.140 AGE2 1 -1.2359 0.0208 3526.1172 0.0001 -0.494470 0.291 AGE3 1 -0.6280 0.0186 1145.9425 0.0001 -0.233658 0.534 ELECT1 1 -0.5235 0.0202 674.2018 0.0001 -0.116037 0.592 ELECT2 1 -0.0390 0.0161 5.8708 0.0154 -0.010692 0.962 INCOME1 1 -0.3788 0.0402 88.6536 0.0001 -0.048619 0.685 INCOME2 1 -0.3585 0.0290 153.1167 0.0001 -0.063812 0.699 INCOME3 1 -0.2970 0.0250 140.8136 0.0001 -0.059334 0.743 INCOME4 1 -0.2420 0.0196 152.9695 0.0001 -0.062713 0.785 INCOME5 1 -0.1456 0.0180 65.6566 0.0001 -0.039401 0.864 INCOME6 1 -0.1050 0.0162 42.1493 0.0001 -0.030781 0.900 INCOME9 1 -0.2195 0.0207 112.7567 0.0001 -0.054749 0.803 HOUSE1 1 -3.8064 0.0549 4803.6254 0.0001 -0.742023 0.022 HOUSE2 1 -0.8952 0.0186 2308.8897 0.0001 -0.247091 0.409 HOUSE3 1 -0.5888 0.0167 1248.8088 0.0001 -0.165232 0.555 HOUSE4 1 -0.2242 0.0161 193.0649 0.0001 -0.061198 0.799 TENURE1 1 -0.3432 0.0475 52.2931 0.0001 -0.032254 0.710 TENURE2 1 -0.3518 0.0149 557.1330 0.0001 -0.124773 0.703 MARITAL1 1 -0.3358 0.0176 362.5495 0.0001 -0.115257 0.715 MARITAL2 1 -0.4169 0.0386 116.6733 0.0001 -0.050242 0.659 MARITAL3 1 -0.4172 0.0189 485.5164 0.0001 -0.102217 0.659 MARITAL4 1 -0.5073 0.0237 458.5467 0.0001 -0.105548 0.602 MSASTAT1 1 0.0188 0.0163 1.3331 0.2483 0.006162 1.019 MSASTAT2 1 -0.1012 0.0132 58.9270 0.0001 -0.041212 0.904 KID 1 -0.1600 0.0131 149.4193 0.0001 -0.063369 0.852 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 77.4% Somers' D = 0.550 Discordant = 22.4% Gamma = 0.551 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.274 (1760812768 pairs) c = 0.775 Probability of Voting Among Black Non Hispanic Citizens, 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT98 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 7993 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 21612.917272 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 3494 9044.145 2 0 4499 12568.772 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 29386.495 24554.880 . SC 29393.482 24764.470 . -2 LOG L 29384.495 24494.880 4889.615 with 29 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 4254.524 with 29 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among Black Non Hispanic Citizens, 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.0337 0.0766 704.5654 0.0001 . . MALE 1 -0.2369 0.0323 53.7154 0.0001 -0.106688 0.789 EDUC1 1 -1.2580 0.0609 426.5588 0.0001 -0.477925 0.284 EDUC2 1 -0.8833 0.0519 290.1743 0.0001 -0.383604 0.413 EDUC3 1 -0.3721 0.0521 50.9565 0.0001 -0.151060 0.689 AGE1 1 -1.6736 0.0817 419.6110 0.0001 -0.550621 0.188 AGE2 1 -0.6947 0.0644 116.2253 0.0001 -0.313860 0.499 AGE3 1 -0.1979 0.0587 11.3581 0.0008 -0.079159 0.820 ELECT1 1 -0.4967 0.0505 96.9086 0.0001 -0.145379 0.609 ELECT2 1 -0.0181 0.0452 0.1598 0.6894 -0.005773 0.982 INCOME1 1 -0.2802 0.0798 12.3362 0.0004 -0.062381 0.756 INCOME2 1 -0.1922 0.0651 8.7273 0.0031 -0.052907 0.825 INCOME3 1 -0.3817 0.0655 33.9901 0.0001 -0.101242 0.683 INCOME4 1 -0.3067 0.0550 31.0838 0.0001 -0.098151 0.736 INCOME5 1 -0.0350 0.0537 0.4248 0.5146 -0.010776 0.966 INCOME6 1 -0.1174 0.0531 4.8782 0.0272 -0.035772 0.889 INCOME9 1 -0.2627 0.0632 17.2645 0.0001 -0.073640 0.769 HOUSE1 1 -2.9454 0.1046 792.1910 0.0001 -0.719450 0.053 HOUSE2 1 -0.8621 0.0508 287.7876 0.0001 -0.286536 0.422 HOUSE3 1 -0.6847 0.0471 211.4991 0.0001 -0.228182 0.504 HOUSE4 1 -0.1803 0.0478 14.2486 0.0002 -0.055030 0.835 TENURE1 1 -0.7394 0.1482 24.8824 0.0001 -0.076137 0.477 TENURE2 1 -0.2261 0.0374 36.6052 0.0001 -0.101759 0.798 MARITAL1 1 -0.2313 0.0438 27.9311 0.0001 -0.101888 0.794 MARITAL2 1 -0.2447 0.0729 11.2558 0.0008 -0.050005 0.783 MARITAL3 1 -0.1063 0.0515 4.2628 0.0390 -0.031690 0.899 MARITAL4 1 -0.1425 0.0683 4.3610 0.0368 -0.033867 0.867 MSASTAT1 1 -0.1257 0.0481 6.8390 0.0089 -0.040075 0.882 MSASTAT2 1 0.0321 0.0356 0.8108 0.3679 0.013574 1.033 KID 1 -0.2069 0.0348 35.3770 0.0001 -0.093600 0.813 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 76.3% Somers' D = 0.528 Discordant = 23.5% Gamma = 0.529 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.260 (15719506 pairs) c = 0.764 Probability of Voting Among White Non Hispanic Citizens, 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT98 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 68228 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 143650.82817 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 33281 68068.430 2 0 34947 75582.398 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 198751.12 160672.77 . SC 198760.25 160946.69 . -2 LOG L 198749.12 160612.77 38136.344 with 29 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 32307.026 with 29 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among White Non Hispanic Citizens, 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.4621 0.0271 8241.7948 0.0001 . . MALE 1 -0.0328 0.0124 7.0108 0.0081 -0.013092 0.968 EDUC1 1 -1.7983 0.0242 5542.4387 0.0001 -0.482416 0.166 EDUC2 1 -1.0574 0.0170 3853.4732 0.0001 -0.400862 0.347 EDUC3 1 -0.4491 0.0172 683.1587 0.0001 -0.160953 0.638 AGE1 1 -1.9756 0.0337 3445.5667 0.0001 -0.502227 0.139 AGE2 1 -1.2953 0.0235 3031.7903 0.0001 -0.506361 0.274 AGE3 1 -0.6754 0.0208 1052.8209 0.0001 -0.249079 0.509 ELECT1 1 -0.5622 0.0228 605.9164 0.0001 -0.121652 0.570 ELECT2 1 -0.0450 0.0178 6.4012 0.0114 -0.012436 0.956 INCOME1 1 -0.5015 0.0537 87.1199 0.0001 -0.052710 0.606 INCOME2 1 -0.4740 0.0360 173.0349 0.0001 -0.074690 0.623 INCOME3 1 -0.2655 0.0294 81.5898 0.0001 -0.049400 0.767 INCOME4 1 -0.2294 0.0226 103.0487 0.0001 -0.056687 0.795 INCOME5 1 -0.1453 0.0204 50.7217 0.0001 -0.038257 0.865 INCOME6 1 -0.0877 0.0180 23.6546 0.0001 -0.025530 0.916 INCOME9 1 -0.2115 0.0231 83.5549 0.0001 -0.052339 0.809 HOUSE1 1 -4.1602 0.0712 3409.8974 0.0001 -0.778571 0.016 HOUSE2 1 -0.9144 0.0214 1824.8288 0.0001 -0.241277 0.401 HOUSE3 1 -0.5874 0.0190 958.7323 0.0001 -0.159515 0.556 HOUSE4 1 -0.2451 0.0183 179.2761 0.0001 -0.065360 0.783 TENURE1 1 -0.2186 0.0536 16.6641 0.0001 -0.020003 0.804 TENURE2 1 -0.4056 0.0177 526.1836 0.0001 -0.132726 0.667 MARITAL1 1 -0.3689 0.0209 311.2066 0.0001 -0.118340 0.692 MARITAL2 1 -0.5172 0.0516 100.4296 0.0001 -0.052394 0.596 MARITAL3 1 -0.4842 0.0217 498.4896 0.0001 -0.115586 0.616 MARITAL4 1 -0.5354 0.0267 402.2511 0.0001 -0.111171 0.585 MSASTAT1 1 -0.0115 0.0188 0.3731 0.5413 -0.003832 0.989 MSASTAT2 1 -0.1566 0.0157 100.0930 0.0001 -0.062324 0.855 KID 1 -0.1490 0.0153 94.7022 0.0001 -0.057130 0.862 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 77.7% Somers' D = 0.556 Discordant = 22.1% Gamma = 0.557 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.278 (1163071107 pairs) c = 0.778 Probability of Voting Among All Citizens, 1994 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT94 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 95357 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 177259.86798 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 47067 84943.516 2 0 48290 92316.352 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 245429.61 200666.79 . SC 245439.07 200960.22 . -2 LOG L 245427.61 200604.79 44822.815 with 30 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 38813.975 with 30 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among All Citizens, 1994 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.5856 0.0249 10781.4753 0.0001 . . BLACK 1 0.1577 0.0180 77.2094 0.0001 0.038046 1.171 MALE 1 -0.0629 0.0111 32.2696 0.0001 -0.023625 0.939 EDUC1 1 -1.8607 0.0210 7823.0473 0.0001 -0.522652 0.156 EDUC2 1 -1.0781 0.0161 4483.4101 0.0001 -0.385992 0.340 EDUC3 1 -0.5233 0.0163 1031.0830 0.0001 -0.175378 0.593 AGE1 1 -1.8728 0.0278 4523.5185 0.0001 -0.471261 0.154 AGE2 1 -1.2095 0.0202 3573.3975 0.0001 -0.449960 0.298 AGE3 1 -0.6003 0.0190 996.0668 0.0001 -0.200867 0.549 ELECT1 1 -0.5323 0.0191 773.4904 0.0001 -0.115422 0.587 ELECT2 1 -0.0995 0.0165 36.4279 0.0001 -0.024719 0.905 INCOME1 1 -0.6188 0.0337 337.8882 0.0001 -0.091098 0.539 INCOME2 1 -0.5300 0.0262 409.2465 0.0001 -0.103220 0.589 INCOME3 1 -0.3670 0.0231 252.1859 0.0001 -0.077521 0.693 INCOME4 1 -0.2734 0.0189 210.1022 0.0001 -0.071517 0.761 INCOME5 1 -0.2162 0.0179 145.8491 0.0001 -0.057088 0.806 INCOME6 1 -0.1319 0.0168 61.7677 0.0001 -0.036491 0.876 INCOME9 1 -0.3218 0.0242 176.1443 0.0001 -0.062944 0.725 HOUSE1 1 -3.8946 0.0693 3155.8653 0.0001 -0.575819 0.020 HOUSE2 1 -0.9208 0.0184 2495.1562 0.0001 -0.240447 0.398 HOUSE3 1 -0.6157 0.0169 1324.0169 0.0001 -0.160368 0.540 HOUSE4 1 -0.1862 0.0164 129.5044 0.0001 -0.047179 0.830 TENURE1 1 -0.2893 0.0418 47.9544 0.0001 -0.028872 0.749 TENURE2 1 -0.3408 0.0145 551.1350 0.0001 -0.114031 0.711 MARITAL1 1 -0.3478 0.0173 405.2813 0.0001 -0.108658 0.706 MARITAL2 1 -0.3802 0.0379 100.7232 0.0001 -0.043565 0.684 MARITAL3 1 -0.4361 0.0194 506.6882 0.0001 -0.097144 0.647 MARITAL4 1 -0.4226 0.0239 313.8573 0.0001 -0.082287 0.655 MSASTAT1 1 0.0618 0.0147 17.7184 0.0001 0.019600 1.064 MSASTAT2 1 -0.0915 0.0127 52.0060 0.0001 -0.033388 0.913 KID 1 -0.1082 0.0119 82.7214 0.0001 -0.040568 0.897 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 77.1% Somers' D = 0.545 Discordant = 22.6% Gamma = 0.546 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.272 (2272865430 pairs) c = 0.772 Probability of Voting Among Black Non Hispanic Citizens, 1994 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT94 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 9516 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 20661.64187 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 3939 8019.710 2 0 5577 12641.932 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 27602.277 23565.901 . SC 27609.437 23780.723 . -2 LOG L 27600.277 23505.901 4094.375 with 29 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 3624.314 with 29 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among Black Non Hispanic Citizens, 1994 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.1257 0.0836 646.4372 0.0001 . . MALE 1 -0.1219 0.0330 13.6412 0.0002 -0.049216 0.885 EDUC1 1 -1.6093 0.0640 631.4781 0.0001 -0.574397 0.200 EDUC2 1 -0.9235 0.0553 278.8107 0.0001 -0.358509 0.397 EDUC3 1 -0.4985 0.0552 81.6341 0.0001 -0.179195 0.607 AGE1 1 -1.7198 0.0819 440.5649 0.0001 -0.520599 0.179 AGE2 1 -0.9838 0.0649 229.8116 0.0001 -0.399069 0.374 AGE3 1 -0.2326 0.0597 15.1699 0.0001 -0.080717 0.792 ELECT1 1 -0.5390 0.0478 127.0459 0.0001 -0.153354 0.583 ELECT2 1 -0.2553 0.0490 27.1017 0.0001 -0.069525 0.775 INCOME1 1 -0.4287 0.0731 34.4218 0.0001 -0.109281 0.651 INCOME2 1 -0.2132 0.0676 9.9568 0.0016 -0.058431 0.808 INCOME3 1 -0.0484 0.0649 0.5546 0.4564 -0.013061 0.953 INCOME4 1 -0.1223 0.0594 4.2457 0.0393 -0.036191 0.885 INCOME5 1 -0.1322 0.0596 4.9089 0.0267 -0.036684 0.876 INCOME6 1 -0.0198 0.0599 0.1099 0.7402 -0.005244 0.980 INCOME9 1 -0.0386 0.0776 0.2472 0.6190 -0.008090 0.962 HOUSE1 1 -3.0420 0.1384 483.1018 0.0001 -0.562140 0.048 HOUSE2 1 -0.7846 0.0525 223.6281 0.0001 -0.231095 0.456 HOUSE3 1 -0.5117 0.0481 113.3351 0.0001 -0.154086 0.599 HOUSE4 1 -0.2008 0.0492 16.6579 0.0001 -0.054268 0.818 TENURE1 1 -0.3751 0.1199 9.7810 0.0018 -0.043858 0.687 TENURE2 1 -0.1693 0.0378 20.0502 0.0001 -0.068543 0.844 MARITAL1 1 -0.2649 0.0444 35.6606 0.0001 -0.104269 0.767 MARITAL2 1 -0.1932 0.0703 7.5415 0.0060 -0.037631 0.824 MARITAL3 1 -0.2392 0.0544 19.3256 0.0001 -0.061190 0.787 MARITAL4 1 -0.1711 0.0670 6.5253 0.0106 -0.038326 0.843 MSASTAT1 1 -0.0113 0.0447 0.0637 0.8008 -0.003539 0.989 MSASTAT2 1 -0.1734 0.0407 18.1825 0.0001 -0.057688 0.841 KID 1 -0.1297 0.0344 14.2526 0.0002 -0.051953 0.878 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 75.2% Somers' D = 0.506 Discordant = 24.6% Gamma = 0.507 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.245 (21967803 pairs) c = 0.753 Probability of Voting Among White Non Hispanic Citizens, 1994 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT94 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 78447 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 142357.2934 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 40615 72249.168 2 0 37832 70108.125 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 197318.91 160502.00 . SC 197328.18 160780.11 . -2 LOG L 197316.91 160442.00 36874.910 with 29 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 31946.820 with 29 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among White Non Hispanic Citizens, 1994 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.7051 0.0275 9659.3832 0.0001 . . MALE 1 -0.0486 0.0124 15.3685 0.0001 -0.018032 0.953 EDUC1 1 -1.9325 0.0240 6500.1410 0.0001 -0.503220 0.145 EDUC2 1 -1.1381 0.0177 4111.3406 0.0001 -0.403362 0.320 EDUC3 1 -0.5487 0.0180 930.1970 0.0001 -0.182342 0.578 AGE1 1 -1.8871 0.0315 3585.9071 0.0001 -0.452317 0.152 AGE2 1 -1.2187 0.0224 2967.1551 0.0001 -0.446397 0.296 AGE3 1 -0.6226 0.0211 873.8441 0.0001 -0.207470 0.537 ELECT1 1 -0.5570 0.0215 671.9690 0.0001 -0.117719 0.573 ELECT2 1 -0.1037 0.0180 33.2780 0.0001 -0.026128 0.902 INCOME1 1 -0.6530 0.0427 233.5157 0.0001 -0.079719 0.520 INCOME2 1 -0.5848 0.0311 353.7531 0.0001 -0.102747 0.557 INCOME3 1 -0.3943 0.0264 222.7255 0.0001 -0.078988 0.674 INCOME4 1 -0.2649 0.0211 157.5386 0.0001 -0.067602 0.767 INCOME5 1 -0.2234 0.0198 127.6070 0.0001 -0.058443 0.800 INCOME6 1 -0.1454 0.0183 62.9756 0.0001 -0.040512 0.865 INCOME9 1 -0.3638 0.0266 187.6666 0.0001 -0.071332 0.695 HOUSE1 1 -4.1108 0.0838 2407.8962 0.0001 -0.580223 0.016 HOUSE2 1 -0.9551 0.0208 2100.9994 0.0001 -0.241397 0.385 HOUSE3 1 -0.6272 0.0190 1085.1646 0.0001 -0.158569 0.534 HOUSE4 1 -0.1824 0.0183 99.1373 0.0001 -0.045532 0.833 TENURE1 1 -0.3195 0.0467 46.8213 0.0001 -0.031267 0.727 TENURE2 1 -0.3819 0.0168 518.6996 0.0001 -0.119814 0.683 MARITAL1 1 -0.3861 0.0200 371.9965 0.0001 -0.113560 0.680 MARITAL2 1 -0.5119 0.0496 106.4457 0.0001 -0.049482 0.599 MARITAL3 1 -0.4996 0.0218 524.5286 0.0001 -0.109122 0.607 MARITAL4 1 -0.4594 0.0266 298.2144 0.0001 -0.088988 0.632 MSASTAT1 1 0.0534 0.0164 10.6353 0.0011 0.017134 1.055 MSASTAT2 1 -0.0793 0.0142 31.0698 0.0001 -0.028922 0.924 KID 1 -0.1024 0.0134 58.6059 0.0001 -0.037978 0.903 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 77.4% Somers' D = 0.550 Discordant = 22.4% Gamma = 0.551 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.275 (1536546680 pairs) c = 0.775 Probability of Voting Among All Citizens, 1994 and 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT94 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 179433 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 360710.41389 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 86579 168041.04 2 0 92854 192669.37 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 498369.95 407037.88 . SC 498380.05 407361.00 . -2 LOG L 498367.95 406973.88 91394.072 with 31 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 78448.509 with 31 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among All Citizens, 1994 and 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.5320 0.0177 20359.8042 0.0001 . . YEAR 1 -0.1921 0.00783 602.0496 0.0001 -0.075064 0.825 BLACK 1 0.2843 0.0126 509.0828 0.0001 0.071493 1.329 MALE 1 -0.0640 0.00777 67.9496 0.0001 -0.025003 0.938 EDUC1 1 -1.7586 0.0147 14387.5564 0.0001 -0.505068 0.172 EDUC2 1 -1.0367 0.0111 8781.1078 0.0001 -0.384763 0.355 EDUC3 1 -0.4653 0.0112 1730.7820 0.0001 -0.162361 0.628 AGE1 1 -1.9199 0.0201 9155.8804 0.0001 -0.499618 0.147 AGE2 1 -1.2259 0.0145 7195.1592 0.0001 -0.472619 0.293 AGE3 1 -0.6173 0.0133 2166.4101 0.0001 -0.217801 0.539 ELECT1 1 -0.5301 0.0138 1465.6123 0.0001 -0.116176 0.589 ELECT2 1 -0.0664 0.0115 33.3252 0.0001 -0.017330 0.936 INCOME1 1 -0.5304 0.0257 426.0373 0.0001 -0.073627 0.588 INCOME2 1 -0.4553 0.0194 553.1443 0.0001 -0.085280 0.634 INCOME3 1 -0.3335 0.0169 388.6457 0.0001 -0.068746 0.716 INCOME4 1 -0.2516 0.0135 345.7439 0.0001 -0.065572 0.778 INCOME5 1 -0.1753 0.0126 192.3266 0.0001 -0.046852 0.839 INCOME6 1 -0.1117 0.0116 92.4299 0.0001 -0.031772 0.894 INCOME9 1 -0.2597 0.0157 273.0043 0.0001 -0.057852 0.771 HOUSE1 1 -3.8403 0.0430 7963.5997 0.0001 -0.659465 0.021 HOUSE2 1 -0.9062 0.0131 4790.8500 0.0001 -0.243051 0.404 HOUSE3 1 -0.6007 0.0119 2564.1062 0.0001 -0.162255 0.548 HOUSE4 1 -0.2058 0.0115 321.1899 0.0001 -0.054053 0.814 TENURE1 1 -0.3134 0.0313 100.2415 0.0001 -0.030444 0.731 TENURE2 1 -0.3453 0.0104 1105.2631 0.0001 -0.118858 0.708 MARITAL1 1 -0.3388 0.0123 757.8912 0.0001 -0.110849 0.713 MARITAL2 1 -0.4003 0.0270 219.3244 0.0001 -0.046990 0.670 MARITAL3 1 -0.4233 0.0135 979.3986 0.0001 -0.098822 0.655 MARITAL4 1 -0.4641 0.0168 762.9836 0.0001 -0.093315 0.629 MSASTAT1 1 0.0404 0.0109 13.7981 0.0002 0.013019 1.041 MSASTAT2 1 -0.0978 0.00909 115.7281 0.0001 -0.038006 0.907 KID 1 -0.1347 0.00876 236.3424 0.0001 -0.052468 0.874 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 77.3% Somers' D = 0.547 Discordant = 22.5% Gamma = 0.548 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.273 (8039206466 pairs) c = 0.774 Probability of Voting Among Black Non Hispanic Citizens, 1994 and 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT94 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 17509 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 42274.559142 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 7433 17063.855 2 0 10076 25210.704 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 57027.116 48200.226 . SC 57034.886 48441.111 . -2 LOG L 57025.116 48138.226 8886.890 with 30 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 7798.548 with 30 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among Black Non Hispanic Citizens, 1994 and 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.0391 0.0577 1247.0313 0.0001 . . YEAR 1 0.0701 0.0226 9.6146 0.0019 0.030040 1.073 MALE 1 -0.1792 0.0230 60.5015 0.0001 -0.076253 0.836 EDUC1 1 -1.4309 0.0439 1061.5289 0.0001 -0.526408 0.239 EDUC2 1 -0.9034 0.0377 573.4478 0.0001 -0.370287 0.405 EDUC3 1 -0.4365 0.0378 133.6306 0.0001 -0.166482 0.646 AGE1 1 -1.6773 0.0576 849.3253 0.0001 -0.528342 0.187 AGE2 1 -0.8320 0.0455 334.7801 0.0001 -0.355531 0.435 AGE3 1 -0.2124 0.0417 25.9452 0.0001 -0.079065 0.809 ELECT1 1 -0.5129 0.0346 220.3066 0.0001 -0.147956 0.599 ELECT2 1 -0.1294 0.0330 15.3805 0.0001 -0.038131 0.879 INCOME1 1 -0.3906 0.0529 54.4192 0.0001 -0.094338 0.677 INCOME2 1 -0.2097 0.0465 20.3503 0.0001 -0.057638 0.811 INCOME3 1 -0.1988 0.0455 19.0836 0.0001 -0.053316 0.820 INCOME4 1 -0.2164 0.0401 29.1634 0.0001 -0.066451 0.805 INCOME5 1 -0.0861 0.0397 4.7120 0.0300 -0.025129 0.918 INCOME6 1 -0.0764 0.0395 3.7366 0.0532 -0.021665 0.926 INCOME9 1 -0.1681 0.0488 11.8514 0.0006 -0.041174 0.845 HOUSE1 1 -2.9658 0.0833 1266.2235 0.0001 -0.635396 0.052 HOUSE2 1 -0.8169 0.0364 504.0284 0.0001 -0.255183 0.442 HOUSE3 1 -0.5963 0.0335 316.4015 0.0001 -0.188562 0.551 HOUSE4 1 -0.1867 0.0341 29.9428 0.0001 -0.053532 0.830 TENURE1 1 -0.5224 0.0932 31.4488 0.0001 -0.057897 0.593 TENURE2 1 -0.2037 0.0264 59.3371 0.0001 -0.086825 0.816 MARITAL1 1 -0.2433 0.0310 61.5389 0.0001 -0.101151 0.784 MARITAL2 1 -0.2140 0.0505 17.9737 0.0001 -0.042646 0.807 MARITAL3 1 -0.1623 0.0372 19.0186 0.0001 -0.044784 0.850 MARITAL4 1 -0.1558 0.0477 10.6839 0.0011 -0.035876 0.856 MSASTAT1 1 -0.0724 0.0325 4.9711 0.0258 -0.022926 0.930 MSASTAT2 1 -0.0532 0.0266 3.9947 0.0456 -0.020161 0.948 KID 1 -0.1654 0.0243 46.4045 0.0001 -0.070780 0.848 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 75.6% Somers' D = 0.514 Discordant = 24.2% Gamma = 0.515 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.251 (74894908 pairs) c = 0.757 Probability of Voting Among White Non Hispanic Citizens, 1994 and 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Data Set: WORK.LGVOT94 Response Variable: VOTE Response Levels: 2 Number of Observations: 146675 Weight Variable: WGHT Sum of Weights: 286008.12157 Link Function: Logit Response Profile Ordered Total Value VOTE Count Weight 1 1 73896 140317.60 2 0 72779 145690.52 Model Fitting Information and Testing Global Null Hypothesis BETA=0 Intercept Intercept and Criterion Only Covariates Chi-Square for Covariates AIC 396392.50 321262.69 . SC 396402.40 321569.46 . -2 LOG L 396390.50 321200.69 75189.817 with 30 DF (p=0.0001) Score . . 64353.062 with 30 DF (p=0.0001) Probability of Voting Among White Non Hispanic Citizens, 1994 and 1998 The LOGISTIC Procedure Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Parameter Standard Wald Pr > Standardized Odds Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio INTERCPT 1 2.6929 0.0199 18394.8340 0.0001 . . YEAR 1 -0.2351 0.00887 703.3578 0.0001 -0.090505 0.790 MALE 1 -0.0405 0.00875 21.3931 0.0001 -0.015572 0.960 EDUC1 1 -1.8661 0.0170 12086.1093 0.0001 -0.492921 0.155 EDUC2 1 -1.0946 0.0123 7965.1756 0.0001 -0.400750 0.335 EDUC3 1 -0.4955 0.0124 1595.6900 0.0001 -0.170815 0.609 AGE1 1 -1.9321 0.0229 7091.2605 0.0001 -0.476365 0.145 AGE2 1 -1.2584 0.0161 6076.5594 0.0001 -0.475744 0.284 AGE3 1 -0.6515 0.0148 1940.4564 0.0001 -0.228267 0.521 ELECT1 1 -0.5617 0.0156 1293.4866 0.0001 -0.120060 0.570 ELECT2 1 -0.0723 0.0126 32.7420 0.0001 -0.019063 0.930 INCOME1 1 -0.5894 0.0333 312.6856 0.0001 -0.067523 0.555 INCOME2 1 -0.5348 0.0235 519.8320 0.0001 -0.089668 0.586 INCOME3 1 -0.3353 0.0196 292.9301 0.0001 -0.065050 0.715 INCOME4 1 -0.2421 0.0154 248.1409 0.0001 -0.060935 0.785 INCOME5 1 -0.1809 0.0142 163.3867 0.0001 -0.047493 0.835 INCOME6 1 -0.1103 0.0128 74.0266 0.0001 -0.031381 0.896 INCOME9 1 -0.2752 0.0174 249.1663 0.0001 -0.061026 0.759 HOUSE1 1 -4.1378 0.0543 5815.7627 0.0001 -0.680028 0.016 HOUSE2 1 -0.9353 0.0149 3930.3191 0.0001 -0.241305 0.392 HOUSE3 1 -0.6074 0.0134 2045.5600 0.0001 -0.158969 0.545 HOUSE4 1 -0.2148 0.0129 275.4243 0.0001 -0.055330 0.807 TENURE1 1 -0.2763 0.0352 61.6921 0.0001 -0.026241 0.759 TENURE2 1 -0.3912 0.0122 1036.2520 0.0001 -0.125255 0.676 MARITAL1 1 -0.3757 0.0144 679.0283 0.0001 -0.115259 0.687 MARITAL2 1 -0.5131 0.0358 205.8581 0.0001 -0.050714 0.599 MARITAL3 1 -0.4889 0.0154 1012.9026 0.0001 -0.111515 0.613 MARITAL4 1 -0.4940 0.0188 687.5418 0.0001 -0.098945 0.610 MSASTAT1 1 0.0280 0.0123 5.1678 0.0230 0.009148 1.028 MSASTAT2 1 -0.1146 0.0105 120.2445 0.0001 -0.044074 0.892 KID 1 -0.1303 0.0100 168.9388 0.0001 -0.049788 0.878 Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses Concordant = 77.6% Somers' D = 0.553 Discordant = 22.2% Gamma = 0.554 Tied = 0.2% Tau-a = 0.277 (5378076984 pairs) c = 0.777