National Population Trends

KEVIN E. DEARDORFF
PATRICIA MONTGOMERY

The population has grown by 13 million persons since the 1990 census.

On January 1, 1995, there were 261,638,000 people in the United States. This represents an increase of 2,471,000 (1.0 percent) over the January 1, 1994, estimate, and a gain of 12,919,000 (5.2 percent) since the 1990 census. The Nation's population growth during 1994 was mostly the result of "natural increase" (3,949,000 births minus 2,294,000 deaths). The United States also experienced a net gain from migration of 816,000 (736,000 international migrants and 80,000 returning federally affiliated U.S. citizens).

Population growth is concentrated among adults in their thirties and forties, and the elderly.

The Baby Boomers (those persons born from 1946 to 1964) continue to concentrate population growth within the age groups into which they age. The Baby Boom cohort, persons 29 to 47 years old on January 1, 1995, accounted for 79,352,000 people or 30.3 percent of the total population.

The number of people in elderly age categories also continues to increase. The number of Americans 65 years old and over on January 1, 1995, was 33,361,000, an increase of 359,000 (1.1 percent) from a year ago and an increase of 2,281,000 (7.3 percent) from the 1990 census. A more pronounced percentage increase occurs to the oldest segment of the elderly population or those 85 years old and over. The number of persons in this category was 3,580,000 on January 1, 1995, an increase of 103,000 (3.0 percent) from 1 year ago and an increase of 559,000 (18.5 percent) from the 1990 census. This differential increase in the population 85 years old and over is the result of improvements in the life expectancy at advanced ages, continued high levels of births during the first decade of the century, and very high immigration from Europe during the early part of the century.

The number of births falls below the 4 million mark for the first time since 1988.

According to recent estimates, there were 3,949,000 births in 1994, a 2.2 percent decline from the previous year's total. This marks the first time since 1989 that births have not reached the 4 million mark and represents a continuation of the decline in births observed since 1990. Declining births can be the result of a decline in the number of women in childbearing ages (15 to 44 years old), a shift in the age distribution of women in the childbearing ages, or a decrease in age-specific fertility rates. Recent projections indicate neither a substantial decline in age-specific fertility rates nor a reduction in the female population 15 to 44 years old. However, a changing age structure within the female population 15 to 44 years old has led to fewer births. As a result of the aging of the Baby Boom, more women are entering the less fertile childbearing ages. For example, the number of women 30 to 44 years old on January 1, 1995, was 32,312,493, an increase of 374,000 (1.2 percent) from 1 year ago, and an increase of 2,417,000 (8.1 percent) from the 1990 census. On the other hand, the number of women 15 to 29 years old on January 1, 1995, was 27,059,000, a decrease of 196,000 (-0.7 percent) from 1 year ago, and a decrease of 1,668,000 (-5.8 percent) from the 1990 census.

The number of deaths continues to rise during the 1990's.

In 1994, there were 2,294,000 deaths -- the highest annual number of deaths ever recorded. This represents an increase of 27,000 (1.2 percent) over the total for 1993. The number of deaths can be influenced by the size of the population, the age structure of the population, and the rates of mortality by age. In the case of the United States in the early 1990's, the major factor underlying the increase in deaths has been the age structure of the population. Relatively high growth among the oldest old (persons 85 years old and over) has created a relatively larger population in age categories with greater susceptibility to death. With the oldest old population growing rapidly, the number of deaths will continue to rise annually unless a dramatic reduction in age-specific death rates occurs to this population.

Net international migration has remained high.

Net international migration was 736,000 in 1994, down 67,000 (-8.3 percent) from 1993. The annual average figure of 759,000 during the 1990's is well above the annual average of 634,000 for the previous decade. This higher average is partly a result of the provisions of the Immigration Act of 1990 which reduced the limiting effect of quotas on family reunifications. In 1994, net internation- al immigration accounted for 736,000 of the 2,471,000 (30.0 percent) total increase to the population.

Growth rates are highest for the Hispanic and for the Asian and Pacific Islander populations.

During 1994, the Hispanic population grew by 897,000 people (3.5 percent).1 At the same time, the White, non-Hispanic population added 813,000 people, an increase of 0.4 percent. This marks the first time that the yearly growth in the Hispanic population was numerically larger than the growth in the White, non-Hispanic population. During 1994, the Asian and Pacific Islander population grew by 336,000 (3.8 percent); the Black population grew by 484,000 (1.5 percent); the American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population grew by 33,000 (1.5 percent); and the White population grew by 1,618,000 (0.8 percent). The Asian and Pacific Islander population is the only population where net international migration (201,000) added more people than natural increase (134,000).

For Further Information
See: Bureau of the Census, 
PPL-21, U.S. Population Estimates, by Age,
Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1990 to 1994.
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1 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. The information on the total and Hispanic population shown in this report was collected in the 50 States and the District of Columbia, and, therefore, does not include residents of Puerto Rico.
Graph: Women, Live Birth, and Birth per 1,000 Women 15 to 44 Years Old: 1920 to 1994

Graph: Average Annual Rates of Natural Increase and Net International Migration, by Race and Hispanic Origin: July 1, 1990 to July 1, 1994