States in the South and West are expected to show big gains between 1993 and 2020.1The South should remain the most populous region, with the West moving past the Midwest into second place shortly after the turn of the century. Out of the 16 States that should gain at least a million persons, only 1 is located in the Northeast (New Jersey), and 1 in the Midwest (Illinois).
California, the most populous State during the 1993-2020 period, alone should add over 16 million persons. This would boost its share of the Nation's population from 12 to 15 percent. Texas and Florida are expected to be the next biggest gainers. In 1994, Texas replaced New York as the second most populous State. Florida should succeed New York as the third largest State after 2015.
The most rapid rates of growth during the 1993 to 2020 period should occur in Nevada (2.1 percent per year), Hawaii (2.0 percent), California (2.0 percent), and Washington (1.9 percent). The slowest growth rate over this period should belong to West Virginia (with less than 0.1 percent annually).
Trends in births, deaths, and migration vary among States.
The components of population growth, namely, births, deaths, internal migration (State-to-State moves), and international migration (immigration) affect each State differently. For example, between 1990 and 2020:
California is projected to sustain a net loss of 4 million internal migrants to other States. (New York, Illinois, and Michigan should also each lose at least 1 million.) But this huge loss would be more than compensated for by projections that show California will add 10 million international migrants (39 percent of the Nation's total) and have more than twice as many births as deaths (20 million versus 8 million).
Florida is projected to add 2 million immigrants, joining California, New York, Texas, New Jersey, and Illinois in adding at least 1 million each. Counter to California trends, Florida should see a net gain of nearly 4 million from other States; only Washington, North Carolina, and Georgia are also expected to add over a million through net internal migration. During the projection period, about as many Floridians should die as would be born (6 million each).
The fastest rate of growth should occur for Asians and Pacific Islanders and Hispanics.
Here is a look at how each race and ethnic group is expected to grow regionally and for five of their most populous States for the 1993 to 2020 period:
The White population (255 million in the Nation by the year 2020) in the South and West should account for 89 percent of the 40 million Whites added to the Nation between 1993 and 2020. Among the five most populous States for Whites over the period, California, Texas, and Florida are projected to have large increases in their White population (30 percent or more), while Pennsylvania should have almost no gain (under 1 percent) and New York a small loss (-4 percent).
In all regions except the West, the Black population (45 million in the Nation in 2020) is projected to be the second fastest growing among the four race groups and have the second largest gain in absolute population. More than half the 13 million Blacks added to the Nation over the projection period should be in the South. New York and California would contain the largest shares of the Nation's Blacks over the period, with 9 percent each in 2020. Florida, however, should have the biggest net gain. Its Black population should rise 1.5 million to over 3 million, moving it from fourth to third. Texas and Georgia, with roughly 3 million Blacks each, would complete the top five States with the largest Black population in 2020.
The Asian and Pacific Islander population (23 million in the Nation in 2020) is projected to be the fastest growing race group in all regions. The greatest gain for this group should occur in the West, with an increase of 8 million persons from 1993 to 2020. California is projected to have by far the largest share of the Nation's Asians and Pacific Islanders (almost 10 million in 2020). By 2020, New York and Texas should also have more than 1 million persons in this group.
The American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population (3 million in the Nation in 2020) is projected to be the second fastest growing population in the West from 1993 to 2020. Nearly three-quarters of the 1 million American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut persons added to the Nation are projected to reside in the West by 2020. Their population in Arizona should nearly double over the period, making it the most populous State for this group (415,000). Arizona, California, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Alaska combined should contain 52 percent of the American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population in 2020.
From 1993 to 2020, the Hispanic population2 (51 million in the Nation in 2020) is projected to increase the most in the West (13 million) and South (9 million) and the least in the Northeast and Midwest (2 million each). This group should account for more than a third of the growth in the Nation. California would not only have the most Hispanics but also the largest gain (over 8 million in 1993, more than 17 million in 2020). Texas (10 million - up 5 million), Florida (4 million), New York (3 million), and Illinois (2 million) would round out the top five States in 2020.
The proportion of youth should decline as the elderly population increases in all States.
In 2020, the West should have the greatest proportion of population under 20 years old (28 percent), compared with the Northeast with the smallest (25 percent). Among the 50 States and the District of Columbia, Utah would have the highest percentage of persons under 20 years old in 2020 (35 percent) and the District of Columbia the lowest (21 percent).
Most of the projected growth of the elderly population (65 years old and over) is concentrated in the West and South. Eight States - Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Washington, Georgia, Utah, Alaska, and California - would see a doubling in their number of elderly. Nonetheless, Florida, which should alone add over 2 million elderly (a near-doubling), would continue to have the highest proportion (19 percent in 1993, 26 percent in 2020). During the period from 2010 to 2020, the aging of the Baby Boom population (persons born between 1946 and 1964) should contribute to rapid increases of the elderly in all States.
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1 Results are from Series A, the preferred series, which is a time-series model and uses State-to-State migration observed from 1975-76 through 1991-92.2 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. The information on Hispanic projections shown in this report was compiled for the 50 States and the District of Columbia, and therefore, does not include projections for Puerto Rico.
For Further Information
See: Current Population Reports, Series P25-1111, Population Projections for States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to 2020.
