WPC  [t°izԛkv'=W>F`:3tȜ k(Lb6Y5QY{30Y'7{ižx[n_~k85G$w X4i(ץM;V a> oWf*ߘ%2 ]꾅TQHw`> z,\{`09~D5Zo8#T'1버kcţ!PL%O6]3l:(??Q|M|03G EMF\%vçuF16 w hZo?U)4%“eػ+(3Nn:E\5ъN1X_`ۻ+fHDJU=ꁮ_)vf_$=-DJd`Z"/QH&%'ckskOFΡـL? # U]N %1 0:7 Nq ^ s w 4  m b 0 ~ 0 D6sz5fT0[e!O#U@'U6(U>K(@J(o(be/i? 0j B-1G]ss #99999999999999999999 BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO 0Vlll A D+a 0K#|x\\CENSUS\PRED-TR2-2-HP9000-1A.PRED.DECENNIAL.HQ.CENSUSdttddtdt0(9 Z6Times New Roman RegularX($USUS., `. s.:i+00U- -(.(3($ !USUS.,      0  (#$  0   i  ($USUS.,    1    _ԀIn1999and2000,therelationshipbetweentrustintheCensusBureauspromiseof e confidentialityandselfreportedreturnofthecensusformwassmallerbutstillstatistically Q significant(Singer,2001,p.342).  ($USUS.,    2    _ԀTheprivacyindexconsistedofeightitems,onlytwoofwhichdealtexplicitlywiththe e CensusBureauorcensus.  ($USUS.,    3    _ԀThissectionisanabridgedversionofmaterialreportedinSinger(2001).   ($USUS.,    4    _ԀWhenrespondentswhoansweredNotSurewereaskedtoguess,theproportiongiving e thecorrectresponseincreasedto52.8percentand60.5percentin1999and2000,respectively, Q forthequestionaboutconfidentiality,andto20.8percentand24.2percentforthequestionabout = otheragencies(calculatedfromTable1inTourangeau,Singer,andPresser,forthcoming).  ($USUS.,    5    _ԀThefindingsofearlierstudiesarereviewedinBlair(1994). +  ($USUS.,    6    _ԀIn1995,itwastheImmigrationandNaturalizationService;in1996,itwastheFood e StampOffice;andin19992000itwas agenciesprovidingpublichousingassistance. J  ($USUS.,    7    _ԀTheorderofaskingaboutaccuracyandeconomywasrandomized,withthosewho e continuedtheiroppositiontoarecordsonlycensusbeingofferedthesecondreasonforchanging Q theirviews. &  ($USUS.,    8    _ԀWherepossible,Gallupmatchedthesampleoftelephonenumberstolistsofaddresses e beforethesurveyinordertosendadvanceletterstopotentialrespondenthouseholds.   ($USUS.,    9    _ԀTheresultsreportedherediffersomewhatfromthoseinthefinalreporttotheCensus e Bureaubecauseonlythedatafor2002areanalyzedhere.Foravarietyofreasons,theprediction Q from1999attitudesto2000behaviorwasdeemedunreliable.   ($USUS.,    10    _ԀThisisaverylowmatchrate.Forexample,fortheiranalysisofprivacyand e confidentialityasfactorsinresponsetothe1990census,Singer,MathiowetzandCouper(1993) Q usedrespondentstotheSurveyofCensusParticipation,carriedoutinthesummerof1990bythe = NationalOpinionResearchCenter(NORC)witharesponserateof89.8percent.Respondentsto ) thissurveyhadbeenlinkedtodecennialcensusinformationaspartofalargerprojectonsurvey  participation(seeGrovesandCouper,1998);97.6percentoftheaddressesweresuccessfully   matchedatthehouseholdlevel.SincetheSurveyofCensusParticipationwasafacetoface   survey,goodaddresseswereavailableforalloralmostallrespondents.  t  Q  ($USUS.,    11    _ԀFromMarch1999toMarch2000,some16.9percentofU.S.householdsmoved(U.S. e CensusBureau,CurrentPopulationSurvey,March2000);thereforesome5percentofthe Q householdsinterviewedin2000mayhavebeenoccupiedbyresidentsotherthanthosewhofilled = outthecensusform.Therespondentswerenotaskedwhethertheyhadlivedatthesameaddress ) onCensusDay.Inthe1990SurveyofCensusParticipation(_SCP_),some6percentofthesample  hadmovedbetweenCensusDayandthedateonwhichtheywereinterviewed(Singer,   Mathiowetz,andCouper,1993).InterviewingforoursurveybeganimmediatelyafterCensus   Day,whereasinterviewingforthe_SCP_ԀdidnotbeginuntilJuly;asaresult,thepercentageof  t moversinthecurrentstudyshouldhavebeenevensmaller. [  ($USUS.,    12    _ԀAccurateSSNsarethosewheretheSSNandnameprovidedbytherespondentmatch e anSSN,nameand,asneeded,yearofbirthandgenderontheCensusNumidentfile.See Q Brudvig,2003,pp.89fordetails. WestinMathiowetzCouperKulkaSteffeyBradburnpracticumWestatnonworkingnoncontactsnonresponseKerwinTourangeaufothcomingReanalyzing nonrespondentsBerkowitzBrudvigRaghunathan nonsignificant JunnHoewykNeugebauermultivariateDillmanGuarinoWoltmanmailout HCAs LCAs SSNsNumident HCA LCA"nonexperimentalDipkoTrivellore SQTTortoraMiskura J.J. R.L. R.M.J.M.M.TheeuwesInterSurvey NORC L.V.ZayatzElsevier E.R. T.E. 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Thistopicreportintegratesfindingsandprovidescontextandbackgroundforinterpretationof  resultsfromCensus2000evaluations,tests,andotherresearchundertakenbytheU.S.Census s Bureau.Itispartofabroadprogram,theCensus2000Testing,Experimentation,andEvaluation _ program,designedtoassessCensus2000andtoinform2010Censusplanning. K   qXX PreparedbyEleanorSinger $!  #XX qf #Y XX @0  0` (#(#    h      p #XX Y # qXXԀUniversityofMichigan &[!` (#` (# Ӏ Y&! _________________________________________________________ @  &! Ѐ @`  @  @  @h  @  @  @p     `     h   LindaBrudvig,ProjectManager '/#"    `     h      p        `     h      `     h      `     h Planning,Research,andEvaluationDivision  )g$& @    `     h      p      x    (#(#K(##XX q #( qXX#XX q)# qXX(#(#K(#n:*&`z0($  `(*EW-$ `$ `e - n (#(#(#(# w    ' #XX q# qXX #v,',(#(# #_ #XX q#H XX"<  CONTENTS    #XX # 1.0  BACKGROUND#""J(#. (#(##1  2.0  CHANGESINATTITUDESABOUTPRIVACY,CONFIDENTIALITYANDDATA  SHARINGOVERTIME#""J(#. (#(##3    2.10 ` Methods#""J(#.  ` (#` (##3 t    2.20 ` Limitations#nn(#. ` (#` (##.................................................4 `     2.30 ` Trendsinbeliefsaboutconfidentiality#""J(#.FF;` (#` (##4 L    2.40 ` Trendsinattitudestowardprivacy#""J(#.6` (#` (##7 8    2.50 ` AttitudestowardconfidentialityinPuertoRico#""J(#.  C` (#` (##7 $ t    2.60 ` Trendsinattitudestowarddatasharing#""J(#.;` (#` (##7 `   3.0  THEEFFECTOFTHECENSUSOUTREACHCAMPAIGNONATTITUDES 8  TOWARDCONFIDENTIALITYANDDATASHARING#""J(#.~~6(#(##9 $  4.0  THEIMPACTOFNEGATIVEPUBLICITYONPRIVACYCONCERNS#`"`"I(#.C(#(##11   Ѐ  5.0  THEEFFECTOFPRIVACYCONFIDENTIALITYCONCERNSONCENSUS  PARTICIPATION#`"`"I(#. (#(##13 p    ` 6.0  PUBLICPERCEPTIONSOFAGENCYCONFIDENTIALITYPRACTICES#`"`"I(#.LLE(#(##15 H    ` 7.0  THEEFFECTOFAREQUESTFORSOCIALSECURITYNUMBERS#`"`"I(#.B(#(##16  p 8.0  THEROLEOFTHEPARTNERSHIPPROGRAMINPRIVACYATTITUDES#`"`"I(#.> > G(#(##18 H 9.0  ATTITUDESANDBEHAVIOR#`"`"I(#.dd%(#(##18   10.0  THEROLEOFINFORMEDCONSENT#`"`"I(#.+(#(##19  11.0  SUMMARYOFFINDINGS#`"`"I(#."(#(##20     11.10 ` Trendsinattitudes,19952000#`"`"I(#.2` (#` (##20 l!   11.20 ` TheeffectofCensusBureaupublicrelationsactivitiesonbeliefsabout X"  confidentiality#`"`"I(#. #` (#` (##21 D#!   11.30 ` Attitudesandbehavior#`"`"I(#.||*` (#` (##21 0$"   11.40 ` WillingnesstoprovideSSNs#`"`"I(#.0` (#` (##22 %l #   12.0  CONCLUSIONSANDRECOMMENDATIONSFORFUTURERESEARCH#`"`"I(#.B(#(##22 &!%   12.10 ` Conclusions#`"`"I(#.> > ` (#` (##22 '"&   12.20 ` Recommendations................................................23l(#'` (#` (# (#(#K(#Acknowledgments............................................................25 D*%) References..................................................................26  0+&*  "< "! e "   2 XX  -/V0Oa'Oa4e#[)Oa&Oa+Oa ,Oa 2Oa 3Oa 6W*Oa7N8Oa9Oa=e>Oa@Oa 1.0 @ BACKGROUND#XX \!#  e {!TheCensus2000Testing,Experimentation,andEvaluationProgramprovidesmeasuresof e effectivenessfortheCensus2000design,operations,systems,andprocessesandprovides Q informationonthevalueofnewordifferentmethodologies.Theresultsandrecommendations = fromtheseanalysesprovidevaluableinformationcrucialtoplanningthe2010Census.By )  providingmeasuresofhowwellCensus2000wasconducted,thisprogramfullysupportsthe   CensusBureausstrategytointegratethe2010planningprocesswithongoingMasterAddress   File/TIGERenhancementsandtheAmericanCommunitySurvey.Thepurposeofthereportthat   followsistosynthesizeresultsfromrelatedCensus2000evaluations,experiments,andother  t  assessmentstomakerecommendationsforplanningthe2010Census.Census2000Testing,  `  Experimentation,andEvaluationreportsareavailableontheCensusBureausInternetsiteat: L  http://www.census.gov/pred/www/. 8  Themailreturntothe1990U.S.censusaveraged64.6percent,some10percentagepointsless u  thanin1980and5pointslessthanhadbeenanticipatedbytheCensusBureau(Singer, a  Mathiowetz,andCouper,1993).Onehypothesisputforwardforthereducedreturnratewas M increasedpublicconcernaboutprivacy,documentedinaseriesofsurveysbytheHarris 9 Organization(Westin,1990),andaboutconfidentiality.Inthisreport,concernabout % confidentialityreferstoadesiretokeepinformationalreadygiventooneagentoutofthehands  ofothers;concernaboutprivacyreferstoadesiretokeepinformationoutofthehandsofothers  altogether.Althoughthereissomeevidencethatthepublicmaybeblurringthedistinction  betweentheseconcepts(Martin,2000),thedistinctionappearstobeameaningfuloneinmuchof p theresearchreportedhere.AlthoughtheOutreachEvaluationStudy,carriedoutbytheCensus \ Bureauin1990,foundthatthelargemajorityofrespondentsbelievedthatcensusdataarekept H confidential(Fay,Bates,andMoore,1991:18),andthatsuchbeliefshadnotdeclinedsincethe 4 lastdecennialcensus,italsodocumentedasignificantchangeintherelationshipbetweentrustin   theCensusBureausassuranceofconfidentialityandself-reportedcensusreturnrate.Whereas q  trustwasnotpredictiveofself-reportedreturnsin1980,itwaspredictiveofsuchreturnsin1990 ] (ibid.andtable4),withsome17pointsseparatingtheself-reportedreturnratesofthosewitha I highandalowdegreeoftrust. #  1      ׀ 5  Inananalysisofactualcensusmailreturnratesandattitudestowardprivacyandconfidentiality  "  (asmeasuredintheSurveyofCensusParticipation,carriedoutbytheNationalOpinionResearch "! Centerinthesummerof1990),Singer,Mathiowetz,andCouper(1993)foundthatbothattitudes #"  werepredictiveofactualreturns,withconcernsaboutconfidentiality,measuredbyaseriesof $l # itemsallpertainingtothecensus,thestrongerpredictorofthetwo. #  2      ׀Inasubsequentanalysisthat e  pittedconcernsaboutprivacyandconfidentialityagainstotherattitudes,demographic Q characteristics,andvariousmeasuresofcompetingdemandsaswellasaccessandcapacity, = Couper,Singer,andKulka(1998)demonstratedthatconfidentialityconcerns(butnotconcerns ) aboutprivacy)remainedasignificantpredictorofmailreturnstothe1990census.  AddingtotheCensusBureausuneasewasaNationalAcademyofSciencespanel   recommendationthatitconsiderusingadministrativerecordstoimprovetheaccuracyofthe  t Census2000count(SteffeyandBradburn,1994).Itwashypothesizedthatsuchdatasharing  ` amongfederalagencies,ifitbecamepublicknowledge,mightincreaseexistingconfidentiality  L  concerns,asmightarequestfortherespondentsSocialSecuritynumber(SSN)tofacilitatethe  8  mergingofinformation. $  Asaresultofthesevariousdevelopments,theCensusBureauintheearly1990sembarkedona a  programofprivacy-relatedresearch,includingfocusgroups,large-scaleexperiments,and M  commitmenttosupportaseriesofcross-sectionalsurveysthatwouldtrackattitudesabout 9  privacyandconfidentiality,especiallyastheserelatedtothedecennialcensusandtheproposalto % supplementthetraditionalcountbyuseofadministrativerecords.Thisreportsynthesizesthe  findingsresultingfromthatprogramunderthefollowingheadings:Changesinattitudesabout  privacy,confidentialityanddatasharingovertime;theeffectoftheCensusoutreachcampaign  onattitudestowardconfidentialityanddatasharing;theimpactofnegativepublicityonprivacy p concerns;theeffectofprivacyconfidentialityconcernsoncensusparticipation;public \ perceptionsofagencyconfidentialitypractices;theeffectofarequestforSocialSecurity H numbers;theroleofthepartnershipprograminprivacyattitudes;attitudesandbehavior;andthe 4 roleofinformedconsent.Theresearchprojectsservingasthebasisfortheevaluationwerethe   SurveysofPrivacyAttitudes(SPA);theSocialSecurityNumber,PrivacyAttitudes,and q  Notificationexperiment(SPAN),whichexaminedtheeffectofrequestingSocialSecurity ] numbersonunitanditemnonresponsetothecensusform;theSurveyofPartners,which I questionedorganizationsthatparticipatedintheoutreachprogramonwhattheythoughtwas 5 effectiveorineffectiveaboutthecampaign;thereportoffocusgroupsheldinPuertoRicoon ! whyhouseholdsdidnotmailbacktheCensus2000questionnaire;anethnographicinvestigation   ofpeoplesprivacyschemas;andanInternetsurveyofprivacyattitudesduringCensus2000.   However,drawinginferencesfromthisresearchforthepublicsbehaviorsevenyearsfromnow "l! isrisky.TheworldhaschangeddrasticallysinceCensus2000andtheresearchreviewedhere #X" werecarriedout.AterroristattackleveledtheWorldTradeCenteranddamagedthePentagon. $D # Thefuture,intermsofotherterroristattacksontheUnitedStatesandmorestringentsecurity %0!$ laws,isuncertain.Alloftheseeventshavepotentialimplicationsfortheclimateofpublic &"% opinionthatwillsurroundthenextdecennialcensus,butitisimpossibleatpresenttopredict m'#& eitherwhatthatclimatewillbeorhowitwillaffectdatacollectionefforts. Y(#' -/V -X -  SinceCensus2000,twopiecesoflegislationdiametricallyopposedintheirimplicationshave Q bothbeenenactedintolaw.TheE-GovernmentAct,passedinNovember2002,provided = unprecedentedprotectionsfortheconfidentialityofdatacollectedbygovernmentagencies.In ) principle,theexistenceofthislegislationshouldmakeiteasiertoreassurethepublicthatthe  informationtheyprovidetotheCensusBureau,aswellasothergovernmentagencies,cannotbe   usedinadministrativeproceedingsagainstthem,andthattheconfidentialityofthisinformation   isprotectedbystronglegislationandappropriatepenalties.However,theUSAPatriotActwas  t alsoenactedintolawsinceCensus2000,andextensionstoitarebeingplannedasthisisbeing  ` written.TheimplicationsofthatlegislationfortheabilityoftheJusticeDepartmentandother  L  lawenforcementagenciestogainaccesstodataregardlessoftheconfidentialityassurancesgiven  8  byotheragencieshavenotyetbeentested.Asaresult,itisbynomeansclearwhattheneteffect $  ofthesetwopiecesoflegislationwillbe. u    G  XX  2.0 @ CHANGESINATTITUDESABOUTPRIVACY,CONFIDENTIALITY, M  ANDDATASHARINGOVERTIME #  3      #XX G# a  GXX2.10  Methods#XXH#    a(#(# Thefindingsreportedinthissectionarebasedlargelyonfoursurveysofthetelephone K population18andoverresidinginthecontiguous48statescarriedoutbetween1995and2000. 7 ThefirstwasdevelopedinconsultationwiththeCensusBureauaspartoftheUniversityof # Marylands1995JointPrograminSurveyMethodologypracticum.Thesecond,whichuseda  questionnairevirtuallyidenticaltothatin1995,wascarriedoutbyWestatin1996undercontract  totheCensusBureau.Thethirdandfourth,doneinJulythroughOctober1999,justbeforethe  startofthepublicrelationscampaignandnationwidefieldrecruitingforCensus2000,andfrom n ApriltoJulyof2000,afterdeliveryofcensusformstoU.S.households,weredonebythe Z UniversityofMichiganundercontractwiththeCensusBureau,withdatacollectedbyThe F GallupOrganization. 2 Allfoursurveysusedvirtuallyidenticalmethodsandachievedverysimilarresponserates.All o  wererandomdigitdialedsurveyswithonememberofthehouseholdaged18oroverrandomly [! selectedafterhouseholdlistingbytheinterviewer.Theresponseratesforeachsurveyareshown G"  below:YXX 3#! #XXYN#  Year0 0 (# (#SampleSize0(#(#0p(#(#ResponseRate$~ #p(#p(#    ` YXX19950 0 (# (#0h(#(#14430h(#h(#0(#(#0p(#(#0p(#p(#61a%j!$(#(#    ` 19960 0 (# (#0h(#(#12150h(#h(#0(#(#0p(#(#0p(#p(#60b&."%(#(#    ` 19990 0 (# (#0h(#(#16770h(#h(#0(#(#0p(#(#0p(#p(#62bW'"&(#(#    ` 20000 0 (# (#0h(#(#19780h(#h(#0(#(#0p(#(#0p(#p(#61b#XX,YP#(#'(#(# YXXԀaInterviewsdividedbythetotalsamplelessbusinesses,nonworkingnumbers,andnumbersthatwerenever )f%) answeredafteraminimumof20calls. **&* bInterviewsdividedbythetotalsamplelessbusinesses,nonworkingnumbers,andtheestimatednumberof S+&+ ineligiblesamongthenoncontacts. ,', 0Oa 0X 0  #XXYbS# XX2.2Limitations#XXgU#  e AnumberoflimitationsattendthefindingssummarizedinSection2.First,thepopulation O coveredexcludesadultslivinginnon-telephonehouseholdsandnon-Englishspeakers(exceptfor ; Spanishspeakersin1999and2000).Second,comparedtofacetofacesurveys,theresponse ' ratesobtainedarerelativelylow;third,attitudesaboutconfidentialityanddatasharingmay   belongtotherealmofnonattitudes!thatis,attitudesthatarecreatedonthespotandtherefore   ephemeral;finally,theorganizationscarryingoutthesurveyshavechangedovertheyears.   TheselimitationsarediscussedinmoredetailinSinger(2001).Inbrief,thereisreasontobelieve  ^  thatthebiasintroducedbynonresponsetothesurveyisrelativelysmall,butthatitservesto  J  underestimateprivacyconcernsandoppositiontodatasharing.Thereisalsoreasontobelieve 6  thatrespondentsanswerquestionsaboutnovelphenomenanotinrandomfashion,butratherin "  lightoftheirattitudestowardknown,relatedstimuli.Examinationofthesurveyfindingsand s  relatedbehaviorssuggeststhatattitudesbearanontrivialrelationshiptorelevantbehavior, _  especiallywhentheobjectoftheattitudeandthebehaviorareidentical(i.e.,provisionofaSSN). K  Changesintheorganizationscarryingoutthesurveysareanotherpotentialthreattothedata,and, # giventhatthreedifferentsurveyorganizationscarriedoutfoursurveys,thereisnowaytocontrol  forthiseffect.However,manyso-called houseeffectsareattributabletovariationsinquestion  orderordifferencesinprobingofDontKnowresponses.Questionorderwasvirtuallyidentical  acrossthefoursurveysdiscussedhere,andDontKnowandNotSureratesareverysimilar n acrossthefoursurveys.Furthermore,thepatternofchangesinresponsesovertimevariesfrom Z questiontoquestion,makingitunlikelythatthereareconsistenthouseeffectsinthesedata. F Changesinsamplecompositionthatmightresultfromdifferentcallingalgorithmsanddifferent 2 refusalconversionstrategiesarecompensatedtosomeextentbyweightingthedatatoknown  censusdistributions,althoughsuchweightingobviouslycannotcompensateforattitudinal o  differencesthatmightbeassociatedwithvariationsinsamplecompositionduetodifferential [ recruitmentandfollow-upstrategies.Thislastlimitationpotentiallyaffectstheaccuracyofthe G estimatedtrendsfrom1995to2000.Becausethesameorganizationcarriedoutthe1999and 3 2000surveys,estimatesofattitudestabilityandchangeduringthosetwoyearsshouldbeless   affected.  ! Apotentialsourceofbiasinthreeofthesurveysistheintroduction,whichin1996,1999,and "~! 2000mentionedboththefactthatthesurveywas astudyofpeoplesattitudesaboutwhether #j" governmentagencieskeepinformationaboutthemprivateandthatitwasbeingdoneonbehalf $V # oftheU.S.CensusBureau.Thismayhavereducedtheparticipationofpeoplemostconcerned %B!$ aboutprivacy,aswellasthatofpeoplewithunfavorableattitudestowardtheCensusBureau. &."% XX 2.30  Trendsinbeliefsaboutconfidentiality#XXwd# ($'(#(# TrendsinbeliefsabouttheCensusBureaustreatmentofpersonalinformationweremeasuredin i*&) severaldifferentwaysonthesesurveys.Earlyintheinterview,respondentswereaskedfortheir U+&* 'Oa ' '  beliefsaboutCensusBureaupractices.Laterquestionsprobedtheirknowledgeofthelaws e governingconfidentialitypractices,andthenthoseknowledgeableabouttherelevantlawswere Q askedwhethertheytrustedtheCensusBureautoobeythem.Finally,attheveryendofthe = interview,respondentswereaskedseveralquestionsaboutpotentialmisusesofcensusdata ) involvingbreachesofconfidentiality.Mostquestionswereaskedinallfouryears,butsome  wereaskedinonlythree,asaresultofourexperiencewiththe1995survey.   Thefirstquestiondesignedtoprobebeliefsaboutactualpracticesasked, Doyoubelieveother  t agencies,outsidetheCensusBureau,canorcannotgetpeoplesnamesandaddressesalongwith  ` theiranswerstothecensus,orareyounotsure?Theintroductiontothequestionreferredback  L  tothedemographicquestionsaskedontheshortformandinformedpeoplethat thepersoninthe  8  householdwhofillsouttheformmustlistthefullnameofeveryonewholivestherealongwith $  eachpersonsage,sex,race,[andmaritalstatus.]Thesecondquestion,askedforthefirsttime u  in1996toassesswhetheruseoftheterm confidentialitywouldchangethepatternof a  responses,was, DoyouthinktheCensusBureaudoesordoesnotprotecttheconfidentialityof M  thisinformation,orareyounotsure?withanintroductionidenticaltothatalreadyquoted. 9  Respondentsin1996wererandomlyassignedtoonequestionortheother.Finally,in1999and % 2000,inordertotrytoclarifyearlierinconsistencies,onethirdofthesamplewasaskedbothof  thesequestions(withtheorderofquestionsrandomized),followedbyanopen-endedquestion  aboutthemeaningofconfidentialitytotherespondent.  ResponsestothetwoquestionsinquiringintobeliefsaboutCensusBureaupracticesshowa \ significantincreasebetween1996and2000intheproportiongivingthecorrectresponse(that H otheragenciescannotgetthedata,andthattheCensusBureauprotectsconfidentiality)--from6.1 4 percentto17.3percentinthecaseof canget(Singeretal.,2001,Table2.7),andfrom12.9   percentto25.1percentinthecaseofconfidentiality(ibid.,Table2.8).Unlikelaterquestions q  discussedinthissection,thesequestionsofferedanexplicitNotSurecategorytorespondents. ] TheverylargeproportionofNotSureanswers,whichisperhapsthemoststrikingfeatureofboth I tables,is,therefore,afunctionbothofthepublicslackofinformationandoftheresponse 5 optionsofferedbythequestion;cf.SchumanandPresser(1981).In1996,forexample,when ! thequestionswereaskedbothwithanexplicitNotSureoptionand,insplit-ballotform,without   suchanoption,theNotSurerateshowndroppedfrom46.8percentto7.7percent;however,the   ratioofcorrecttoincorrectresponsesdidnotchange(KerwinandEdwards,1996,Table7). #  4      ׀ !  DatacomparabletothosereportedabovearealsoavailablefromaNationalResearchCouncil #X" (1979)studyinquiringintoconfidentialityconcernsasfactorsinsurveyresponse,whichaskedan $D # almostidenticalquestion.Reanalyzingtheresponsestothisquestion,Bricketal.(1997)report %0!$ that39percentbelievedCensusrecordswereavailabletootheragencies,9percentbelievedthey &"% 4e 4 4  werenot,and51percentsaidtheydidnotknow.Thesefiguresarequitesimilartothose e obtainedin1995,althoughalargerpercentageansweredDontKnowandasmallerpercentage Q offeredtheincorrectresponsein1979. = Neartheendofthe1996interview,respondentswereaskedforthefirsttimewhethertheCensus  Bureauwasforbiddenbylawfromsharingidentifieddatawithotheragencies,or(ina   split-ballotversion)whethertheCensusBureauwasrequiredbylawtokeepthedata   confidential.Thesequestionswererepeatedin1999and2000.Trendsinresponsestothe  t  forbiddenbylawquestionshowalargeincreaseintheproportiongivingthecorrectresponse  ` ( Forbiddenbylaw)between1996and1999,andafurtherproportionalincreasebetween1999  L  and2000(Singer,etal.,2001,Table2.18),althoughevenin2000thecorrectresponsewasgiven  8  bylessthanhalfthesample.Incorrectresponsesalsoincreasedbetween1996and1999,butthis $  trendwasdramaticallyreversedin2000,perhapsasaresultoftheCensusBureauspublic u  relationscampaigninconnectionwiththedecennialcensus.Ineveryyear,theproportion a  believingthatthereisalawrequiringconfidentialityismuchlargerthantheproportionbelieving M  thatthereisalawforbiddingdatasharingwithotheragencies(ibid.,Tables2.18and2.19). 9  However,justasthepercentageofthosecorrectlyperceivingtheCensusBureausprotectionof  confidentialityincreasedbetween1995and2000,sodidthepercentageofthosesayingitwould  botherthem alotifanothergovernmentagencygottheiranswerstothecensus,alongwith  theirnameandaddress,oriftheiranswerstothecensuswerenotkeptconfidential.The p percentageresponding alottotheformerquestionincreasedsignificantlyfrom36.8percentto \ 45.6percentbetween1995and2000(ibid.,Table2.16);correspondingresponsestothelatter H questionincreasedfrom36.6percentto49.6percentbetween1996,thefirsttimethequestion 4 wasasked,and2000(ibid.,Table2.17).Inbothcases,thelargestincreaseoccurredbetween   1996and1999,withthefurtherchangebetween1999and2000notstatisticallysignificant. q  Inallthreeyears,respondentswhoindicatedthattherewerelawsforbiddingdatasharingor I requiringconfidentialitywereaskedwhethertheytrustedtheCensusBureautoobeytheselaws. 5 Inallthreeyears,abouttwothirdsofthoseaskedsaidtheywouldtrusttheCensusBureauto ! upholdthelaw(ibid.,Table2.20).   Almostattheendofthequestionnaire,respondentswereaskedthreequestionsdesignedto !  measuretheprevalenceofsuspicionssometimesvoicedaboutthemisuseofcensusdataforlaw "l! enforcementpurposes.Thefirstoftheseasked(in1995,1999,and2000), Doyoubelievethe #X" policeandtheFBIusethecensustokeeptrackoftroublemakers?Thepercentageofthose $D # givingthecorrectresponse(i.e.,thatitisnotusedforthatpurpose)increasedslightly,from49.0 %0!$ percentto52.1percent,between1995and1999,andthensubstantially,to63.5percent,between &"% 1999and2000(theoverallchangeisstatisticallysignificantat.001).Thesecondquestion,asked m'#& onlyin1999and2000,asked, Howabouttolocateillegalaliens?Doyoubelievethecensusis Y(#' usedforthat?Thepercentagevoicingthisbeliefdeclinedsignificantly,from50.3percentin E)$( 1999to42.1percentin2000.Finally,respondentsin1999and2000wereasked, Doyouagree 1*%) ordisagreethatpeoplesanswerstothecensuscanbeusedagainstthem?Thepercentage +&* agreeingdeclinedfrom39.2percentto37.3percent,butthischangewasnotstatistically  ,'+ significant(ibid.,p.35). ,(, #[  # #  Martin(2001)reportsthatagreementthatpeoplesanswerscanbeusedagainstthemincreased e significantlyduringtheperiodfollowingmailingoftheCensus2000forms;herfindingisbased Q onInter-Surveytrackingsurveyswithindependentsamples.TheSurveysofPrivacyAttitudes = (SPA)alsofoundanincreaseinagreementwiththisstatementbyinterviewdate(logged)during ) the2000survey(p=.2)(Singer,2001,footnote9).Thus,thereisevidenceofalong-termdecline  insuspicionabouttheuseofcensusdataforlawenforcementpurposes,coupledwithheightened   suspicionduringthedatacollectionperioditself.    XX2.40  Trendsinattitudestowardprivacy#XX#  `(#(# Sofar,wehaveconsideredtrendsinbeliefsaboutconfidentiality.SPAalso,however,asked  J  questionsaboutprivacy,asdistinctfromconfidentiality.Onequestionaskedspecifically 6  whethertherespondentregardedtheCensusBureausaskingaboutage,race,andsex,alongwith "  nameandaddress,asaninvasionofprivacy;othersweremoregeneralquestions.Someofthese s  questionswereaskedinallfouryears;mostwereaskedonlyin1995,andthenagainin1999and _  2000. K  Therewasasmallbutsignificantdeclinebetween1995and2000inthepercentageofthesample # regardingthequestionsaskedonthecensusshortformasaninvasionofprivacy;23.5percent  regardeditasaninvasionin1995,and20.9percentdidsoin2000(Singeretal.,2001,Table  2.6).ScoresonthePrivacyIndex,consistingofanswerstothefivemoregeneralprivacy  questions,alsodeclinedslightlybutsignificantlyduringthisperiod. n  XX2.50  AttitudestowardconfidentialityinthePuertoRicansample#XX # F(#(# AsmallsampleofPuertoRicanresidentswasinterviewedbytelephoneaspartoftheSPAin 0 2000.ThissampleexpressedlessconcernaboutprivacyandmoretrustintheCensusBureauto  protectconfidentialitythanthemainlandsampledid(Singeretal.,pp.107).Itispossiblethat m nonrespondentstothesurvey--the43percentofthesamplewhodidnotanswerthesurvey--and Y those(roughlyonethirdofthepopulation)whodonotownatelephonemayholdattitudesquite E differentfromthoseoftheinterviewedsample.Itwasnotpossibletomatchthecensusreturnsof 1  thePuertoRicansampletotheirsurveyresponsesinordertoexaminetherelationbetween ! privacyattitudesandcensusreturnsdirectly.FocusgroupdiscussionsofwhyPuertoRicansdid  "  notmailbacktheircensusformsrevealedconcernsaboutconfidentialityasonefactormentioned "! byparticipants(BerkowitzandBrudvig,2001,pp.17-18),buttheycannotinformusaboutthe #|" importanceofthatfactorrelativetoothers. $h #  XX2.60  Trendsinattitudestowarddatasharing#XX# &@"%(#(# Singer,Schaeffer,andRaghunathan(1997)haveshownthatopinionsaboutdatasharingare (*$' relatedinpredictablewaystotrustingovernment,toconfidenceintheCensusBureauspromise {)%( ofconfidentiality,tofeelingsofpoliticaleffectiveness,andtoamoregeneralinclinationtoshare g*&) orwithholdpersonalinformation.Althoughsuchopinionsmayshiftinresponsetomedia S+&* attentiontotheissue(KerwinandForsyth,1998,p.19),theycanusefullyberegardedas ?,'+ reflectingthesegeneralpredispositions. +-(, )Oa  ) )  .e Trendsinattitudestowardthreedifferentissuesareexploredintheseriesofsurveysunder e discussionhere:theuseofadministrativerecordstoreducetheundercount;theuseofsuch Q recordstoreplacetheconventionalcensus;andtheuseofadministrativerecordstoprovidethe = informationcurrentlycollectedbymeansofthecensuslongform. #  5      ׀Questionsaboutreducingthe ) undercountwereaskedintermsofdatasharingbytheSocialSecurityAdministration,the  InternalRevenueService(IRS),andoneadditionalagency,whichvariedfromyeartoyear;| #  6      ׀the   orderinwhichagencieswereaskedaboutwasrandomlyrotated.Questionsaboutarecords-only   censusdidnotspecifyanyparticularagency,andquestionsaboutthelongformwereaskedonly  t abouttheIRSandasecondagency,whichalsovariedfromyeartoyear.Ineachcase,the  ` questionaboutadministrativerecordswasprecededbyashortdescriptionoftheproblemtheir  L  usewasdesignedtoaddress.Thus,respondentswerefirstinformedabouttheexistenceofthe  8  undercount,andthenaskedhowtheyfeltaboutspecificfederalagenciessharingdatawiththe $  CensusBureauinorderto identifypeoplewhoaremissedinthecensus.Tomotivatetheuse u  ofadministrativerecordstoreplacetheconventionalcount,respondentsweretold, Noone a  wouldbeaskedtofillouta[census]form.Instead,theCensusBureauwouldcounttheentire M  populationbygettinginformationfromothergovernmentagencies.Thequestionabout 9  replacingthelongformwasprecededbyaquestionprobingawarenessoftheexistenceofthe % longform,andthequestionitselfcontainedafairlylengthyrationale: Othergovernment  agencies...alreadyhavesomeoftheinformationaskedonthelongform.Ithasbeenproposed  thattheygivethisinformationtotheCensusBureau.Combininginformationfromagencies  wouldmeanthateveryonecouldfillouttheshortforminsteadofsomepeoplehavingtofillout p thelongerform.Tomakethispossible,wouldyoufavororoppose... \ Allthreequestionsshowadeclineinapprovalfordatasharingbetween1995and2000,andin 4 everyyear,thosestronglyopposedoutnumberthosestronglyinfavor(Singeretal.,2001,Tables   2.21-2.28).Thedeclineinsupportforarecords-onlycensusisalmostlinear,withthetotaldrop q  between1995and2000amountingtoapproximatelyseventeenpercentagepoints(ibid.,Table ] 2.29).Thoseopposedtoarecords-onlycensuswerethenaskedwhethertheywouldfavoritifit I ledtoincreasedaccuracyand(iftheywerestillopposed)ifitsavedmoney. #  7      ׀Theargumentabout 5 accuracypersuadedmorepeoplethantheargumentabouteconomy(ibid.,Tables2.30and2.31). ! Thepercentageremainingopposedinthefaceofbothargumentsincreasedfrom16percentin   1996to23percentin1999and24percentin2000(ibid.,pp.43-44).Thosewhoremained   opposedwereaskedaboutthereasonsfortheiropposition.Themostfrequentlygivenreasons !  involvedconcernsaboutprivacyandconfidentiality,givenby22percentin1999and29percent "l! &Oa  & &  in2000;thesecondmostfrequentreasonwasabeliefthatsuchacensuswouldbelessaccurate e (17percentin1999and19percentin2000)(ibid.,p.44). Q Since1995,theSurveysofPrivacyAttitudeshaveinquiredwhetherpeoplewereawareofthe ) longformandwhethertheywouldbewillingtohavegovernmentagenciessharedatawiththe  CensusBureauinordertoeliminateit.Onlyaboutonefifthofthepopulationwasawareofthe   existenceofthelongformin1996,downsomewhatfrom1995,andthatfigurehaddeclinedto   17percentin1999.Butbythetimeofthe2000survey,whichwentintothefieldtheweekafter  t censusformsweredeliveredtoeveryU.S.household,some59percentclaimedawarenessofthe  ` longform(ibid.,Table2.32).However,increasedawarenessdidnottranslateintoincreased  L  approvalofhavinggovernmentagenciessuchastheIRSsharedatawiththeCensusBureauin  8  ordertoeliminatetheneedforthelongform.Thepercentagefavoringdatasharingforthis $  purposedeclinedfrom52.2percentin1995to42.9percentin2000,atanaveragerateofabout u  twopercentagepointsperyear(ibid.,Table2.33);and,asinthecaseofdatasharingtoreduce a  theundercount,thosestronglyopposedtodatasharingoflong-forminformationoutnumbered M  thosestronglyinfavorbyroughlytwotoone(ibid.,Tables2.34and2.35). 9  Ineveryyear,thepublicwasmorereluctanttopermitsharingofsensitivedatathantopermit  sharingoftheinformationneededtoproduceacountofthepopulation.However,thegap  betweenthelongandshortformactuallydeclined,overtheyears,fromabout18percentage  pointsin1995toabout12percentagepointsin2000,becausereluctancetopermitsharingeven p short-forminformationbytheIRSdeclinedatagreaterrate(ibid.,Table2.36).Not \ unexpectedly,thosewhobelievedtheCensusBureauprotectsdataconfidentialitywere H significantlymorewillingtohaveotheragenciessharelong-formdatawiththeCensusBureauin 4 allthreeyears(ibid.,Table2.38).      XX3.THEEFFECTOFTHECENSUSOUTREACHCAMPAIGNON ] ATTITUDESTOWARDCONFIDENTIALITYANDDATASHARING q  #XX #    ` Chapter3ofthefinalreportontheSPAassessestheeffectoftheCensusOutreachCampaignon q  attitudestowardconfidentialityanddatasharingbycomparingattitudesin1999and2000,using ]  thetwocross-sectionalsurveysconductedinthoseyears.Thesurveysusedidentical I! questionnaires,identicalmethodsofsamplingandinterviewing,hadverysimilarresponserates, 5"  andweredonebythesamesurveyorganization,soitisreasonabletoassumethattheyare !#! measuringchangeintherelevantattitudes.However,theanalysesdonotcontrolforother  $" demographiccharacteristics,soitispossible"butveryunlikely--thatdifferencesinthe $ # compositionofthesamplemightaccountforthedifferencesobserved. %!$ Thecomparisonrevealsanumberofsignificantchangesinattitudesduringthetenmonths 'X#& separatingthetwosurveys.Peoplesawarenessoftheusestowhichthecensusisputincreased, (D$' asdidtheimportancetheyattachedtoit.Althoughtherewasnochangeinthepercentage"afifth )0%( ofthepopulation"whoconsideredthecensusaninvasionofprivacy,therewasasignificant *&)  m+'* +Oa  + +  declineinthepercentageofthoseperceiving,correctly,thatothergovernmentagenciescouldnot e getcensusdataidentifiedbynameandaddress.Thepercentageofthosewhoknewthatthe Q CensusBureauisrequiredbylawtoprotecttheconfidentialityofthedataitcollects(or = forbiddenbylawtodiscloseit)alsoincreasedsignificantly.Thesechangesare,inalllikelihood, ) attributabletopublicityaboutthecensus,sinceinmostcasestheyreverseordramatically  acceleratetrendsapparentfrom1995to1999(ibid.,p.3,59-65).   Atthesametime,anumberofrelatedquestionsshowednosignificantchangebetween1999and  t 2000,eventhoughthemessagesdisseminatedbygovernmentmighthavebeenexpectedtohave  ` animpactonresponsestoatleastsomeofthem.First,andperhapsmostimportant,therewasno  L  significantincreaseinthepercentageofthosewhosaidtheybelievethegovernmentprotectsthe  8  confidentialityofthedata.(Giventheotherfindingscitedhere,weareinclinedtointerpretthe $  absenceofchangeinresponsestothisquestionassignifyingthatittappedanelementoftrust u  ratherthanawarenessorknowledgeaboutthelaw.)Norwasthereasignificantincreaseinthe a  percentageofthosesayingtheytrusttheCensusBureautokeepdataconfidential.Thisquestion M  wasaskedonlyofthosewhoanswered,correctly,thattheCensusBureauisrequiredbylawto 9  protecttheconfidentialityofthedataitcollects(orpreventedbylawfromdisclosingit),a % percentagethatdidshowasignificantincreasebetweenthetwoyears.Norwasthereanychange  inthegeneralizedtrustwhichpeopleexpressedinthefederalgovernment(ibid.,p.3,59-65).  AseriesofquestionspertainingdirectlytowillingnesstohavetheCensusBureauusedatafrom p otheragenciestofixtheundercount,eliminatetheneedforacensusaltogether,oreliminatethe \ needforansweringquestionsonthelongform,eithershowednochangebetween1999and2000 H or,inthecaseofwillingnesstohaveagenciessharedatatoeliminatethecensus,showeda 4 significantdecline.Similarly,willingnesstoprovideonesSSNinordertofacilitatesuch   sharingshowednosignificantchangebetweenthesetwoyears.Itishardtoknowhowto q  interpretthesefindings.Asignificantdeclineinwillingnesstohaveagenciessharedata,andto ] provideonesSSN,hadbeenapparentsince1995or1996.Thistrendappearstohavebeen I halted,ifnotreversed,between1999and2000. 5 Finally,theredoesnotappeartohavebeenanincreasebetween1999and2000inconcernabout   eitherprivacyingeneralortheprivacyofcensus-relatedinformation.Anindicatorof   generalizedprivacyconcernsshowedasmallbutsignificantdeclinebetween1999and2000 !  (ibid.,p.3);however,thisdeclinewasnolongersignificantwhendemographicvariableswere "l! controlled(Table3.1).Responsestothequestionsthatasked, Howmuchwoulditbotheryouif #X" anothergovernmentagency,outsidetheCensusBureau,gotyournameandaddress,alongwith $D # youranswerstothecensus?and Howmuchwoulditbotheryouifyouranswerstothecensus %0!$ werenotkeptconfidential?showedasimilarpattern,withsizableincreasesinconcernfrom &"% 1995(or1996,thefirsttimethequestionaboutconfidentialitywasasked)to1999,andonly m'#& small,nonsignificantincreasesthereafter(ibid.,Tables2.16,2.17). Y(#' Singeretal.(2001,pp.66-68)alsoexamineddemographicpredictorsofsomeoftheseattitudes. 1*%) Bettereducatedrespondentsin1999and2000weremoreknowledgeableaboutthecensusand +&* considereditmoreimportantthanthosewithlesseducation;theyexpressedfewerprivacy  ,'+ ,Oa  , ,  concernsandwerelesslikelytoseethecensusasaninvasionofprivacyortobelievecensus e informationwillbemisused.Theyweresignificantlymorelikelytobelievethatotheragencies Q cannotgetidentifiedcensusdataandthattheCensusBureauprotectsdataconfidentiality;they = weremorewillingtohaveagenciesprovidedatatotheCensusBureautoeliminatethelongform ) andtoprovidetheirSSNtomakethispossible.  Peoplewhoseracialidentificationwasotherthanwhiteweresignificantlymoreconcernedabout   privacythanwhites,lesslikelytobelievetheCensusBureauprotectsconfidentiality;lesslikely  t tobewillingtohaveagenciessharedatatoreducetheundercount,andlesswillingtoprovide  ` theirSSN.Atthesametime,theyweremorelikelytoseethecensusasimportantthanwhites.  L  Self-identificationasHispanichadnonsignificantrelationshipstomanyvariables,butthosethat $  weresignificanttendedtoresemblethoseofthebetter-educated. u  Genderhadinconsistenteffectsontheattitudesmeasured.Womenwerelessknowledgeable M  aboutthecensusbutconsidereditmoreimportantthanmendo.Theyweremarginallymore 9  likelytoexpresstrustingovernment.Theyweremoreconcernedaboutprivacyingeneralbut % lesslikelytobelievethatanswerstothecensuswouldbemisused.Andthoughtheywere  significantlymorelikelythanmentofavordatasharingundercertaincircumstances,theywere  lesswillingtoprovidetheirSocialSecuritynumbertofacilitatethis.  Theeffectsofagewerealsosomewhatinconsistent.Olderpeopleweresignificantlymore \ knowledgeableaboutcensususes.Theyhadsignificantlyhigherscoresthanyoungerpeopleon H thegeneralprivacyindex,butweresignificantlymorelikelytobelievethatotheragenciescannot 4 getidentifieddataandlesslikelytoconsiderthecensusaninvasionofprivacy.Nevertheless,   theyweresignificantlylesslikelytotrusttheCensusBureautoupholdconfidentialitylaws(and q  lesslikelytotrustgovernmentingeneral).Theyweresignificantlylesslikelythanyounger ] peopletoapproveofanyformofdatasharing,yettheyweresignificantlymorewillingtoprovide I theirSocialSecuritynumbertofacilitatesuchsharing. 5 Likeolderpeople,thosewithhigherincomeshadsignificantlyhigherscores(greaterconcern)on   theprivacyindexandweresignificantlylesslikelythanthosewithlowerincomestotrustthe   CensusBureautoupholdconfidentialitylaws.Yettheywerealsosignificantlylesslikelythan !  thosewithlowerincomestothinkresponsestothecensuswouldbeusedagainstpeople.Their "l! answerstothedatasharingquestionsareinconsistent. #X"     XX#XX # XX4.THEIMPACTOFNEGATIVEPUBLICITYONPRIVACYCONCERNS#XX #XX %X!$  #XX\#Martin(2000)examinedtheimpactofthreefactorsonprivacyandconfidentialityconcerns 'X#& duringCensus2000:(1)receiptofalongform;(2)mistrustofgovernment;(3)publicityand (D$' commentarythatincreasethepublicssensitivitytoprivacyandconfidentialityissues.During )0%( Census2000,severalprominentfigurescommentedontheperceivedintrusivenessofthelong *&) formandwerewidelyquotedinthepressinlateMarch.Thepublicbecameincreasinglyawareof m+'* 2Oa 2 2  thecontroversy,whichpeakedatjustaboutthetimethecensusformswerebeingmailedtoU.S. e households. Q    `     h   Martin(2001)usedfivecrosssectionalsurveysconductedbyInterSurvey,Inc.underthe ) sponsorshipofseveralprivatefoundationsbetweenMarch3andApril13,2000.Thesurveys  wereselfadministeredusingwebTV;thecumulativeresponserateisabout30percent.Sample   sizesrangedfromabout1900forthefirstsurveyto1300forthefifth.Becauseofnonresponse   andsamplebiases,theInterSurveyresultsprobablyoverestimateawarenessofthecensusand  t underestimateprivacyconcerns.However,theyprobablyreflectlessbiasofthesurveyauspices,  ` sincetheCensusBureauwasnotasponsorofthesurveys.  L  Martincreatedaprivacyscaleconsistingofthreeagreedisagreeitems:(1)Myanswerstothe $  censuscouldbeusedagainstme;(2)TheCensusBureaupromiseofconfidentialitycanbe u  trusted;and(3)Thecensusisaninvasionofprivacy.(Thethreeitemsformanacceptable a  unidimensionalscale;Martin,2001,Table2.)Shethentestedtheeffectofthreehypothesized M  causalvariablesonconcernaboutprivacy:(1)receiptofalongform,(2)awarenessofthe 9  controversyaboutcensuslongformquestions,and(3)mistrustinthegovernmentandgeneral % mistrustofpeople.  Mistrustingovernmentandinpeopleingeneralwashighlypredictiveofthelevelofprivacy  concernaboutthecensus(ibid.,Table3),evenwithdemographicvariablescontrolled.Receipt p ofalongcensusformwaslikewisepredictiveofincreasedprivacyconcerns.Finally,hearing \ aboutthelongformcontroversywasalsostronglyassociatedwithincreasedprivacyconcerns H (ibid).Martinargues,onthebasisofseveralanalyses,thatthisassociationshouldbeinterpreted 4 causally(ibid).Theeffectsofthelongformandhearingaboutthecontroversyareadditive;there   isevidenceofaweak,nonsignificantinteractionbetweenmistrustandhearingaboutthe q  controversy.TheseresultsresemblethosereportedbySingeretal.(2001),whofoundthat ] respondentswhoreportedexposuretonegativeaswellaspositivepublicityaboutthecensushad I significantlyhigherscoresontheprivacyindexandweresignificantlymorelikelytoregardthe 5 censusasaninvasionofprivacy,andlesslikelytobewillingtoprovidetheirSocialSecurity ! Number,thanthosereportingnoexposuretopublicityaboutthecensus(ibid.,Table3.2).   LikeSingeretal.(2001),Martinfoundfewerprivacyconcernsamongthebettereducatedand !  moreconcernsaboutprivacyamongolderpeople.Differencesbyraceandethnicitywere "l! nonsignificantinMartinsdata,whereastheyweresignificantintheSingeretal.(2001)study #X" (cf.Section3,above). $D # Finally,Martinshowsthatrespondentswhoreceivedalongformorwereconcernedabout &"% privacyweremorelikelytoreportreturninganincompletecensusform,orfailingtoreturnitat m'#& all(ibid.,Table4).Thisfindingisreplicatedthroughactualmatchingofsurveyresponseand Y(#' censusreturnsinSingeretal.(2001);seeSection5,below.AnexperimentbyJunn(2001)also E)$( showsthatrespondentsreceivingnegativepriming,intheformofquestionsdesignedtoraise 1*%) privacyconcernsaboutthecensus,werelesslikelytorespondtolongformquestions +&* administeredexperimentallythanwererespondentswhoreceivedpositivepriming,intheformof  ,'+ 3Oa 3 3  reasonsforaskingintrusivequestions,orthoseinacontrolgroup,whoreceivednoprimingat e all. Q  XX 5.0 @ THEEFFECTOFPRIVACYCONFIDENTIALITYCONCERNSON ) CENSUSPARTICIPATION#XX  #  = BecausetheCensusBureaumatchedthe2000SPAresponsestoitsfileofaddressesfortheU.S. =  population,itwaspossibletoexaminetherelationshipbetweenattitudesandbehavior--thatis, )  whetherattitudestowardprivacyandconfidentialitycontinuedtopredictcensusmailreturnsin   Census2000astheyhadinthedecennialcensusadecadeearlier(Singer,Mathiowetz,and    Couper,1993).Attheconclusionoftheinterview,allrespondentswereaskedbyTheGallup   Organizationinterviewersfortheiraddress incasetheCensusBureauwantstodoanyfollow-up t  research.(Iftheaddresshadalreadybeenobtainedpriortothesurvey,theinterviewermerely `  verifieditwiththerespondent. #  8      )Interviewersobtained1695addressesfrom1978respondents, L  or85.7percent.h #  9      ׀Ofthese,theCensusBureaumatched1199,or70.7percent,atthehousehold 8  level.Thus,analysesofcensusreturnsarebasedon1199ofthe1978respondents(60.6percent) $ whoprovidedanaddressthatwasmatchedbytheCensusBureau(Singer,VanHoewykand u Neugebauer,forthcoming). #  10       a Anumberofbeliefsandattitudesdirectlyrelatedtoprivacyandconfidentialityconcerns(Privacy 9 Index;believescensusisaninvasionofprivacy;believescensusinformationmaybeusedfor % lawenforcementpurposes),andothersinferentiallyrelatedtotheseconcerns(willingtohave  agenciessharedatawithCensusBureautoreduceundercount,replacethecensus,oreliminate  thelongform;willingtoprovideSSN),weremeasuredonthe2000survey.Alsomeasured  werepositiveattitudestowardthecensus(obligationtocooperatewiththecensus,importance p  \ @Oa @ @  attachedtothecensus,knowledgeaboutcensususes,andtrustinthefederalgovernment),which e theCensusBureauhypothesizedwouldhaveapositiveeffectonparticipation. Q Singer,VanHoewyk,andNeugebauerpresentthreeseparatetestsoftheeffectofattitudesabout ) privacyandconfidentialityonbehavior.First,theyestimatetheeffectsoftheseattitudeson  willingnesstoprovideanaddresstotheGallupinterviewer.Second,theyestimatetheeffectof   privacyandconfidentialityconcernsonrespondentsreturnoftheircensusform,correcting   theseestimatesforattrition(duetofailuretoprovideanaddressandfailuretomatchtheaddress)  t inordertocompensatetosomeextentforthelowmatchrate.Third,toavoidsomeambiguities  ` inthisanalysis,theyrepeatitforone-personhouseholds.Onlythesecondandthirdarediscussed  L  here.  8   Amongtheattitudinalvariables,thebeliefthatthecensusmaybemisusedforlawenforcement u  purposes,asmeasuredbyanindexbasedonresponsestothreeseparatequestions,wasa a  significantnegativepredictorofreturningthecensusform.Thus,likeSinger,Mathiowetz,and M  Couper(1993),theauthorsfoundthatconcernsaboutthepossibilityofconfidentialitybreaches 9  arenegativepredictorsofcooperationwiththecensus.Thosewhofavoreddatasharingtopermit % replacingthetraditionalcensuswithadministrativerecordswerealsomarginallylesslikelyto  returntheircensusform.Ontheotherhand,agreeingthateveryonehasanobligationto  cooperatewiththecensushadasignificantpositiveeffectoncensusreturns.Concernsabout  privacyandconfidentialitywereestimatedtoexplain1.19percentofthevarianceincensusmail p returns,comparedwith1.3percentin1990.Thus,theeffectoftheseconcernsonmailreturnsis \ apparentlyconsistentfrom1990to2000. H Anotherwayoflookingattheeffectofconfidentialityconcernsistolookattherelationship   betweenbeliefsthatthecensusmaybemisusedforlawenforcementpurposesandreturnofthe q  censusformbymail.Ofthe478respondents(39.6percentofthematchedsample)whobelieved ] thatcensusdataareusedfornoneofthethreepurposes(identifyingillegalaliens,keepingtrack I oftroublemakers,andusingcensusanswersagainstrespondents),86.2percentreturnedtheir 5 censusformbymail.Thepercentagedroppedto80.5percentamongthosewhoendorsedoneof ! thethreeitems(N=303),to76.1percentamongthosewhoendorsedtwoitems(N=255),andto   73.7percentamongthe171respondentswhoendorsedallthreeitems.In1990,censusreturn   ratesdeclinedfrom77.8percentto54.8percentonasimilar,butnotidentical,indexof !  confidentialityconcerns.Thegenerallyhigherreturnratesin2000reflectthefactthatfora "l! varietyofreasons,the2000sampleincludedmorecompliantrespondentsthanthe1990sample #X" did.Nevertheless,concernsaboutconfidentialityaffectbehaviorinbothsamples.Theeffectin $D # 2000appearstobelinear,whereastheeffectin1990appearedonlyamongthosebelowthe %0!$ midpointontheconfidentialityindex. &"% Theresultsreportedintheparagraphabovearebivariaterelationships.Controllingforallthe Y(#' othervariablesincludedinthemultivariatemodelestimatedbySinger,VanHoewyk,and E)$( Neugebauerreducesthepercentagespreadbyahalfapercentagepoint.Giventhecostof 1*%) retrievingcensusinformationnotreturnedbymail,eventhisreductioninthelikelihoodof +&* returningthecensusformissubstantial.  ,'+ 6W 6e 6  Therearetwosourcesofambiguityinthedataabouttheeffectofprivacyandconfidentiality Q concernsoncensusmailreturns.OneisthatahouseholdmayhavemovedbetweenCensusDay = (April1)andthedateoftheinterview,whichrangedfromafewdaystothreemonthslater,and ) thismayhaveattenuatedtherelationshipbetweenattitudesandbehaviorasmeasuredinthe2000  study. #  11      ׀Anadditionalsourceofambiguityisthatexceptinone-personhouseholds,the   individualwhoseattitudesweremeasuredonthesurveywasnotnecessarilythesamepersonwho   hadreturnedthecensusform.Respondentswereselectedatrandomfromhouseholdmembers,  t andwerenotaskedwhethertheyhadreturnedthecensusformafewdaysorweeksearlier.  `   Inordertotrytoremovethissecondsourceofambiguity,theauthorsexaminedtherelationship  8  betweenattitudesandbehaviorseparatelyinone-personhouseholds,wheretherespondentand $  thepersonreturningorfailingtoreturntheformwouldalmostalwaysbethesame.Comparing u  theresultswiththoseinmultiple-personhouseholds,theyfound,asexpected,thatattitudesofall a  kindsaccountedforamuchlargershareofvarianceinone-personthaninmultiple-person M  households--7.4percent,comparedwith3.1percent.Privacyattitudesaccountedfor4.5percent 9  ofthevarianceinone-personhouseholds,comparedwithonly1.1percentinmultiple-person % households.Thus,theauthorsarguethatthefindingsconcerningtheeffectofprivacyand  confidentialityconcernsonreturnofthecensusformwouldhavebeenevenstrongerhadthey  beenableinallcasestointerviewthepersonwhoactuallyreturned(orwasresponsiblefor  returning)thecensusformforthehousehold. p   XX  6.PUBLICPERCEPTIONSOFAGENCYCONFIDENTIALITY H PRACTICES#XX #  \    Thereisabundantevidence,datingatleastto1979,thatpublicperceptionsofagencypractices \ withrespecttoconfidentialityareinaccurate(seeSection1ofthisreport).Inthefirstplace,most H people,whengivenanopportunity,claimnottoknowwhatCensusBureaupracticeswithrespect 4 toconfidentialityare.Second,amongthosewhosaytheydoknow,themajoritybelievethat   otheragenciescangainaccesstothedata.Althoughtherewasincreasedaccuracyinpublic q  perceptionsaboutagencypracticesbetween1999and2000,itisnotatallclearthatthesegainsin ]  accuracywillbemaintainedoncetheeffectsoftheextensiveandintensivepublicrelations I! campaignconnectedtothedecennialcensushavefaded. 5"  ЇTheseperceptionsofgovernmentagencypracticesarealsoexemplifiedin PrivacySchemasand e DataCollection:AnEthnographicAccount,carriedoutbyGerberaspartoftheCensus2000 Q TestingandExperimentationProgram.Gerberandhercolleaguesinterviewed120peoplefrom = diversebackgroundsintheDCarea,usingsemi-structuredresearchprotocols(ibid.,p.ii).They ) foundthatrespondents(manyofthemmembersofminoritygroups)believedthatinformationis  freelysharedbetweengovernmentagencies,despiteassurancesofconfidentiality.Asaresult,if   theyhavesomethingtohide,theyarereluctanttoprovideinformationtoanygovernmentagency   (ibid.,pp.iii,12-14).  t  XX  0 @ @ 7. @ THEEFFECTOFAREQUESTFORSOCIALSECURITYNUMBERS#XX #   r  Formorethanadozenyears,theCensusBureauhasbeenexploringtheuseofadministrative r  recordsinordertoimprovecoverageinthedecennialcensusortoreducetheburdenof ^  respondingbyobtainingsomeinformationfromrecordsthatotherwisewouldberequestedonthe J  censuslongform.InCensus2000,theCensusBureausponsoredresearchdesignedtoassessthe 6  effectofarequestforSocialSecurityNumbers(SSNs)on(a)returnratetothecensus,(b)item " nonresponse,and(c)accuracyofresponse.Inaddition,theexperimentwasdesigned(d)to s assesstheeffectofageneralvs.aspecificnotificationthatadministrativerecordsmightbe _ linkedwithcensusrecords. Generalnotificationinformedthehouseholdthatcensusdatamight K belinkedwithdatafromotherfederalagencies,whereas specificnotificationnamedthe 7 agencieswhosedatamightbesoughtforlinking.Theexperimentwascarriedoutinthecontext # ofCensus2000.    PastresearchhadindicatedtwodifferentresponsepatternstoSSNrequests.Whenaskedinthe  contextofafocusgroup,largemajoritiesreactnegativelytotheprospectofsucharequest n (Singeretal.,1992).Inresponsetoahypotheticalquestiononasurvey,asubstantialand Z growingminorityindicatetheywouldopposesucharequest(Singer,2001).Butwhen F respondentswereactuallyaskedfortheirSSNina1992experiment,therequestgenerateda 2 muchsmallerthanexpected(3.4percent)declineinresponserates,andanadditional17orso  percentagepointincreaseinitemnonresponse(Dillman,Sinclair,andClark,1993).Therehad o  beennopriorexperimentalresearchonnotificationofadministrativerecorduse,andqualitative [  researchhadyieldedonlyambiguousclues(AguirreInternational,1995). G!   TheCensus2000SocialSecurityNumber,PrivacyAttitudes,andNotification(SPAN) #! experimentwasdesignedtoclarifyallthesequestions.Theexperimentcreatedtenpanels,three  $" usingthelongformandseventheshortform,withhalftheformsmailedtoHighCoverageand $ # halftoLowCoverageAreas(Guarino,Hill,andWoltman,2001,p.4).Themailoutforeach %~!$ panelwasalittleover5200;about10percentwereundeliverableandwereexcludedfromthe &j"% denominatorincalculatingresponserates(ibid.,pp.6-7). 'V#&   ThefindingsfromtheSPANexperimentareconsistentwithearlierresearchonactualSSN ).%( requests.AskingforaSSNforoneorallmembersofthehouseholdresultsinasmall, *&) significantdecreaseinmailresponsetoCensus2000.Whentherequestisforallhousehold k+'* members,itresultsinadeclineof2.1percentinHighCoverageAreas(HCAs)and2.7inLow W,'+ *Oa *e *  CoverageAreas(LCAs)(ibid.,p.17).Thesetwofiguresarenotstatisticallydifferentfromeach e other,andarecomparabletothe3.4percentdeclineobservedin1992.(LowCoverageAreas Q containalargeproportionofthecountrysBlackandHispanicpopulationsaswellasrenter = occupiedhousingunits.)TheHCAstratumcomprisedabout81percentofthetotalDecennial ) MasterAddressFileasofSeptember9,1999(ibid.,p.5).    Thefindingswithrespecttonotificationofadministrativerecorduseindicatethatsuch   notificationresultsinanadditionalsmallbutsignificantdecreaseinresponserates(ibid.,Table  t 3.).LookingattheinteractionbetweennotificationandtherequestforSSNsuggeststhatspecific  ` notificationcoupledwithsucharequestresultsinasignificantdeclineinreturnrates,whereasa  L  generalnotificationcoupledwithsucharequestdoesnot(ibid.).  8    Itemnonresponsewasdefinedasthelikelihoodofahouseholdhavinganymissingdataamong u  the100percentpersonitemsinadditiontohouseholdtenure.Thus,thisdataqualitymeasure a  doesnotspecificallyaddresstheeffectofanSSNrequestonprovidingtheSSNitself.The M  requestforanSSNforPerson1didnotresultinasignificantincreaseinitemnonresponseonthe 9  censusform,whereastherequestforSSNsforallhouseholdmembersdidresultinsuchan % increase.NotificationinthepresenceofanSSNrequestdidnotfurtherincreaseitem  nonresponse(ibid.,Table4).    WithrespectspecificallytotheSSNitem,theresultsarehighlycomparabletothosebyBates p (1992).Some15.5percentofSSNsaremissingforPerson1whenarequestismadeforPerson \ 1only,withincreasingpercentagesmissingforPersons2through6whenSSNsarerequestedfor H allmembersofthehousehold(Guarino,Hill,andWoltman,2001,Table5).Theimplicationis 4 thatthosenumbersaremissingnotonlybecauseofrefusal,butalsobecausethepersonfillingout   thecensusformisignorantoftheSSNsofotherhouseholdmembers.Interestinglyenough, q  nonresponsetotheSSNitemdecreasedforPerson1inthepresenceofspecificorgeneral ] notification;suchnotificationhadlittle,ifany,effectonnonresponsetotherequestedSSNsfor I otherhouseholdmembers(ibid.,p.22andTable7).Thisfindingsupportstheinterpretationthat 5 nonresponsetotherequestforonesownSSNsignifiesrefusal,whereasnonresponsetothe ! requestforothersSSNsignifiesbothrefusalandignorance.Itfurthersuggeststhatthe   notificationstatementmayhaveprovidedjustificationforprovidingtheSSNnumberrequested.   Thus,whereasspecificnotificationinthepresenceofanSSNrequestdiscouragedreturnofthe !  censusform,specificaswellasgeneralnotificationencouragedsupplyingtheSSNamongthose "l! whodidreturntheform. #X"   TheCensusBureausubsequentlyvalidatedtheSSNsgivenbycomparingthemtotheCensus %0!$ NumericalIdentification(Numident)File. #  12      ׀Theresultsofthatexerciseshowedthat94.77 &"% percentofallthoseSSNsgivenwereaccurate(Brudvig,2003,p.iv).Therewasasmallbut m'#& 7N 7 7  statisticallysignificantdifferencebetweenlowandhighcoverageareas"95.15percentwere e accurateinHCAareas,comparedwith92.8percentinLCAareas.ForPerson1,theaccuracyrate Q isevenhigher,rangingfrom96.01to96.93percentdependingontheexperimentalcondition. = Neitherthetypeofnotification,norrequestinganSSNforPerson1onlyorforallpersonsinthe ) household,affectstheaccuracyofthereportforPerson1.However,accuracyshowsadeclinein  eachpanelfromPerson2throughPerson6.Thevalidationratesfoundinthecurrentstudyare   verysimilartothosefoundintheSimplifiedQuestionnaireTestin1992(ibid.,pp.iv-v).     TheCensusBureauhadplannedvariousotheranalysesofthecostsandbenefitsofusingtheSSN  ` tolinkadministrativeandcensusfiles.Theseanalyseswerenotcarriedoutbecauseofresource  L  constraints.Wereturntoconsiderationoftheseanalysesinthesectiononrecommendations.  8    XX  8.0 @ THEROLEOFTHEPARTNERSHIPPROGRAMINPRIVACY u  ATTITUDES#XX #=#  $  B=TheSurveyofPartners(WestatandPoyer,2002)askedPartnersintheCensushowhelpfulthe $ PartnershippublicrelationsprogrammaterialsprovidedbytheCensusBureauwereinachieving u eachofsixstatedgoals.Theratingsshowedthatmaterialsrelatedtogoalsofbasiceducation a aboutthecensus--understandingthepurposeofCensus2000andexplainingitsimportance-- M receivedhighestratings(ibid.,p.26).Andindeed,theSurveysofPrivacyAttitudesshowed 9 significantgainsinknowledgeandsignificantincreasesinimportanceattachedtothecensus % between1999and2000(Singeretal.,2001,pp.59-60).Materialswereratedaslesshelpfulfor  goalsthatwererelatedtoattitudesoftrustinthepromiseofconfidentialityandtocreatinga  senseofcivicresponsibilityforbeingcounted(WestatandPoyer,p.26).Indeed,materials  relatedtothegoalofinstillingtrustintheCensusBureauspromiseofconfidentialityweremost p likelytoberatedasnothelpful(13percent),leastlikelytoberatedveryhelpful(29percent),and \ receivedthehighestpercentageofDontKnowresponses(31percent)(ibid.,p.26).TheSurveys H ofPrivacyAttitudesshowednosignificantgainintrustbetween1999and2000,whenthe 4 Censusoutreachprogramwasinfullswing(Singeretal.,2001,p.62).Thesefindingssuggest   thatincreasingtrustintheCensusBureauislikelytobeafarmoredifficultchallengethan q  simplyincreasingknowledgeaboutthecensus,butitisnecessaryifcooperationwiththecensus ]  istobeimproved. I!  XX   9.0 @ ATTITUDESANDBEHAVIOR#XX tE#  I#! EEvidenceontherelevanceoftheprivacyattitude-behaviorrelationshipfortheCensusBureau I% # comesfromtwosources.Inthefirstplace,theanalysesreportedearlier(seeSection5)ofthe 5&!$ effectsofprivacyattitudesonreturnofthecensusformindicatequiteclearlythatthosewho !'"% expressmoreconcernaboutprivacyandconfidentialityarelesslikelytoprovidetheiraddress  (#& andlesslikelytoreturntheircensusform,butthisrelationshipisquitesmall,accounting,inthe ($' caseofcensusreturns,forlessthan2percentofthevariance. )%(    ` Thesecondtestoftherelationbetweenattitudesandbehaviorcomesfromcomparisonof +X'* answersexpressedinvariousvenuestowardthehypotheticalquestionofwhetherrespondents ,D(+ .e . .  wouldbewillingtoprovidetheirSSNtotheCensusBureau,andtheactualprovisionofthose e numbersintheSPANexperiment. Q   Unliketheexaminationofprivacy/confidentialityattitudesandcensusreturns,attitudesand ) behaviorswithrespecttoSSNsweremeasuredondifferentsamplesofindividuals.Hence,there  isnoquestionofpredictingbehaviorfromattitudes.However,theobjectoftheattitudeandthe   behaviorisvirtuallyidentical--i.e.,willingnesstoprovideonesSSNtofacilitateCensusBureau   useofothergovernmentrecords.Hence,itispertinenttoaskwhethertheattitudinaland  t behavioralmeasuresofwillingnesstoprovideonesSSNtotheCensusBureauwouldleadone  ` tothesameconclusion.  L    Singeretal.(2001)reportthatthepercentageofthosewhosaidtheywerewillingtoprovide $  theirSSNtotheCensusBureaudeclinedfrom68.3percentin1996to55.9percentin2000 u  (Table2.45).IntheSPANexperiment(seeSection7,thisreport),approximately3percentfailed a  toreturntheircensusformbecauseofarequestforSSNandanadditional15.5percentfailedto M  providetheirSSNforPerson1iftheydidreturntheform.(NonresponsetotheSSNrequest 9  increasedforPersons2-6ontheform,suggestingthatignoranceaswellasunwillingnessisa % factorforthesepersons.)Inaddition,between5and7percentofSSNnumbersforPerson1were  inaccurate(Section7).Thus,thisdirecttestofhowcloselyexpressedunwillingnesstoprovide  onesSSNcorrespondswiththenumberwhofailtoprovidetheirSSNwhenaskedtodoso  suggeststhatapproximatelyhalfofthosesayingtheywouldbeunwillingtoprovidetheirSSNto p theCensusBureauwouldactuallyfailtoprovideanaccuratenumberiftheyweredirectlyasked \ todoso.Thisisinfactaverysubstantialrelationshipbetweenanattitudeexpressedinone H contextandbehaviorobservedinanother,andthedifferencesbetweenthetwocontextsaresuch 4 astomaketheincreaseinobservedcomplianceplausible.Itshouldbenotedonceagainthatthis   comparisondoesnotinvolvethesameindividuals.However,itdoesinvolveacomparison q  betweentwosamplesdrawnfromthesamepopulationataboutthesamepointintime. ]   ThequestionhasbeenraisedwhetheraskingeveryoneforanSSNinthecontextofthedecennial 5 censuswouldfacilitateresponseorincreaseresistance.Thisquestioncannotbeansweredinthe ! abstract.ExperiencewithCensus2000suggeststhatiftherequestcomestotheattentionof   influentialeliteswhoopposeit,compliancemightindeedsuffer.Thiswasthecasewith   questionsonthelongforminCensus2000,whichgeneratedwidelyreportedunfavorable !  publicityinthedaysimmediatelysurroundingdistributionoftheCensus2000forms.Analysis "l! ofthosereportingexposuretothisunfavorablepublicitysuggeststhattherewasindeeda #X" significantnegativeimpactonattitudes(Singeretal.,2001,pp.69-74;Martin,2001),including $D # asignificantnegativeeffectonexpressedwillingnesstoprovideonesSSN.However,becauseof %0!$ thenonexperimentaldesign,selectiveexposureisanalternativeexplanationofthefindings. &"%   XX  10.0 @ THEROLEOFINFORMEDCONSENT#XX OY#  Y(#' nYThequestionisoftenraisedwhetherprovidingrespondentsinformationaboutthecontentofa Y*%) surveyaheadoftimeislikelytoincreaseorreducetheirwillingnesstoparticipateinit.The E+&* questioncannot,ofcourse,beansweredinthatform.Forexample,whileanexperimentby 1,'+ Singer(1978)showsthatprovidingrespondentssomewhatmoreinformationaboutthesensitive -(, 8Oa 8 8  contentofasurveydidnotreducetheresponserateorincreaserefusals,anexperimentby e Groves,Presser,andDipko(2000)indicatesthatrespondentswho,byvirtueoftheirmembership Q incertainorganizations,mightbeexpectedtobemoreinterestedinaparticulartopicwereinfact = morelikelytorespondwhentheintroductionmentionedthattopic.Itisalsopossiblethat ) respondentswhoholdverynegativeattitudesaboutaparticulartopicmayrefusetoparticipatein  asurveyaboutthattopic,ortheymaybesensitizedbyareferencetothetopicintheintroduction   torefusetoanswercertainquestions(Singer,1978).   TheSocialSecurityNotificationexperimentindicatesthatinformingrespondentsthattheir  ` censusformmightbelinkedtoothergovernmentrecordshadasmallbutsignificantnegative  L  effectonreturnsofthecensusformitself(seeSection6above).However,amongthosewhodid  8  returntheform,notificationhadapositiveeffectonthelikelihoodofrespondingtotheSocial $  SecurityNumberquestion(Section6).NotificationhadnoimpactonwhethertheSSNreported u  wasaccurate.Thus,asanempiricalmatter,thevalueofinformingrespondentsaboutlinkage a  aheadoftimemaydependonwhethertheinterestisprimarilyinreturnoftheentireformorin M  answerstothequestionaboutSSN.Asanethicalmatter,however,somewouldarguethatthere 9  isanobligationtoinformrespondentsabouttheproposedlinkageinanycase. %   Inherethnographicexplorationofthemeaningofprivacyandconfidentialityconcernsandthe  relevanceoftheseconcernsforreturningthecensusform,Gerber(2002)pointsoutthat  respondentsformexpectationsofwhatquestionsarelegitimateforasponsortoask,basedon p theirunderstandingofthenatureandpurposeofthesurveyandthesponsoringorganization \ (ibid.,p.iii).Shethereforerecommendsthatsponsorsprovidegood,understandableexplanations H ofwhythesedataareneededandhowtheywillbeused(ibid.,p.iv).Thisrecommendation 4 wouldclearlyseemtoapplytotheCensusBureausrequestforSSNs.MartinsASApaper   (2001)alsoaddressestheseissues,andincludesinformationaboutthenatureofrespondents q  objectionstolongformquestionsandaboutthekindofinformationtheysaytheywant. ]    `     h  XX  11.0 @ SUMMARYOFFINDINGS#XX Rg# 5 qg   `    XX11.10  Trendsinattitudes,1995-2000#XXh# 5 (#(# Ingeneral,knowledgeaboutCensusBureauconfidentialitypracticesincreasedbetween1995and "  2000.Evenin2000,however,mostrespondentseitherdidnotknowwhattheCensusBureaus  #! practicesandlegalobligationswere,orrespondedthatdataweresharedwithothers. #"   Duringthissameperiodoftime,thepercentagesayingtheywouldbebothered alotiftheir %j!$ censusdataweresharedwithanyoneoutsidetheCensusBureauincreasedsignificantly,and &V"% approvalofdatasharingforallthreeofthepurposesaskedabout(toreducetheundercount,to 'B#& eliminatethecensus,andtoreplacethelongform)declined.Withtheexceptionofsupportfor (.$' datasharingtoreducetheundercount,whichstabilizedbetween1999and2000,thesetrends )%( appeartobelinear.ExpressedwillingnesstoprovideonesSocialSecuritynumberalsodeclined k*&) between1996and1999,withnofurtherchangein2000. W+&* ЇIncreaseddisapprovalofdatasharingwasnotparalleledeitherbyincreasingdistrustoftheuses e towhichcensusdatamightbeput,orbyincreasingconcernsaboutprivacyingeneral,orby Q decliningtrustingovernmentorintheCensusBureautokeepdataconfidential.Threequestions = aboutpossiblemisuseofcensusdataallshowedadeclineindistrustbetween1999and2000, ) withtwoofthethreestatisticallysignificant.Thequestionaskingwhetherpeopletrustthe  CensusBureautokeepdataconfidential(iftheycorrectlyperceivedthattherewerelaws   governingconfidentiality)showednosignificantchange.Thequestionaskingwhetherthe   censusshortformisaninvasionofprivacyshowedasmallsignificantdeclinebetween1995and  t 2000,andotherquestionsaskingaboutgeneralprivacyconcernsforthemostpartshowedno  ` consistenttrends.Finally,peoplestrustin thegovernmentinWashingtonshowedasmall,  L  significantincreasebetween1996and2000afterdecliningfrom1995to1996.  8   XX11.20  TheeffectofCensusBureaupublicrelationsactivitiesonbeliefsabout u  confidentiality#XXq#s (#(#  Althoughtherewasnochangebetween1999and2000inthepercentage--afifthofthe ]  population--whoconsideredthecensusaninvasionofprivacy,therewasasignificantdeclinein I thebeliefthatcensusdatawerelikelytobemisused,andasignificantincreaseinthepercentage 5 ofthoseperceiving,correctly,thatothergovernmentagenciescouldnotgetcensusdataidentified ! bynameandaddress.ThepercentageofthosewhoknewthattheCensusBureauisrequiredby   lawtoprotecttheconfidentialityofthedataitcollects(orforbiddenbylawtodiscloseit)also  increasedsignificantly.Thesechangesare,inalllikelihood,attributabletopublicityaboutthe  censuscommissionedorstimulatedbytheCensusBureau,sinceinmostcasestheyreverseor l dramaticallyacceleratetrendsapparentfrom1995to1999. X Atthesametime,anumberofrelatedquestionsshowednosignificantchangebetween1999and 0 2000,eventhoughthemessagesdisseminatedbytheCensusBureaumighthavebeenexpectedto  haveanimpactonresponsestoatleastsomeofthem.First,andperhapsmostimportant,there m wasnosignificantincreaseinthepercentageofthosewhosaidtheybelievethegovernment Y protectstheconfidentialityofthedata.(Giventheotherfindingscitedhere,weareinclinedto E interprettheabsenceofchangeinresponsestothisquestionassignifyingthatittappedan 1  elementoftrustratherthanawarenessorknowledgeaboutthelaw.)Norwasthereasignificant ! increaseinthepercentageofthosesayingtheytrusttheCensusBureautokeepdataconfidential.  "  XX 11.30  Attitudesandbehavior#XXrz# #"(#(# Aswehaveseen,therelationshipbetweenattitudesandbehaviorvariesdependingonhowclose %z!$ theconceptualrelationshipisbetweenthetwo.Respondentsconcernsaboutconfidentialityand &f"% privacypredicttheirreturnofthecensusform.Therelationshiptocensusreturnsisstatistically 'R#& significant,andthoughsmall,itisofthesameorderofmagnitudeasthatmeasuredinthe1990 (>$' census(Singer,Mathiowetz,andCouper,1993).Obviously,thereisnoone-for-onerelationship )*%( betweenconcernsaboutconfidentialityandwillingnesstoreturnthecensusform;thelatteris {*&) motivatedbyotherattitudesandconcerns!e.g.,howimportanttherespondentconsidersthe g+'* 9Oa 9 9  census,concernaboutbreakingthelaw,desiretoobtainafairshareofgovernment e resources--andtheseattenuatetherelationshipbetweenprivacy/confidentialityconcernsand Q censusreturns.Therelationshipisalsoattenuatedbyerrorinthemeasurementofbothattitudes = andbehavior.Lookedatanotherway,however,therelationshipissubstantial.Thedifferencein ) censusreturnsbetweenthosewhoendorsenoneofthethreebeliefsthatthecensusmaybe  misusedforlawenforcementpurposesandthosewhoendorseallthreeofthosebeliefsis12.5   percentagepoints.     Whentheobjectoftheattitudeandthebehavioraremorecloselyrelatedtooneanother,the  ` conclusionsthatwouldbedrawnfromattitudinalandbehavioraldataareeasiertocompare.  L  Some45percentofrespondentstothe1999and2000surveyssaidtheywouldnotbewillingto  8  providetheirSSNtotheCensusBureautofacilitatedatalinkage;inanexperimentaltestofsuch $  willingness,some22percentofsubjectsfailedtoprovideanaccurateSSNforPerson1onthe u  censusform.Thus,onemightconcludethatabouthalfofthoseexpressingreservationsabout a  providingaSocialSecurityNumberwouldactuallyfailtodosoifrequestedbytheCensus M  Bureau. 9   XX11.40  WillingnesstoprovideSSNs#XX# (#(# TheSPANexperimentdemonstratesthat(a)largepercentagesofthepopulationwillprovide  theirSSNtotheCensusBureauifaskedtodosoonthecensusform;(b)therequestreducesthe  responseratebylessthan3percentagepoints;(c)nonresponsetotheSSNitemtotals15.5 n percentforPerson1andmoreforsubsequentpersonsinthehousehold;(d)between93and95 Z percentoftheSSNsprovidedareaccurate;and(e)notificationofrecordlinkagehasasmallbut F significantnegativeeffectontheresponseratebutasmallpositiveeffectonrespondingtothe 2 SSNitem. `      XX  12.0 @ CONCLUSIONSANDRECOMMENDATIONSFORFUTURE [ RESEARCH#XX  # o  ,XX12.10  Conclusions#XXو#    o (#(# Inthissection,Ioutlinetheconclusionsthatcanbedrawnonthebasisoftheresearchcarried Y"  outundertheCensusBureausprivacyinitiative,keepinginmindthecaveatsoutlinedatthe E#! beginningofthisreport. 1$"   1.Exceptintheperiodsurroundingthedecennialcensus,whenpublicityaboutthe  &!$ censuswasatitsheight,knowledgeandbeliefsabouttheCensusBureauandattitudestoward &"% privacyandconfidentialityshowedonlysmallyear-to-yearchangesbetween1995and2000. '|#& Nevertheless,thereappearstobeatrendtowardincreasingconcernaboutthesharingof )T%( confidentialdata. *@&)  +,'* =e = =    2.Knowledge,beliefs,andattitudeswereallsignificantlyrelatedtoself-reported e exposuretopositiveaswellasnegativepublicityaboutthecensus.However,theSPAfoundno Q directeffectofself-reportedexposureoncensusreturns.Knowledgeandopinionsseemedmuch = moreamenabletochangeasaresultofthepublicitycampaignthantrust. )   3.Attitudesaboutprivacyandconfidentialityvarybydemographiccharacteristics,with   nonwhitessignificantlymoreconcernedaboutprivacythanwhites,lesslikelytobelievethe   CensusBureauprotectsconfidentiality;lesslikelytobewillingtohaveagenciessharedata;and  t lesswillingtoprovidetheirSSN.  `   4.Attitudesaboutconfidentialityandprivacyarereliableandsignificantpredictorsof  8  behavior.Theypredictedrespondentsreturnofthecensusformin2000aswellasin1990,with $  concernaboutthepossiblemisuseofcensusdataforlawenforcementpurposesaccountingfora u  substantialdeclineincensusmailreturns. a    5.Approvalofdatasharingamongfederalagencies,aswellasexpressedwillingnessto 9  provideonesSocialSecuritynumbertofacilitatesuchsharing,declinedbetween1995and2000. %   6.Atthesametime,theimpactofarequestforSSNonresponserateswasmuchsmaller  thanwouldbepredictedfromtheattitudesexpressed,accountingforadeclineinresponserates  oflessthan3percentagepoints.WhennonresponsetotheSSNitemandinaccuracyinSSN p numbersareaddedtofailuretomailbackthecensusform,however,theimpactwaslarger, \ amountingtosome22percentofthesample.Thus,whethertorequestaSSNornotdependson H whethertheprimarygoalistomatchcensusreturnstootherrecords,ortominimizethecostof 4 thebasicenumeration.     7.EthnographicworkinconnectionwithCensus2000andfocusgroupsinPuertoRico ] areinaccordwiththeconclusionsreachedonthebasisofsurveysandexperiments.Respondents I andparticipantsexpressedconcernsaboutprivacyandconfidentialityandmentionedtheseas 5 reasonsforreluctanceinsharinginformation. ! Ѐ  8.ThereissupportbothfromtheethnographicinterviewsandfromtheNotificationpart   oftheSPANexperimentthatexplainingwhyinformationisrequestedmayhelpinobtainingit. !  Eventhoughnotificationhadasmallbutsignificantnegativeimpactonresponserates,it "l! increasedresponsetotheSSNitem. #X"  XX12.20  Recommendations#XXϘ# %0!$(#(# Giventhesegeneralconclusions,wemakethefollowingrecommendationsforfutureresearchin '#& thisareabytheCensusBureau: k($'   1.Continuetomonitortrendsinknowledge,beliefs,andattitudes.Giventhesmallyear C*%) toyearchangesobservedtodate,theintervalbetweensurveyscouldprobablybeincreasedto /+&* threeorfouryears.Suchsurveysareneededtodocumenttheeffectofrecenteventson ,'+ knowledgeandbeliefsrelevanttothecensus. -(, >Oa > >    Supplementingthecrosssectionalsurveyswithsomepanelcomponentswouldbeuseful e inunderstandingwhatcausesindividuallevelchange.Inaddition,itmightbeuseful,and Q economical,toaddasubsetofkeyquestionstoongoinghighqualitysurveys(e.g.,theGeneral = SocialSurveyortheSurveyofConsumerAttitudes)atmorefrequentintervals.Forbothofthese ) activities,replicationofquestionsandsurveyproceduresisessentialiftheintentistomonitor  changeinattitudes.     2.Wellbeforethenextcensus,design,conduct,andanalyzesmall-scaleresearchthat  t developsandthentestsmoreeffectivewaysofcommunicatingtheCensusBureaus  ` confidentialitypracticestothegeneralpublic.Itisclearfromboththeethnographicandsurvey  L  researchreviewedabovethatthepublicdoesnotunderstandorbelievetheconfidentiality  8  assurancesprovidedbytheCensusBureau,andthattheirbeliefshaveconsequencesforbehavior. $  Aprogramofqualitativeresearch,followedbysmallscalelaboratoryexperiments,is u  recommended.Theeffectivenessofthemessagesdevelopedinthiswayshouldthenbetestedin a  fieldexperiments. M    3.ConductqualitativeresearchonimpedimentstotrustintheCensusBureauandinthe % governmentmoregenerally,andonwaysinwhichfeelingsoftrustmightbeenhanced.Research  ofthiskindmaybeespeciallyusefulamonggroupswhoarelesslikelytocooperatewiththe  CensusBureau.Becausetrust,ratherthanknowledge,maywellbecrucialtothepublics  cooperationwiththecensus,thisresearchisespeciallyimportant.Atthesametime,such p researchislikelytobedifficulttocarryout,anditisnotclearthatmuchcanbedonebythe \ CensusBureautochangelevelsoftrust.Researchbyeconomistsandpsychologistsondecision H makingunderconditionsofuncertainty,includingrecentresearchbyneuroscientists,shouldbe 4 reviewedforitspossiblecontributiontotheactivitiesinRecommendations2and3.     4.Becauseattitudestowardprivacyandconfidentialityaccountforonlyasmallportion ] ofthevarianceincensusmailreturns,designandconductresearchtoidentifyandreduceother I barrierstoresponse.Whileitisclearfromalltheresearchcarriedoutunderthisprogramthat 5 concernsaboutprivacyandconfidentialityaffectrespondentscooperation,itisalsoclearthat ! suchconcernsexplainonlyasmallpartofthevariationinbehavior.Thus,itisimportanttolook   for,andaffect,otherpotentialbarrierstoresponse,suchasmotivationandcapacity.       XX   (#& <Oa?Oa1OaAcknowledgments#XX `#XX e T #XX#IwouldliketothankRandallJ.Neugebauerforhisadvice,help,andencouragementonthe1999 w and2000SurveysofPrivacyAttitudes;LindaBrudvigforcommissioningtheprivacytopic c report;andPatDoyleandhercolleaguesforinvitingmetowriteachapteronpublicperceptions O ofconfidentialityfortheirbookonconfidentialityanddataaccess(2001).Thanksarealsodueto ;  mycolleaguesatTheGallupOrganizationandtheSurveyResearchCenterattheUniversityof '  Michigan,inparticularRogerTourangeauandDarbyMillerSteigerforhelpwiththedesignand   executionofthesurveysandJohnVanHoewykandTrivelloreRaghunathanforhelpwithdata   analysis.Inadditiontothesurveysonprivacyattitudes,theexcellentresearchreportsbyJennifer    Guarino,JoanHill,andHenryWoltman;byLindaBrudvig;bySusanBerkowitzandLinda  r  Brudvig;byEleanorGerber;andbyElizabethMartinformthebasisforthistopicreporton ^  privacy.  J     `    XX c+&' <Oa < <  References#XX 0#  e $XXXXAguirreInternational.1995. 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