FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

THURSDAY, JANUARY 14, 2010, AT 8:30 A.M. EST


Timothy Winters / Ian Thomas                                                                                                                                                                                            CB10-04
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


DECEMBER 2009

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $353.0 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 5.4 percent (±0.5%) above December 2008. Total sales for the 12 months of 2009 were down 6.2 percent (±0.2%) from 2008. Total sales for the October through December 2009 period were up 1.9 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2009 percent change was revised from +1.3 percent (±0.5%) to +1.8 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were down 0.2 percent (±0.5%)* from November 2009, but 5.9 percent (±0.5%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 33.6 percent (±1.5%) from December 2008 and nonstore retailers sales were up 10.3 percent (±1.7%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for January is scheduled to be released February 11, 2010 at 8:30 a.m. EST.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2009

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Dec(3) Nov Oct Dec Nov Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 352,985 353,951 347,641 335,016 345,175 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 293,545 294,025 288,445 278,928 288,233 Retail ....................................... 315,041 315,789 309,821 297,453 307,210 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 94,795 94,335 92,358 94,499 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 59,440 59,926 59,196 56,088 56,942 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 53,173 53,659 52,842 49,428 50,254 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,764 7,743 7,687 8,069 8,212 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,449 8,674 8,435 8,506 9,064 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,809 6,612 6,644 7,190 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,865 1,823 1,862 1,874 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 23,343 23,427 22,908 24,784 25,482 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 19,515 19,198 20,698 21,346 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 49,559 49,946 49,397 48,240 49,343 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 44,280 44,578 44,111 43,170 44,150 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,473 3,477 3,442 3,502 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 21,697 21,520 21,409 20,646 20,720 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 17,887 17,777 17,212 17,140 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,545 34,190 31,203 25,850 30,521 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,461 17,574 17,600 16,628 17,312 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,933 2,944 2,905 2,992 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,155 2,141 2,102 2,162 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,411 7,291 7,267 7,084 7,189 452 General merchandise stores....................... 49,965 50,358 50,099 48,951 49,601 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 15,737 15,737 15,667 15,923 16,517 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 34,621 34,432 33,028 33,084 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 30,644 30,440 29,505 29,403 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,977 3,992 3,523 3,681 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,625 9,722 9,612 9,242 9,427 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 25,782 25,418 25,008 23,365 23,397 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 18,494 18,092 16,658 16,261 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 37,944 38,162 37,820 37,563 37,965 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2009

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 12 month total % Chg. 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2009 from Dec(2) Nov Oct Dec Nov Code 2008 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 4,139,381 -6.2 409,231 347,175 344,726 387,964 338,788 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 3,443,815 -4.9 352,419 295,513 287,895 334,459 289,976 Retail ....................................... 3,683,124 -7.0 370,945 311,226 306,112 350,138 302,569 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 102,736 91,199 136,308 103,191 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 695,566 -12.3 56,812 51,662 56,831 53,505 48,812 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 618,290 -13.4 50,727 45,771 50,147 47,105 42,565 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 36,805 40,184 38,596 34,435 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,891 6,684 6,400 6,247 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 93,824 -11.1 9,185 8,223 7,672 9,521 8,754 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,324 4,179 4,542 4,469 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,899 3,493 4,979 4,285 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 102,451 -7.8 13,804 9,944 7,506 13,913 10,325 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 7,790 5,825 10,989 8,204 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,154 1,681 2,924 2,121 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 285,751 -11.6 20,897 21,802 23,268 22,113 23,230 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 18,481 20,081 18,877 19,830 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 589,673 0.3 54,161 49,210 49,734 52,275 49,296 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 526,308 0.0 46,892 43,865 44,420 45,372 44,062 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,459 3,536 4,660 3,548 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 253,945 3.3 24,235 20,767 21,430 23,123 19,808 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 17,279 17,955 19,054 16,403 447 Gasoline stations................................ 361,542 -24.5 32,680 31,728 32,264 24,506 28,049 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 209,358 -3.1 28,751 18,787 17,394 26,863 18,858 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 762 743 1,165 817 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,132 2,976 4,107 3,210 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 7,777 7,124 10,633 7,869 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,125 2,081 2,771 2,181 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 87,197 -0.6 12,429 7,422 6,366 11,957 7,441 452 General merchandise stores....................... 594,618 -0.2 70,980 55,296 48,816 69,679 54,778 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 188,330 -5.8 26,996 18,605 15,011 27,417 19,569 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 19,092 15,453 28,238 20,196 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 36,691 33,805 42,262 35,209 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 32,360 29,801 37,058 31,197 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 4,331 4,004 5,204 4,012 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 114,252 -2.8 11,572 9,334 9,935 10,974 9,065 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 294,947 -0.9 35,439 27,051 24,896 31,709 24,153 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 19,936 17,766 23,654 16,993 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 456,257 0.7 38,286 35,949 38,614 37,826 36,219 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2009

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Dec Nov 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.3 +5.4 +1.8 +2.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.2 +5.2 +1.9 +2.0 Retail .................................. -0.2 +5.9 +1.9 +2.8 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -0.8 +6.0 +1.2 +5.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -0.9 +7.6 +1.5 +6.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.3 -3.8 +0.7 -5.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -2.6 -0.7 +2.8 -4.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.4 -5.8 +2.3 -8.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.8 +2.7 +1.1 +1.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.7 +2.6 +1.1 +1.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.8 +5.1 +0.5 +3.9 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.0 +33.6 +9.6 +12.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.6 +5.0 -0.1 +1.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +1.6 +4.6 +0.3 +1.4 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.8 +2.1 +0.5 +1.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 0.0 -1.2 +0.4 -4.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.0 +4.1 +1.1 +3.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.4 +10.3 +1.6 +8.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.6 +1.0 +0.9 +0.5 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2009

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Dec Nov 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +17.9 +5.5 +0.7 +2.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +19.3 +5.4 +2.6 +1.9 Retail .................................. +19.2 +5.9 +1.7 +2.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +10.0 +6.2 -9.1 +5.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +10.8 +7.7 -8.7 +7.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +11.7 -3.5 +7.2 -6.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +38.8 -0.8 +32.5 -3.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -4.2 -5.5 -6.3 -6.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +10.1 +3.6 -1.1 -0.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +6.9 +3.4 -1.2 -0.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +16.7 +4.8 -3.1 +4.8 447 Gasoline stations................................ +3.0 +33.4 -1.7 +13.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +53.0 +7.0 +8.0 -0.4 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +67.5 +3.9 +16.6 -0.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +28.4 +1.9 +13.3 +0.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +45.1 -1.5 +23.9 -4.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +24.0 +5.4 -6.0 +3.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +31.0 +11.8 +8.7 +12.0 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +6.5 +1.2 -6.9 -0.7 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--DECEMBER 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/retail.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: January 14, 2010