X-13ARIMA-SEATS Seasonal Adjustment Program

Stock Series Holiday Regressors Generated By Flow Series Holiday Regressors

David F. Findley⁽¹⁾

ABSTRACT

Stock economic time series such as end-of-month inventories arise from a succession of monthly inflows and outflows, i.e., from an accumulation of monthly net flows. We use the perspective of stocks as accumulations of monthly flows to derive holiday regressors for end-of-month stock series from cumulative sums of flow series holiday regressors. Our focus is on common flow holiday regressor properties that yield simple formulas for the stock regressors. The resulting regressors seem to be the first holiday regressors for stock series. Stock Easter holiday effect regressors obtained in this way have been implemented in X-13-ARIMA-SEATS. Empirical results are shown from their application to U.S. manufacturing inventory series from the M3 Survey.

KEY WORDS: Stock time series; Inventory series; Seasonal adjustment; Calendar effects; Moving holidays; Forecasting, X-13-ARIMA-SEATS.

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⁽¹⁾ David F. Findley was the Senior Mathematical Statistican for Time Series and is now a consultant, U. S. Census Bureau, 4600 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC 20233. email : david.f.findley@census.gov