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FOR WIRE TRANSMISION 8:30 A.M. ET., Tuesday, February 13, 2001

ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES

January 2001

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for January, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $273.3 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 3.5 percent (±0.9%) from January 2000. Total sales for the November through January period were up 3.9 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2000 percent change was unrevised from +0.1 percent (±0.4%).

Durable goods increased 0.8 percent (±1.4%) from December, but were 0.5 percent (±1.8%) below last year. Furniture sales were up 1.2 percent (±2.9%) from January a year ago.

Nondurable goods increased 0.7 percent (±0.6%) from December and were up 6.4 percent from January 2000. Drug store sales were up 11.1 percent from last year. Gasoline sales were up 9.8 percent from January a year ago.

The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys.

Percent Change in Retail Sales

(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

   Month to month percent change   

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for February is scheduled to be released March 13, 2001 at 8:30 a.m.

Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 457-2713 or (301) 457-2666.

This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--January 2001

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2001 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business Jan Dec Nov code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 273,268 271,266 270,931 Total (excl. auto dealers). 206,405 204,802 204,753 Durable goods, total........ 111,209 110,349 110,315 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,480 15,317 15,189 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 12,218 12,071 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,288 1,276 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 66,863 66,464 66,178 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 63,400 62,872 62,695 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,592 3,483 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,449 14,242 14,365 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,672 6,865 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,556 6,467 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 162,059 160,917 160,616 53 General merchandise group stores.. 34,204 33,965 34,087 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 26,503 26,395 26,505 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 26,954 27,080 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,420 1,419 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 6,150 6,163 54 Food stores....................... 41,062 41,141 40,786 541 Grocery stores.................. 38,970 39,035 38,650 554 Gasoline service stations......... 18,454 18,007 18,523 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 12,226 12,122 12,038 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 949 950 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ (*) 3,326 3,312 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,820 1,824 58 Eating and drinking places........ 26,135 25,867 25,757 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 11,565 11,375 11,407 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,568 2,628 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 9,532 9,337 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 69,712 69,963 594 2000 1999 SIC Kind of business code Jan(r) Dec(r) Retail trade, total........... 264,078 262,516 Total (excl. auto dealers). 196,562 196,735 Durable goods, total........ 111,791 110,124 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,313 15,537 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 12,086 12,185 525 Hardware stores................. 1,275 1,295 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 67,516 65,781 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 64,015 62,318 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,501 3,463 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,282 14,116 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,875 6,759 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 6,355 6,296 5722 Household appliance stores.... (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 152,287 152,392 53 General merchandise group stores.. 33,299 32,814 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 26,131 25,557 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 26,211 26,120 533 Variety stores.................. 1,301 1,270 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,867 5,987 54 Food stores....................... 38,815 40,282 541 Grocery stores.................. 36,739 38,207 554 Gasoline service stations......... 16,801 16,771 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,384 11,304 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 913 906 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ 2,992 3,025 565 Family clothing stores.......... (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,814 1,791 58 Eating and drinking places........ 25,021 24,794 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,409 10,533 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,398 2,471 5961 Total mail order................... 8,387 8,139 53,56,57, GAF................................ 68,023 67,509 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--January 2001

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2001 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business Jan Dec Nov code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 241,395 317,285 272,790 Total (excl. auto dealers). 181,238 259,770 213,181 Durable goods, total........ 97,510 116,331 105,103 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 11,935 13,486 14,425 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 10,593 11,588 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,332 1,261 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 60,157 57,515 59,609 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 57,123 54,196 56,175 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) 46,407 48,277 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,319 3,434 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,495 19,758 15,538 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 7,920 7,627 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 9,998 6,842 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) 1,218 1,096 Nondurable goods, total..... 143,885 200,954 167,687 53 General merchandise group stores.. 25,784 55,366 40,081 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 19,639 44,132 31,594 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 44,912 32,189 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 2,311 1,652 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 8,923 6,835 54 Food stores....................... 39,131 44,999 40,715 541 Grocery stores.................. 37,294 42,236 38,611 554 Gasoline service stations......... 16,941 17,647 17,856 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 8,644 19,166 13,532 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 1,622 1,091 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) 5,302 3,567 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) 8,349 5,845 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 2,364 1,767 58 Eating and drinking places........ 23,704 26,048 24,546 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 11,415 13,525 11,247 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 3,606 2,707 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 12,916 10,682 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 114,145 79,657 594 2000 1999 SIC Kind of business code Jan Dec Retail trade, total........... 229,871 312,851 Total (excl. auto dealers). 171,579 253,357 Durable goods, total........ 94,785 120,204 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 11,364 14,141 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 9,185 10,918 525 Hardware stores................. 1,048 1,369 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 58,292 59,494 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 55,309 56,211 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... 47,625 48,757 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 2,983 3,283 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,238 19,819 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,084 8,158 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 6,241 9,721 5722 Household appliance stores.... 887 1,183 Nondurable goods, total..... 135,086 192,647 53 General merchandise group stores.. 25,494 54,329 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 19,755 43,370 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 20,124 44,190 533 Variety stores.................. 946 2,110 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 4,793 8,849 54 Food stores....................... 37,157 44,219 541 Grocery stores.................. 35,343 41,493 554 Gasoline service stations......... 15,272 16,737 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 8,163 18,113 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 744 1,558 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ 2,169 4,903 565 Family clothing stores.......... 3,158 7,905 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,330 2,352 58 Eating and drinking places........ 22,894 24,794 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,076 12,861 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,043 3,487 5961 Total mail order................... 7,724 11,549 53,56,57, GAF................................ 53,969 112,063 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1C. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--January 2001

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 1 month total Change SIC Kind of business 2001 from code 2000 Retail trade, total........... 241,395 5.0 Total (excl. auto dealers). 181,238 5.6 Durable goods, total........ 97,510 2.9 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 11,935 5.0 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) (*) 525 Hardware stores................. (*) (*) 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 60,157 3.2 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 57,123 3.3 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (*) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) (*) 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,495 1.9 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) (*) 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) (*) 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (*) Nondurable goods, total..... 143,885 6.5 53 General merchandise group stores.. 25,784 1.1 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 19,639 -0.6 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) (*) 533 Variety stores.................. (*) (*) 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) (*) 54 Food stores....................... 39,131 5.3 541 Grocery stores.................. 37,294 5.5 554 Gasoline service stations......... 16,941 10.9 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 8,644 5.9 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) (*) 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) (*) 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (*) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) (*) 58 Eating and drinking places........ 23,704 3.5 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 11,415 13.3 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) (*) 5961 Total mail order................... (*) (*) 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) (*) 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--January 2001

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Jan Dec 2001 2000 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Dec Jan Nov Dec CODE 2000 2000 2000 1999 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... +0.7 +3.5 +0.1 +3.3 Total (excl. auto dealers). +0.8 +5.0 0.0 +4.1 Durable goods, total........ +0.8 -0.5 0.0 +0.2 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. +1.1 +1.1 +0.8 -1.4 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +0.6 -1.0 +0.4 +1.0 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +0.8 -1.0 +0.3 +0.9 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. +1.5 +1.2 -0.9 +0.9 Nondurable goods, total..... +0.7 +6.4 +0.2 +5.6 53 General merchandise group stores.. +0.7 +2.7 -0.4 +3.5 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +0.4 +1.4 -0.4 +3.3 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) -0.5 +3.2 54 Food stores....................... -0.2 +5.8 +0.9 +2.1 541 Grocery stores.................. -0.2 +6.1 +1.0 +2.2 554 Gasoline service stations......... +2.5 +9.8 -2.8 +7.4 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +0.9 +7.4 +0.7 +7.2 58 Eating and drinking places........ +1.0 +4.5 +0.4 +4.3 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +1.7 +11.1 -0.3 +8.0 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Jan Dec 2001 2000 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Dec Jan Nov Dec CODE 2000 2000 2000 1999 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... -23.9 +5.0 +16.3 +1.4 Total (excl. auto group).. -30.2 +5.6 +21.9 +2.5 Durable goods, total........ -16.2 +2.9 +10.7 -3.2 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. -11.5 +5.0 -6.5 -4.6 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +4.6 +3.2 -3.5 -3.3 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +5.4 +3.3 -3.5 -3.6 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -31.7 +1.9 +27.2 -0.3 Nondurable goods, total..... -28.4 +6.5 +19.8 +4.3 53 General merchandise group stores.. -53.4 +1.1 +38.1 +1.9 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). -55.5 -0.6 +39.7 +1.8 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +39.5 +1.6 54 Food stores....................... -13.0 +5.3 +10.5 +1.8 541 Grocery stores.................. -11.7 +5.5 +9.4 +1.8 554 Gasoline service stations......... -4.0 +10.9 -1.2 +5.4 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... -54.9 +5.9 +41.6 +5.8 58 Eating and drinking places........ -9.0 +3.5 +6.1 +5.1 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... -15.6 +13.3 +20.3 +5.2 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE:Advance Monthly Retail Sales--January 2001 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.

Reliability of Data

The Advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the Advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the Advance and because of sampling variability present in each survey. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is +/- 1.65 x 0.9% or +/- 1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value +/- 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value).

Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. They are based on two components. The first component is a measure of the average difference between the Advance and the Preliminary estimates. The second reflects the variability of the Preliminary estimate. Additionally, both the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors, among others. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize these errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured.

Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample are published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions and the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Data).


(1) ---- The coefficients of variation (CVs) for level of sales and the standard errors for trends are medians based on estimates for the preceding 12 months.

(2) ---- These columns measure the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates -- i.e., the difference between estimates of trend for the same pair of data months. The revisions for Retail trade total are based on the latest 12 months of data.


o 3rd Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales 3rd Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales


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Source: U. S. Census Bureau 
        Service Sector Statistics Division

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