The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $306.6 billion, a decrease of 0.9 percent (±0.9%) from the previous month, but up 3.9 percent (±1.1%) from January 2002. Total sales for the November 2002 through January 2003 period were up 3.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2002 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±1.0%) to +2.0 percent (±0.4%).
Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±1.0%) from December, but were 3.5 percent (±1.1%) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 18.5 percent (±2.2%) from January 2002 and sales of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 7.3 percent (±2.4%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section at the end of this page.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for February is scheduled to be released March 13, 2003 at 8:30 a.m.
Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 763-2713.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2003
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (In Millions of dollars) 2003 2002 2002 2002 2001 NAICS Kind of Business Jan Dec Nov Code adv. prel. final Jan(r) Dec(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 306,570 309,454 303,385 295,195 295,789 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 234,652 231,738 231,364 223,815 221,822 Retail ....................................... 276,921 280,128 274,621 267,467 267,895 GAFO............................................. (*) 80,270 80,050 78,789 78,594 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 71,918 77,716 72,021 71,380 73,967 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 65,663 71,522 65,860 65,295 67,879 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,857 7,962 8,062 7,888 7,811 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,700 7,810 7,781 7,699 7,798 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 5,626 5,581 5,444 5,517 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,184 2,200 2,255 2,281 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 27,162 26,387 26,703 25,325 24,899 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 22,852 23,147 22,131 21,803 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 41,170 40,114 40,660 40,071 40,085 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 37,005 35,917 36,540 36,063 36,030 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,693 2,624 2,601 2,627 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 15,677 15,511 15,538 15,023 14,709 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 13,070 13,174 12,702 12,113 447 Gasoline stations................................ 21,351 20,788 20,449 18,015 17,692 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 14,839 14,790 14,666 14,550 14,376 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 855 849 859 875 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,904 2,862 2,881 2,804 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,817 1,807 1,822 1,811 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,466 7,442 7,508 7,584 7,327 452 General merchandise stores....................... 38,716 38,497 38,353 37,390 37,419 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 18,256 18,277 18,306 19,242 19,280 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 20,220 20,047 18,148 18,139 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 16,986 16,792 15,014 14,949 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,234 3,255 3,134 3,190 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,304 9,301 9,250 9,397 9,294 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 13,761 13,810 13,630 13,145 12,518 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 9,398 9,322 9,368 8,804 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 29,649 29,326 28,764 27,728 27,894 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2003
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 1 month total % Chg. 2003 2002 2002 2002 2001 NAICS Kind of Business 2003 from Jan Dec Nov Code 2002 adv. prel. final Jan Dec Retail & food services, total.................... 277,094 4.6 277,094 351,432 303,240 264,922 337,272 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 212,512 5.8 212,512 282,819 237,903 200,789 272,732 Retail ....................................... 249,669 4.2 249,669 322,194 275,310 239,523 309,239 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 125,735 89,475 65,976 123,762 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 64,582 0.7 64,582 68,613 65,337 64,133 64,540 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 58,834 0.6 58,834 62,939 59,472 58,504 59,055 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 54,375 50,517 50,120 51,142 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,674 5,865 5,629 5,485 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,158 -0.2 7,158 9,531 8,941 7,170 9,319 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,680 4,817 4,130 4,811 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,851 4,124 3,040 4,508 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,308 -0.6 7,308 12,513 8,556 7,350 12,387 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 9,637 6,385 5,090 9,406 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,876 2,171 2,260 2,981 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 22,161 6.6 22,161 22,818 24,740 20,787 21,384 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 20,315 22,059 18,701 19,034 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 40,213 4.0 40,213 43,829 41,070 38,651 44,358 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 36,635 3.9 36,635 37,964 36,832 35,270 38,624 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,724 2,766 2,216 3,689 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 15,583 5.0 15,583 17,450 15,150 14,843 16,606 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,782 12,924 12,651 13,797 447 Gasoline stations................................ 19,515 19.3 19,515 19,437 19,345 16,358 16,701 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 10,945 4.3 10,945 25,690 16,061 10,494 24,908 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 1,411 968 683 1,473 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,205 2,991 2,123 4,077 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 8,758 6,078 3,382 8,393 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,333 1,758 1,361 2,360 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,787 -1.0 6,787 13,254 8,574 6,856 13,122 452 General merchandise stores....................... 32,168 5.3 32,168 58,970 43,487 30,550 58,174 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 14,294 -3.3 14,294 31,845 21,592 14,789 33,323 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 32,431 21,995 15,074 33,901 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 27,125 21,895 15,761 24,851 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 22,184 18,236 13,197 20,002 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 4,941 3,659 2,564 4,849 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 8,489 -1.1 8,489 11,919 9,243 8,580 11,809 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 14,760 7.3 14,760 18,170 14,806 13,751 15,931 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 12,875 10,366 9,087 11,709 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 27,425 8.0 27,425 29,238 27,930 25,399 28,033 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (r) Revised.TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2003
Data adjusted for seasonal variatons, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Percent Change) Jan Dec 2003 2002 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Dec Jan Nov Dec Code 2002 2002 2002 2001 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.9 +3.9 +2.0 +4.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.3 +4.8 +0.2 +4.5 Retail .................................. -1.1 +3.5 +2.0 +4.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -7.5 +0.8 +7.9 +5.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -8.2 +0.6 +8.6 +5.4 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -1.3 -0.4 -1.2 +1.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.4 0.0 +0.4 +0.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +2.9 +7.3 -1.2 +6.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +2.6 +2.7 -1.3 +0.1 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +3.0 +2.6 -1.7 -0.3 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.1 +4.4 -0.2 +5.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +2.7 +18.5 +1.7 +17.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.3 +2.0 +0.8 +2.9 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.3 -1.6 -0.9 +1.6 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.6 +3.5 +0.4 +2.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.1 -5.1 -0.2 -5.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... 0.0 -1.0 +0.6 +0.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.4 +4.7 +1.3 +10.3 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.1 +6.9 +2.0 +5.1 Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Percent Change) Jan Dec 2003 2002 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Dec Jan Nov Dec Code 2002 2002 2002 2001 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... -21.2 +4.6 +15.9 +4.2 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -24.9 +5.8 +18.9 +3.7 Retail .................................. -22.5 +4.2 +17.0 +4.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -5.9 +0.7 +5.0 +6.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -6.5 +0.6 +5.8 +6.6 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -24.9 -0.2 +6.6 +2.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -41.6 -0.6 +46.2 +1.0 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -2.9 +6.6 -7.8 +6.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -8.3 +4.0 +6.7 -1.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -3.5 +3.9 +3.1 -1.7 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -10.7 +5.0 +15.2 +5.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ +0.4 +19.3 +0.5 +16.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -57.4 +4.3 +60.0 +3.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -48.8 -1.0 +54.6 +1.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... -45.5 +5.3 +35.6 +1.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -55.1 -3.3 +47.5 -4.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -28.8 -1.1 +29.0 +0.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -18.8 +7.3 +22.7 +14.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -6.2 +8.0 +4.7 +4.3 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JANUARY 2003 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
Source of Data and Reliability of Estimates
Source of Data: The Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey each month to provide an early indication of sales of retail and food service companies. The Advance Monthly Retail Survey is a voluntary survey of a sub-sample of about 5,000 firms selected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Firms responding to this survey account for approximately 65% of the dollar volume estimate. Reliability of Estimates: The reliability of the estimates is a function of sampling and nonsampling errors. The margin of sampling error, as included on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9% or ±1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ± 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value). Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. Nonsampling error, on the other hand, can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors. Although not directly measured, precautionary steps are taken to minimize nonsampling error. Additional survey information is available at www.census.gov/retail.
(1) These columns measure the difference between the estimates of trend for the same pair of data months, i.e. the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates. Revisions are based on estimates from the 12 most recent months. (2) Medians are based on estimates from the 12 most recent months.
4th Quarter 2002 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
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