TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
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Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the 2004 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the results of the 2002 Census of Retail Trade. Revised unadjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on March 30, 2006. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $365.4 billion, an increase of 2.3 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 8.8 percent (±0.8%) from January 2005. Total sales for the November 2005 through January 2006 period were up 7.1 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2005 percent change was revised from +0.7 percent (±0.7%)* to +0.4 percent (±0.4%).*
Retail trade sales were up 2.3 percent (±0.8%) from December 2005 and were up 8.5 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 22.7 percent (±3.1%) from January 2005 and sales of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 14.7 percent (±2.0%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for January is scheduled to be released March 14, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2006
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes.
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2005 2005 2005 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jan(3) Dec Nov Jan Dec Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 365,369 357,003 355,673 335,918 337,429 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 287,156 280,958 280,533 261,353 260,131 Retail ....................................... 328,955 321,706 320,662 303,137 304,545 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 90,588 90,684 86,191 85,793 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 78,213 76,045 75,140 74,565 77,298 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 71,801 69,683 68,832 68,564 71,407 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,574 9,230 9,330 8,785 8,788 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,633 8,463 8,547 8,083 7,975 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,888 6,980 6,556 6,446 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,575 1,567 1,527 1,529 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 30,228 29,242 29,289 26,365 26,531 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,833 25,863 23,326 23,437 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,427 44,354 44,211 42,602 42,304 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,582 39,571 39,415 38,292 38,061 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,943 2,941 2,667 2,645 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,988 18,728 18,666 17,691 17,429 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,808 15,822 15,123 14,741 447 Gasoline stations................................ 35,312 33,482 33,713 28,787 28,728 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,905 17,184 17,195 16,272 16,091 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 819 827 823 820 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,199 3,222 3,001 2,981 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,121 2,158 1,980 2,011 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,013 6,912 6,799 6,597 6,628 452 General merchandise stores....................... 46,459 45,502 45,498 43,253 43,151 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 18,134 17,845 18,027 18,014 18,183 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 27,657 27,471 25,239 24,968 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 24,196 24,004 21,917 21,600 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,461 3,467 3,322 3,368 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,741 9,512 9,648 9,388 9,203 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 22,462 23,052 22,626 20,749 20,419 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 14,459 14,191 12,989 12,784 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 36,414 35,297 35,011 32,781 32,884 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 1 month total % Chg. 2006 2005 2005 2005 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Jan(2) Dec Nov Jan Dec Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 325,686 8.9 325,686 415,577 352,745 299,014 393,631 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 258,650 9.8 258,650 342,827 285,923 235,486 319,419 Retail ....................................... 292,112 8.8 292,112 379,398 319,660 268,560 360,352 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 141,004 99,331 73,268 134,521 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 67,036 5.5 67,036 72,750 66,822 63,528 74,212 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 61,246 5.2 61,246 66,687 60,710 58,211 68,551 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 56,670 50,592 48,779 58,759 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,063 6,112 5,317 5,661 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,607 9.5 8,607 11,325 10,263 7,863 10,809 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,499 5,318 4,482 5,371 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,826 4,945 3,381 5,438 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,061 6.9 8,061 13,798 9,512 7,541 13,049 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 11,613 7,901 6,104 10,933 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,185 1,611 1,437 2,116 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,274 17.6 24,274 25,945 28,069 20,640 23,948 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 23,405 25,397 18,941 21,609 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 42,486 2.6 42,486 49,559 44,031 41,416 46,778 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 38,513 1.9 38,513 42,697 39,218 37,794 40,725 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 4,262 3,012 2,230 3,785 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,836 8.1 18,836 21,069 18,255 17,426 19,764 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 17,800 15,521 14,957 16,775 447 Gasoline stations................................ 31,463 22.0 31,463 31,942 32,027 25,793 27,378 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 13,261 9.7 13,261 30,480 18,463 12,090 28,391 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 1,428 921 649 1,413 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,828 3,386 2,347 4,498 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 11,117 7,432 4,335 10,287 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,859 2,070 1,509 2,671 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,620 6.5 6,620 12,496 7,424 6,214 11,963 452 General merchandise stores....................... 39,167 6.9 39,167 67,906 50,207 36,623 65,421 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 14,017 -1.1 14,017 31,024 21,117 14,169 31,936 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 31,312 21,326 14,317 32,317 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 36,882 29,090 22,454 33,485 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 31,552 25,276 19,813 28,274 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 5,330 3,814 2,641 5,211 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 8,776 6.3 8,776 11,928 9,817 8,256 11,619 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,525 11.1 23,525 30,200 24,770 21,170 27,020 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 19,635 15,567 12,443 17,578 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 33,574 10.2 33,574 36,179 33,085 30,454 33,279 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2006
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Jan Dec 2006 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Dec Jan Nov Dec Code 2005 2005 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +2.3 +8.8 +0.4 +5.8 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +2.2 +9.9 +0.2 +8.0 Retail .................................. +2.3 +8.5 +0.3 +5.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +2.9 +4.9 +1.2 -1.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +3.0 +4.7 +1.2 -2.4 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +3.7 +9.0 -1.1 +5.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +2.0 +6.8 -1.0 +6.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +3.4 +14.7 -0.2 +10.2 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.2 +4.3 +0.3 +4.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 0.0 +3.4 +0.4 +4.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.4 +7.3 +0.3 +7.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +5.5 +22.7 -0.7 +16.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +4.2 +10.0 -0.1 +6.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +1.5 +6.3 +1.7 +4.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +2.1 +7.4 0.0 +5.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.6 +0.7 -1.0 -1.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +2.4 +3.8 -1.4 +3.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -2.6 +8.3 +1.9 +12.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +3.2 +11.1 +0.8 +7.3 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Jan Dec 2006 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Dec Jan Nov Dec Code 2005 2005 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -21.6 +8.9 +17.8 +5.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -24.6 +9.8 +19.9 +7.3 Retail .................................. -23.0 +8.8 +18.7 +5.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -7.9 +5.5 +8.9 -2.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -8.2 +5.2 +9.8 -2.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -24.0 +9.5 +10.3 +4.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -41.6 +6.9 +45.1 +5.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -6.4 +17.6 -7.6 +8.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -14.3 +2.6 +12.6 +5.9 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -9.8 +1.9 +8.9 +4.8 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -10.6 +8.1 +15.4 +6.6 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.5 +22.0 -0.3 +16.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -56.5 +9.7 +65.1 +7.4 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -47.0 +6.5 +68.3 +4.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... -42.3 +6.9 +35.3 +3.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -54.8 -1.1 +46.9 -2.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -26.4 +6.3 +21.5 +2.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -22.1 +11.1 +21.9 +11.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -7.2 +10.2 +9.4 +8.7 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JANUARY 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current
Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales 
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
