WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
| Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the 2005 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised not adjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on March 29, 2007. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $370.4 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.7%)* from the previous month and up 2.3 percent (±0.7%) from January 2006. Total sales for the November 2006 through January 2007 were up 4.1 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2006 percent change was revised from 0.9 percent (± 0.7%) to 1.2 percent (± 0.4%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from December 2006 and were 2.0 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.4 percent (±4.5%) from January 2006 and sales of health and personal care stores were up 8.1 percent (±1.7%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for February is scheduled to be released March 13, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2007
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2007 2006 2006 2006 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jan.(3) Dec. Nov. Jan. Dec. Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 370,418 370,447 366,065 362,135 350,494 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 293,807 292,846 289,219 284,212 276,343 Retail ....................................... 333,252 333,006 329,738 326,833 316,267 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 95,910 95,032 93,077 90,247 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 76,611 77,601 76,846 77,923 74,151 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,436 71,293 70,612 71,436 67,844 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,099 10,014 10,016 10,124 9,549 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,359 9,468 9,299 9,041 8,408 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,507 7,466 7,452 6,778 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,961 1,833 1,589 1,630 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,507 29,283 29,090 30,457 28,568 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,602 25,400 26,930 25,193 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 46,944 46,626 46,328 44,149 44,189 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 41,518 41,253 40,981 39,171 39,357 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,292 3,268 3,102 3,041 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,474 19,360 19,315 18,015 17,894 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,310 16,263 14,979 14,903 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,095 34,340 33,146 35,106 33,138 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,413 18,225 18,035 17,609 17,177 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,329 3,232 3,260 3,121 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,212 2,217 2,226 2,110 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,133 7,096 7,132 7,359 6,923 452 General merchandise stores....................... 47,974 47,343 46,760 45,427 44,763 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 18,050 17,801 17,719 17,988 17,825 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 29,542 29,041 27,439 26,938 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 26,011 25,531 23,916 23,539 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,531 3,510 3,523 3,399 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,025 10,139 10,101 9,840 9,313 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,618 23,511 23,670 21,783 22,194 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 15,918 15,762 14,536 14,274 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 37,166 37,441 36,327 35,302 34,227 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2007
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 1 month total % Chg. 2007 2006 2006 2006 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2007 from Jan.(2) Dec. Nov. Jan. Dec. Code 2006 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 336,121 4.3 336,121 425,145 363,468 322,222 409,063 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 268,711 5.0 268,711 353,087 295,046 256,007 337,946 Retail ....................................... 301,817 4.2 301,817 386,731 329,175 289,603 373,878 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 146,999 104,174 79,023 140,327 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 67,410 1.8 67,410 72,058 68,422 66,215 71,117 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 61,772 2.2 61,772 66,160 62,350 60,435 65,062 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 54,908 51,072 49,726 54,689 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,898 6,072 5,780 6,055 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,079 1.7 9,079 11,837 10,917 8,929 11,583 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,539 5,472 4,854 5,518 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,298 5,445 4,075 6,065 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,831 5.1 8,831 15,348 10,326 8,400 13,806 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 12,656 8,451 6,848 11,522 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,692 1,875 1,552 2,284 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,288 -0.4 24,288 25,294 27,860 24,381 25,499 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 22,555 24,790 22,406 22,951 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 45,477 7.5 45,477 51,543 46,400 42,323 49,303 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,854 7.1 40,854 43,976 40,981 38,153 42,388 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 4,602 3,359 2,562 4,351 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,727 10.4 19,727 21,373 18,890 17,871 20,149 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 17,859 15,954 14,904 16,662 447 Gasoline stations................................ 30,958 -1.4 30,958 32,760 31,688 31,385 31,978 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 13,746 6.0 13,746 31,617 19,510 12,970 30,440 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 1,454 917 620 1,357 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,987 3,390 2,536 4,741 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 11,902 7,985 4,699 11,315 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,960 2,177 1,681 2,866 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,755 -1.9 6,755 12,532 7,596 6,888 12,344 452 General merchandise stores....................... 41,192 6.9 41,192 70,010 51,861 38,541 66,982 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 14,267 1.9 14,267 30,617 21,249 14,006 30,965 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 31,308 21,756 14,337 31,732 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 39,393 30,612 24,535 36,017 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 34,023 26,705 21,692 30,789 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 5,370 3,907 2,843 5,228 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,222 2.5 9,222 12,479 10,145 9,001 11,732 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 25,132 10.7 25,132 29,880 25,560 22,699 28,945 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 21,043 17,054 14,347 19,370 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 34,304 5.2 34,304 38,414 34,293 32,619 35,185 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html
(2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.
(3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532).
(4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.
TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2007
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Jan. Dec. 2007 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Dec. Jan. Nov. Dec. Code 2006 2006 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... 0.0 +2.3 +1.2 +5.7 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.3 +3.4 +1.3 +6.0 Retail .................................. +0.1 +2.0 +1.0 +5.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -1.3 -1.7 +1.0 +4.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -1.2 -1.4 +1.0 +5.1 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.8 -0.2 0.0 +4.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.2 +3.5 +1.8 +12.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +0.8 -3.1 +0.7 +2.5 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.7 +6.3 +0.6 +5.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.6 +6.0 +0.7 +4.8 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.6 +8.1 +0.2 +8.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.7 -2.9 +3.6 +3.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +1.0 +4.6 +1.1 +6.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.5 -3.1 -0.5 +2.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.3 +5.6 +1.2 +5.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.4 +0.3 +0.5 -0.1 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.1 +1.9 +0.4 +8.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.5 +8.4 -0.7 +5.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.7 +5.3 +3.1 +9.4 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Jan. Dec. 2007 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Dec. Jan. Nov. Dec. Code 2006 2006 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -20.9 +4.3 +17.0 +3.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -23.9 +5.0 +19.7 +4.5 Retail .................................. -22.0 +4.2 +17.5 +3.4 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -6.5 +1.8 +5.3 +1.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -6.6 +2.2 +6.1 +1.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -23.3 +1.7 +8.4 +2.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -42.5 +5.1 +48.6 +11.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -4.0 -0.4 -9.2 -0.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -11.8 +7.5 +11.1 +4.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -7.1 +7.1 +7.3 +3.7 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -7.7 +10.4 +13.1 +6.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ -5.5 -1.4 +3.4 +2.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -56.5 +6.0 +62.1 +3.9 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -46.1 -1.9 +65.0 +1.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... -41.2 +6.9 +35.0 +4.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -53.4 +1.9 +44.1 -1.1 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -26.1 +2.5 +23.0 +6.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -15.9 +10.7 +16.9 +3.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -10.7 +5.2 +12.0 +9.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JANUARY 2007 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
