CB-02-34FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Wednesday, March 13, 2002
**************************************************************************************************************************** Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2000 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised unadjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on May 3. ****************************************************************************************************************************
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $296.4 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±1.0%) from the previous month and up 2.9 percent (±1.7%) from February 2001. Total sales for the December 2001 through February 2002 period were up 3.3 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The December 2001 to January 2002 percent change was revised from -0.2 percent (±1.0%) to -0.3 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±1.2%) from January and were 2.5 percent (±1.7%) above last year. Electronics and appliance stores were up 8.4 percent (±2.6%) from February 2001 and sales of health and personal care stores were up 8.1 percent (±3.6%) from last year. Sales of gasoline stations decreased 13.0 percent (±4.8%) from February a year ago.
The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail and food services sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section at the end of this page.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--February 2002
Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences but not for price changes (Millions of dollars) 2002 2002 2001 2001 2001 NAICS Kind of Business Feb Jan Dec code adv. prel. final Feb(r) Jan(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 296,414 295,605 296,560 288,095 287,727 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 223,635 223,139 220,569 217,512 217,804 Retail ....................................... 268,453 267,951 268,194 261,848 261,111 GAFO............................................. (*) 77,949 77,432 74,124 74,357 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 72,779 72,466 75,991 70,583 69,923 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 66,708 66,371 69,961 64,494 63,951 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,081 7,959 7,939 7,638 7,805 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,717 7,635 7,887 7,118 7,159 44311,13 Appl., T.V., & camera.......................... (*) 5,460 5,533 5,043 5,119 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,175 2,354 2,075 2,040 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,772 24,868 24,197 23,906 23,594 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 22,052 21,429 20,662 20,389 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 40,764 40,841 40,781 39,822 39,581 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 36,810 36,937 36,771 36,030 35,772 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,557 2,589 2,480 2,509 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 15,096 15,106 14,623 13,966 13,817 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 13,105 11,999 11,985 11,856 447 Gasoline stations................................ 17,927 17,924 17,196 20,609 20,723 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 14,593 14,606 14,401 14,523 14,357 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 834 851 909 916 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,717 2,664 2,806 2,752 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,842 1,842 1,826 1,836 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,649 7,776 7,557 7,027 6,975 452 General merchandise stores....................... 36,509 36,348 35,744 34,227 34,520 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 20,480 20,542 20,305 19,545 19,768 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 15,806 15,439 14,682 14,752 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 12,446 12,017 11,596 11,646 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,360 3,422 3,086 3,106 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,441 9,346 9,387 9,129 9,025 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 13,125 13,076 12,491 13,300 13,632 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 9,436 8,856 8,967 9,144 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 27,961 27,654 28,366 26,247 26,616 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (r) Revised.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--February 2002
Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2 month total Change 2002 2002 2001 2001 2001 NAICS Kind of Business 2002 from Feb Jan Dec code 2001 adv. prel. final Feb Jan Retail & food services, total.................... 529,327 3.0 263,404 265,923 339,371 255,884 257,934 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 395,969 2.9 195,599 200,370 273,240 190,196 194,787 Retail ....................................... 478,412 2.7 237,820 240,592 311,260 231,868 233,740 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 64,864 123,289 61,876 61,060 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 133,358 3.5 67,805 65,553 66,131 65,688 63,147 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 122,438 3.7 62,505 59,933 60,656 60,366 57,748 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 51,652 52,817 52,019 49,878 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,620 5,475 5,322 5,399 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 14,476 4.0 7,249 7,227 9,376 6,836 7,079 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,053 4,729 3,842 3,963 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,174 4,647 2,994 3,116 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 14,422 7.6 7,030 7,392 12,459 6,472 6,926 44311 Appl., T.V., & camera.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,154 9,467 4,503 4,843 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,238 2,992 1,969 2,083 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 40,960 4.9 20,157 20,803 21,510 19,411 19,644 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 18,590 18,922 16,881 17,147 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 76,060 3.3 36,760 39,300 45,115 35,911 37,715 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 69,364 3.3 33,387 35,977 39,492 32,679 34,484 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,189 3,611 2,083 2,138 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 29,281 8.9 14,311 14,970 16,729 13,212 13,665 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 13,026 14,219 11,350 11,809 447 Gasoline stations................................ 32,032 -13.5 15,614 16,418 16,766 17,971 19,065 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 22,258 2.0 11,757 10,501 24,971 11,625 10,204 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 669 1,444 696 729 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 1,997 3,879 2,211 1,998 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,392 8,429 3,598 3,306 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,376 2,387 1,477 1,351 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 13,113 10.7 6,073 7,040 13,410 5,666 6,178 452 General merchandise stores....................... 59,088 7.1 29,937 29,151 57,297 27,929 27,236 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 32,672 5.7 16,599 16,073 34,711 15,749 15,171 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 16,365 35,268 16,061 15,468 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 13,078 22,586 12,180 12,065 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 10,380 17,353 9,625 9,608 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,698 5,233 2,555 2,457 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 17,442 4.6 8,836 8,606 11,747 8,493 8,189 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 25,922 -5.2 12,291 13,631 15,749 12,654 14,692 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 9,087 11,663 7,792 8,787 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 50,915 5.6 25,584 25,331 28,111 24,016 24,194 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (r) Revised.TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--February 2002
Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Feb Jan 2002 2002 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan CODE 2002 2001 2001 2001 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.3 +2.9 -0.3 +2.7 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.2 +2.8 +1.2 +2.4 Retail .................................. +0.2 +2.5 -0.1 +2.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.4 +3.1 -4.6 +3.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +0.5 +3.4 -5.1 +3.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.5 +5.8 +0.3 +2.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +1.1 +8.4 -3.2 +6.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.4 +3.6 +2.8 +5.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.2 +2.4 +0.1 +3.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.3 +2.2 +0.5 +3.3 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -0.1 +8.1 +3.3 +9.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ 0.0 -13.0 +4.2 -13.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.1 +0.5 +1.4 +1.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -1.6 +8.9 +2.9 +11.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.4 +6.7 +1.7 +5.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.3 +4.8 +1.2 +3.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.0 +3.4 -0.4 +3.6 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.4 -1.3 +4.7 -4.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.1 +6.5 -2.5 +3.9 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Feb Jan 2002 2002 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan CODE 2002 2001 2001 2001 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.9 +2.9 -21.6 +3.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -2.4 +2.8 -26.7 +2.9 Retail .................................. -1.2 +2.6 -22.7 +2.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +3.4 +3.2 -0.9 +3.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +4.3 +3.5 -1.2 +3.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.3 +6.0 -22.9 +2.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -4.9 +8.6 -40.7 +6.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -3.1 +3.8 -3.3 +5.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -6.5 +2.4 -12.9 +4.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -7.2 +2.2 -8.9 +4.3 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -4.4 +8.3 -10.5 +9.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ -4.9 -13.1 -2.1 -13.9 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +12.0 +1.1 -57.9 +2.9 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -13.7 +7.2 -47.5 +14.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... +2.7 +7.2 -49.1 +7.0 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +3.3 +5.4 -53.7 +5.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +2.7 +4.0 -26.7 +5.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -9.8 -2.9 -13.4 -7.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.0 +6.5 -9.9 +4.7 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE:Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--FEBRUARY 2002 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.
The Advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau’s full retail sales sample. Estimates from the Advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the Advance and because of sampling variability present in each survey. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9% or ±1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ± 1.65 × CV × (the estimated value). Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. Estimates from the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors. Additionally, estimates of sales prior to March 2001 have been restated from SIC-based estimates. The restatement methodology may have introduced additional nonsampling error. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize nonsampling errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured. Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample will be published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions, the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Estimates).
4th Quarter 2001 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
