CB-03-46FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Thursday, March 13, 2003
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Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly
retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the
2001 Annual Retail Trade Survey. |
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $304.1 billion, a decrease of 1.6 percent (±0.9%) from the previous month, but up 2.6 percent (±1.1%) from February 2002. Total sales for the December 2002 through February 2003 period were up 1.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The December 2002 to January 2003 percent change was revised from -0.9 percent (±0.9%) to +0.3 percent (±0.4%).
Retail trade sales were down 1.7 percent (±1.0%) from January, but were 2.5 percent (±1.1%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 23.9 percent (±2.3%) from February 2002 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 9.3 percent (±6.7%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section at the end of this page.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2003
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (In Millions of dollars) 2003 2003 2002 2002 2002 NAICS Kind of Business Feb Jan Dec Code adv. prel. final Feb(r) Jan(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 304,092 308,967 308,061 296,371 294,130 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 232,458 234,838 231,940 224,326 223,542 Retail ....................................... 275,125 279,859 278,830 268,374 266,402 GAFO............................................. (*) 80,428 80,302 79,188 78,558 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 71,634 74,129 76,121 72,045 70,588 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 65,483 67,937 69,949 65,820 64,503 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,830 7,958 7,972 7,953 7,819 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,659 7,695 7,782 7,724 7,672 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 5,549 5,593 5,507 5,421 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,146 2,189 2,217 2,251 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,906 26,934 26,266 25,399 25,352 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 23,352 22,746 22,176 22,158 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 40,832 41,221 40,195 40,052 40,079 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 36,667 37,034 35,979 36,009 36,063 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,634 2,691 2,631 2,619 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 15,764 15,747 15,533 15,084 14,978 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 13,366 13,100 12,653 12,638 447 Gasoline stations................................ 22,182 21,596 20,806 17,903 18,075 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 14,372 14,903 14,858 14,597 14,529 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 845 857 876 857 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,925 2,966 2,871 2,885 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,786 1,814 1,859 1,829 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,359 7,475 7,419 7,396 7,460 452 General merchandise stores....................... 39,161 38,687 38,502 37,775 37,413 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 18,295 18,241 18,281 19,264 19,282 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 20,446 20,221 18,511 18,131 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 17,179 16,973 15,407 14,997 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,267 3,248 3,104 3,134 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,153 9,429 9,350 9,387 9,338 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 14,273 14,085 14,026 13,059 13,099 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 9,585 9,523 9,290 9,254 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 28,967 29,108 29,231 27,997 27,728 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2003
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 2 month total % Chg. 2003 2003 2002 2002 2002 NAICS Kind of Business 2003 from Feb Jan Dec Code 2002 adv. prel. final Feb Jan Retail & food services, total.................... 549,858 4.2 269,378 280,480 351,144 262,575 264,922 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 416,516 5.0 203,549 212,967 282,728 195,975 200,789 Retail ....................................... 496,631 4.2 243,047 253,584 321,913 237,126 239,523 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 68,359 125,752 66,693 65,976 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 133,342 2.0 65,829 67,513 68,416 66,600 64,133 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 122,264 2.2 60,441 61,823 62,744 61,147 58,504 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 52,251 54,200 51,645 50,120 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,690 5,672 5,453 5,629 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 14,361 0.5 7,000 7,361 9,518 7,126 7,170 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,167 4,661 4,158 4,130 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,194 4,857 2,968 3,040 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 14,196 -0.7 6,832 7,364 12,500 6,942 7,350 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 5,233 9,626 4,874 5,090 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,131 2,874 2,068 2,260 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 41,510 1.4 19,584 21,926 22,727 20,152 20,787 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 19,662 20,221 18,096 18,701 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 77,129 3.0 36,911 40,218 43,903 36,216 38,651 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 69,994 2.9 33,367 36,627 38,030 32,768 35,270 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,276 3,724 2,215 2,216 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 30,707 5.4 14,976 15,731 17,459 14,300 14,843 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 13,526 14,790 12,058 12,651 447 Gasoline stations................................ 38,950 22.0 19,298 19,652 19,370 15,576 16,358 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 22,618 1.1 11,642 10,976 25,783 11,887 10,494 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 681 1,416 676 683 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,220 4,337 2,328 2,123 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,640 8,738 3,615 3,382 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,343 2,333 1,530 1,361 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 12,706 0.3 5,762 6,944 13,214 5,813 6,856 452 General merchandise stores....................... 65,029 4.9 32,908 32,121 58,972 31,444 30,550 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 28,905 -4.3 14,662 14,243 31,845 15,408 14,789 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 14,503 32,431 15,703 15,074 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 17,878 27,127 16,036 15,761 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 15,186 22,184 13,435 13,197 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,692 4,943 2,601 2,564 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 17,070 -1.4 8,434 8,636 11,900 8,727 8,580 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 29,013 11.2 13,871 15,142 18,151 12,343 13,751 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 9,460 12,875 8,203 9,087 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 53,227 4.7 26,331 26,896 29,231 25,449 25,399 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (r) Revised.TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2003
Data adjusted for seasonal variatons, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Percent Change) Feb Jan 2003 2003 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2003 2002 2002 2002 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... -1.6 +2.6 +0.3 +5.0 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -1.0 +3.6 +1.2 +5.1 Retail .................................. -1.7 +2.5 +0.4 +5.1 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -3.4 -0.6 -2.6 +5.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -3.6 -0.5 -2.9 +5.3 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -1.6 -1.5 -0.2 +1.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 +0.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -7.5 -1.9 +2.5 +6.2 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.9 +1.9 +2.6 +2.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -1.0 +1.8 +2.9 +2.7 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.1 +4.5 +1.4 +5.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ +2.7 +23.9 +3.8 +19.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -3.6 -1.5 +0.3 +2.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -1.6 -0.5 +0.8 +0.2 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.2 +3.7 +0.5 +3.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.3 -5.0 -0.2 -5.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -2.9 -2.5 +0.8 +1.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.3 +9.3 +0.4 +7.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.5 +3.5 -0.4 +5.0 Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Percent Change) Feb Jan 2003 2003 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2003 2002 2002 2002 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... -4.0 +2.6 -20.1 +5.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -4.4 +3.9 -24.7 +6.1 Retail .................................. -4.2 +2.5 -21.2 +5.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -2.5 -1.2 -1.3 +5.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -2.2 -1.2 -1.5 +5.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -4.9 -1.8 -22.7 +2.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -7.2 -1.6 -41.1 +0.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -10.7 -2.8 -3.5 +5.5 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -8.2 +1.9 -8.4 +4.1 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -8.9 +1.8 -3.7 +3.8 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -4.8 +4.7 -9.9 +6.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.8 +23.9 +1.5 +20.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +6.1 -2.1 -57.4 +4.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -17.0 -0.9 -47.4 +1.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +2.5 +4.7 -45.5 +5.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +2.9 -4.8 -55.3 -3.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -2.3 -3.4 -27.4 +0.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -8.4 +12.4 -16.6 +10.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -2.1 +3.5 -8.0 +5.9 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--FEBRUARY 2003 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
Source of Data: The Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey each month to provide an early indication of sales of retail and food service companies. The Advance Monthly Retail Survey is a voluntary survey of a sub-sample of about 5,000 firms selected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Firms responding to this survey account for approximately 65% of the dollar volume estimate. Reliability of Estimates: The reliability of the estimates is a function of sampling and nonsampling errors. The margin of sampling error, as included on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9% or ±1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ± 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value). Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. Nonsampling error, on the other hand, can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors. Although not directly measured, precautionary steps are taken to minimize nonsampling error. Additional survey information is available at www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html.
4th Quarter 2002 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
