TUESDAY, MARCH 14, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
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Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the 2004 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the results of the 2002 Census of Retail Trade. Revised unadjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on March 30, 2006. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $362.3 billion, a decrease of 1.3 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but up 6.7 percent (±0.8%) from February 2005. Total sales for the December 2005 through February 2006 period were up 7.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The December 2005 to January 2006 percent change was revised from +2.3 percent (±0.7%) to +2.9 percent (±0.4%).
Retail trade sales were down 1.3 percent (±0.8%) from January 2006, but were 6.7 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 20.5 percent (±2.0%) from February 2005 and sales of gasoline stations were up 17.7 percent (±3.0%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for March is scheduled to be released April 13, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2006
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Feb(3) Jan Dec Feb Jan Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 362,294 367,182 356,710 339,524 335,754 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 286,888 288,135 280,878 263,447 260,904 Retail ....................................... 326,744 330,925 321,590 306,254 302,973 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 92,976 90,531 87,577 86,018 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 75,406 79,047 75,832 76,077 74,850 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 69,128 72,672 69,489 70,075 68,889 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,450 9,841 9,244 8,853 8,845 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,678 8,859 8,468 8,321 8,031 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,311 6,898 6,747 6,528 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,548 1,570 1,574 1,503 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 31,714 31,249 29,118 26,317 26,566 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 27,631 25,595 23,262 23,471 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,995 44,517 44,442 42,699 42,609 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,964 39,554 39,639 38,249 38,331 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,011 2,956 2,791 2,648 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,053 18,988 18,745 17,783 17,691 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,115 15,850 15,216 15,078 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,345 34,901 33,470 29,177 28,595 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,963 17,542 17,131 16,691 16,223 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 822 820 850 807 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,291 3,165 3,053 2,994 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,191 2,105 2,097 1,986 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,045 7,040 6,904 6,683 6,548 452 General merchandise stores....................... 46,139 46,290 45,458 43,798 43,214 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,800 18,048 17,801 18,313 17,979 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 28,242 27,657 25,485 25,235 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 24,657 24,200 22,045 21,917 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,585 3,457 3,440 3,318 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,689 10,113 9,616 9,317 9,197 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,267 22,538 23,162 20,538 20,604 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 14,566 14,474 12,936 12,935 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 35,550 36,257 35,120 33,270 32,781 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 2 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Feb(2) Jan Dec Feb Jan Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 648,432 8.0 321,002 327,430 415,304 301,281 299,014 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 512,714 9.6 252,929 259,785 342,544 232,531 235,486 Retail ....................................... 582,510 8.0 288,509 294,001 379,236 270,872 268,560 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 79,118 140,871 75,107 73,268 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 135,718 2.6 68,073 67,645 72,760 68,750 63,528 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 124,267 2.2 62,423 61,844 66,709 63,348 58,211 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 51,483 56,699 52,020 48,779 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,801 6,051 5,402 5,317 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 17,216 9.0 8,477 8,739 11,333 7,932 7,863 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,845 5,501 4,605 4,482 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,894 5,832 3,327 3,381 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 16,155 7.9 7,770 8,385 13,795 7,425 7,541 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,902 11,610 6,018 6,104 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,483 2,185 1,407 1,437 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 49,695 20.4 24,904 24,791 25,959 20,644 20,640 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 22,823 23,419 18,796 18,941 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 83,368 4.1 40,809 42,559 49,544 38,659 41,416 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 74,894 3.1 36,487 38,407 42,691 34,883 37,794 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,493 4,254 2,333 2,230 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 36,994 7.6 18,177 18,817 21,069 16,965 17,426 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,034 17,800 14,501 14,957 447 Gasoline stations................................ 61,084 19.4 29,743 31,341 31,930 25,355 25,793 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 26,994 3.8 14,026 12,968 30,410 13,904 12,090 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 649 1,427 651 649 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,577 4,823 2,461 2,347 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,636 11,114 4,802 4,335 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,643 2,856 1,797 1,509 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 12,366 7.0 5,657 6,709 12,421 5,340 6,214 452 General merchandise stores....................... 78,763 6.2 39,688 39,075 67,917 37,515 36,623 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 28,515 -2.0 14,524 13,991 31,054 14,915 14,169 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 14,091 31,312 15,071 14,317 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 25,084 36,863 22,600 22,454 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 22,216 31,533 19,686 19,813 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,868 5,330 2,914 2,641 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 17,955 7.4 8,688 9,267 11,926 8,462 8,256 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 46,202 12.4 22,497 23,705 30,172 19,921 21,170 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 14,508 19,554 11,591 12,443 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 65,922 8.3 32,493 33,429 36,068 30,409 30,454 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2006
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Feb Jan 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2006 2005 2005 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -1.3 +6.7 +2.9 +9.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.4 +8.9 +2.6 +10.4 Retail .................................. -1.3 +6.7 +2.9 +9.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -4.6 -0.9 +4.2 +5.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -4.9 -1.4 +4.6 +5.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -4.0 +6.7 +6.5 +11.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -2.0 +4.3 +4.6 +10.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.5 +20.5 +7.3 +17.6 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +1.1 +5.4 +0.2 +4.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.0 +4.5 -0.2 +3.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.3 +7.1 +1.3 +7.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.6 +17.7 +4.3 +22.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -3.3 +1.6 +2.4 +8.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.1 +5.4 +2.0 +7.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.3 +5.3 +1.8 +7.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.4 -2.8 +1.4 +0.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -4.2 +4.0 +5.2 +10.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +3.2 +13.3 -2.7 +9.4 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -1.9 +6.9 +3.2 +10.6 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Feb Jan 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2006 2005 2005 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -2.0 +6.5 -21.2 +9.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -2.6 +8.8 -24.2 +10.3 Retail .................................. -1.9 +6.5 -22.5 +9.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.6 -1.0 -7.0 +6.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +0.9 -1.5 -7.3 +6.2 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -3.0 +6.9 -22.9 +11.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -7.3 +4.6 -39.2 +11.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +0.5 +20.6 -4.5 +20.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -4.1 +5.6 -14.1 +2.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -5.0 +4.6 -10.0 +1.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -3.4 +7.1 -10.7 +8.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -5.1 +17.3 -1.8 +21.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +8.2 +0.9 -57.4 +7.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -15.7 +5.9 -46.0 +8.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.6 +5.8 -42.5 +6.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +3.8 -2.6 -54.9 -1.3 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -6.2 +2.7 -22.3 +12.2 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -5.1 +12.9 -21.4 +12.0 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -2.8 +6.9 -7.3 +9.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--FEBRUARY 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.
(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
Current
Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales 
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
