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FOR WIRE TRANSMISION 8:30 A.M. ET., Thursday, April 12, 2001

ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES

March 2001

Special Notice:

On June 13 with the release of the advance monthly retail sales estimates for May 2001, we will begin using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) in place of the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In addition, we will restate the unadjusted and adjusted data series on a NAICS basis beginning with January 1992 through April 2001. These data series will also be revised based on the results of the 1999 Annual Retail Trade Survey, which was conducted on a NAICS basis, and will be released on June 1, 2001. For further information on NAICS, including publication stubs for the new release, see our web site at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/naics.html


The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for March, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $274.1 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but up 1.9 percent (±0.9%) from March 2000. Total sales for the January through March period were up 3.1 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The January to February 2001 percent change was revised from -0.2 percent (±0.4%) to unchanged (±0.3%).

Durable goods decreased 0.7 percent (±1.4%) from February and were 1.0 percent (±1.8%) below last year. Building materials sales were down 3.7 percent (±4.5%) from March a year ago.

Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent (±0.6%) from February and were up 3.9 percent from March 2000. Drug store sales were up 13.5 percent from last year. Eating and drinking places sales were up 4.6 percent from March a year ago.

The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys.

Percent Change in Retail Sales

(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

   Month to month percent change   

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for April is scheduled to be released May 11, 2001 at 8:30 a.m.

Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 457-2713 or (301) 457-2666.

This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--March 2001

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2001 2001 2001 SIC Kind of business Mar Feb Jan code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 274,093 274,779 274,912 Total (excl. auto dealers). 207,180 207,312 207,632 Durable goods, total........ 111,687 112,485 111,932 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,541 15,728 15,427 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 12,519 12,309 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,385 1,309 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 66,913 67,467 67,280 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 63,430 63,909 63,815 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,558 3,465 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,326 14,425 14,454 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 7,049 7,088 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,288 6,290 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 162,406 162,294 162,980 53 General merchandise group stores.. 34,444 34,337 34,667 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 26,625 26,512 26,817 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 26,965 27,372 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,507 1,547 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 6,318 6,303 54 Food stores....................... 41,465 41,563 41,270 541 Grocery stores.................. 39,262 39,350 39,059 554 Gasoline service stations......... 17,710 18,064 18,159 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 12,304 12,391 12,323 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 976 973 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ (*) 3,491 3,453 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,823 1,826 58 Eating and drinking places........ 26,588 26,422 26,635 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 12,004 11,829 11,723 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,612 2,635 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 8,946 9,112 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 71,143 71,274 594 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business code Mar(r) Feb(r) Retail trade, total........... 269,108 266,799 Total (excl. auto dealers). 201,690 198,627 Durable goods, total........ 112,776 112,663 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 16,137 15,201 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 12,775 11,968 525 Hardware stores................. 1,344 1,281 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 67,418 68,172 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 63,909 64,695 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,509 3,477 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,489 14,418 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,966 6,929 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 6,440 6,469 5722 Household appliance stores.... (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 156,332 154,136 53 General merchandise group stores.. 33,410 33,181 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 26,024 25,867 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 26,398 26,366 533 Variety stores.................. 1,311 1,302 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 6,075 6,012 54 Food stores....................... 39,678 39,198 541 Grocery stores.................. 37,597 37,136 554 Gasoline service stations......... 18,554 17,609 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,827 11,625 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 937 925 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ 3,316 3,153 565 Family clothing stores.......... (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,817 1,814 58 Eating and drinking places........ 25,428 25,046 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,576 10,434 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,455 2,435 5961 Total mail order................... 8,777 8,602 53,56,57, GAF................................ 68,987 68,444 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--March 2001

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2001 2001 2001 SIC Kind of business Mar Feb Jan code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 277,607 243,780 244,944 Total (excl. auto dealers). 203,771 180,152 183,965 Durable goods, total........ 116,502 101,355 98,763 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 14,888 11,910 11,891 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 9,752 9,773 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,054 1,072 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 73,836 63,628 60,979 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 70,280 60,586 57,944 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) 51,460 49,351 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,042 3,035 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,183 12,929 13,559 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,238 6,450 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 5,735 6,158 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) 909 971 Nondurable goods, total..... 161,105 142,425 146,181 53 General merchandise group stores.. 32,148 27,576 26,779 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,681 21,077 20,408 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 21,435 20,751 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,287 1,146 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 5,212 5,225 54 Food stores....................... 41,794 37,536 39,419 541 Grocery stores.................. 39,655 35,533 37,458 554 Gasoline service stations......... 17,374 15,896 16,852 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,849 9,540 8,784 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 739 780 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) 2,723 2,500 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) 3,591 3,309 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,484 1,333 58 Eating and drinking places........ 27,519 24,097 24,238 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 12,244 11,131 11,582 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,189 2,250 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 7,613 8,620 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 58,267 57,045 594 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business code Mar Feb Retail trade, total........... 273,112 244,951 Total (excl. auto dealers). 198,200 178,248 Durable goods, total........ 118,242 105,562 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,698 12,113 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 12,481 9,790 525 Hardware stores................. 1,270 1,003 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 74,912 66,703 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 71,322 63,595 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... 60,418 54,306 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,590 3,108 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,285 13,436 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,952 6,382 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 6,279 6,120 5722 Household appliance stores.... 975 892 Nondurable goods, total..... 154,870 139,389 53 General merchandise group stores.. 31,200 27,308 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,124 21,056 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 24,576 21,456 533 Variety stores.................. 1,268 1,142 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,808 5,110 54 Food stores....................... 39,770 36,506 541 Grocery stores.................. 37,747 34,574 554 Gasoline service stations......... 18,313 15,971 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,291 9,147 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 833 718 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ 3,223 2,513 565 Family clothing stores.......... 4,299 3,499 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,812 1,513 58 Eating and drinking places........ 25,962 23,643 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,851 10,152 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,327 2,101 5961 Total mail order................... 8,953 7,690 53,56,57, GAF................................ 64,722 57,756 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1C. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--March 2001

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 3 month total Change SIC Kind of business 2001 from code 2000 Retail trade, total........... 766,331 2.5 Total (excl. auto dealers). 567,888 3.6 Durable goods, total........ 316,620 -0.6 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 38,689 -1.2 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) (*) 525 Hardware stores................. (*) (*) 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 198,443 -0.7 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 188,810 -0.7 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (*) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) (*) 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 40,671 -0.7 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) (*) 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) (*) 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (*) Nondurable goods, total..... 449,711 4.7 53 General merchandise group stores.. 86,503 3.0 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 66,166 1.9 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) (*) 533 Variety stores.................. (*) (*) 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) (*) 54 Food stores....................... 118,749 4.7 541 Grocery stores.................. 112,646 4.6 554 Gasoline service stations......... 50,122 1.1 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 30,173 5.5 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) (*) 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) (*) 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (*) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) (*) 58 Eating and drinking places........ 75,854 4.6 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 34,957 12.5 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) (*) 5961 Total mail order................... (*) (*) 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) (*) 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--March 2001

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Mar Feb 2001 2001 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Feb Mar Jan Feb CODE 2001 2000 2001 2000 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... -0.2 +1.9 0.0 +3.0 Total (excl. auto dealers). -0.1 +2.7 -0.2 +4.4 Durable goods, total........ -0.7 -1.0 +0.5 -0.2 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. -1.2 -3.7 +2.0 +3.5 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ -0.8 -0.7 +0.3 -1.0 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. -0.7 -0.7 +0.1 -1.2 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -0.7 -1.1 -0.2 0.0 Nondurable goods, total..... +0.1 +3.9 -0.4 +5.3 53 General merchandise group stores.. +0.3 +3.1 -1.0 +3.5 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +0.4 +2.3 -1.1 +2.5 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) -1.5 +2.3 54 Food stores....................... -0.2 +4.5 +0.7 +6.0 541 Grocery stores.................. -0.2 +4.4 +0.7 +6.0 554 Gasoline service stations......... -2.0 -4.5 -0.5 +2.6 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... -0.7 +4.0 +0.6 +6.6 58 Eating and drinking places........ +0.6 +4.6 -0.8 +5.5 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +1.5 +13.5 +0.9 +13.4 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Mar Feb 2001 2001 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Feb Mar Jan Feb CODE 2001 2000 2001 2000 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... +13.9 +1.6 -0.5 -0.5 Total (excl. auto group).. +13.1 +2.8 -2.1 +1.1 Durable goods, total........ +14.9 -1.5 +2.6 -4.0 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. +25.0 -5.2 +0.2 -1.7 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +16.0 -1.4 +4.3 -4.6 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +16.0 -1.5 +4.6 -4.7 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. +9.7 -0.7 -4.6 -3.8 Nondurable goods, total..... +13.1 +4.0 -2.6 +2.2 53 General merchandise group stores.. +16.6 +3.0 +3.0 +1.0 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +17.1 +2.3 +3.3 +0.1 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +3.3 -0.1 54 Food stores....................... +11.3 +5.1 -4.8 +2.8 541 Grocery stores.................. +11.6 +5.1 -5.1 +2.8 554 Gasoline service stations......... +9.3 -5.1 -5.7 -0.5 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +24.2 +4.9 +8.6 +4.3 58 Eating and drinking places........ +14.2 +6.0 -0.6 +1.9 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +10.0 +12.8 -3.9 +9.6 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE:Advance Monthly Retail Sales--March 2001 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.

Reliability of Data

The Advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the Advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the Advance and because of sampling variability present in each survey. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is +/- 1.65 x 0.9% or +/- 1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value +/- 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value).

Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. They are based on two components. The first component is a measure of the average difference between the Advance and the Preliminary estimates. The second reflects the variability of the Preliminary estimate. Additionally, both the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors, among others. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize these errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured.

Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample are published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions and the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Data).


(1) ---- The coefficients of variation (CVs) for level of sales and the standard errors for trends are medians based on estimates for the preceding 12 months.

(2) ---- These columns measure the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates -- i.e., the difference between estimates of trend for the same pair of data months. The revisions for Retail trade total are based on the latest 12 months of data.


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Source: U. S. Census Bureau 
        Service Sector Statistics Division

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