FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13, 2005, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
| Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales estimates were revised based on the results of the 2003 Annual Retail Trade Survey and preliminary results from the 2002 Census of Retail Trade. The Annual Benchmark Report for Retail Trade and Food Services showing revised unadjusted and adjusted data was released on March 31, 2005 and can be found on our website at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/data/pdf/annpub05.pdf. |
Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from February and were 5.8 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 17.8 percent (±3.0%) from March 2004 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 13.4 percent (±3.5%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2005
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Mar(3) Feb Jan Mar Feb Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 339,299 338,412 336,785 320,557 313,973 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 263,529 263,139 261,623 247,099 242,409 Retail ....................................... 306,302 305,173 303,933 289,393 283,170 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 87,265 86,456 83,676 82,597 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 75,770 75,273 75,162 73,458 71,564 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 69,868 69,290 69,134 67,829 66,051 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,804 8,859 8,805 8,655 8,418 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,292 8,320 8,114 7,762 7,710 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,758 6,592 6,241 6,194 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,562 1,522 1,521 1,516 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 26,776 26,369 26,480 25,385 23,146 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 23,233 23,413 22,427 20,355 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 42,715 42,723 42,553 40,854 40,449 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 38,302 38,282 38,253 36,743 36,367 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,789 2,664 2,602 2,599 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 17,826 17,809 17,727 16,977 16,560 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,203 15,108 14,516 14,153 447 Gasoline stations................................ 29,646 29,030 28,723 25,167 25,018 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,178 16,497 16,316 15,917 15,611 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 828 809 781 755 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,996 3,005 2,940 2,894 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,068 1,993 2,037 1,991 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,789 6,738 6,696 6,592 6,672 452 General merchandise stores....................... 43,327 43,637 43,336 41,492 40,869 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,823 18,183 18,093 18,203 17,973 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 25,454 25,243 23,289 22,896 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 22,026 21,917 19,917 19,627 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,428 3,326 3,372 3,269 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,363 9,339 9,314 8,781 8,648 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 20,816 20,579 20,707 18,353 18,505 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 12,954 12,961 11,975 11,773 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 32,997 33,239 32,852 31,164 30,803 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2005
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 3 month total % Chg. 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2005 from Mar(2) Feb Jan Mar Feb Code 2004 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 946,248 6.1 346,053 301,181 299,014 322,390 285,329 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 731,173 6.9 263,234 232,453 235,486 242,659 219,259 Retail ....................................... 851,855 6.2 312,561 270,734 268,560 290,883 256,282 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 74,983 73,268 78,102 72,782 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 215,075 3.6 82,819 68,728 63,528 79,731 66,070 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 198,117 3.3 76,575 63,331 58,211 73,866 61,031 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 52,080 48,779 61,897 51,553 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,397 5,317 5,865 5,039 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 24,517 2.4 8,716 7,938 7,863 8,551 7,669 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,603 4,482 4,724 4,410 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,335 3,381 3,827 3,259 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 22,759 5.5 7,797 7,421 7,541 7,283 7,035 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,015 6,104 5,704 5,630 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,406 1,437 1,579 1,405 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 68,100 9.7 26,797 20,663 20,640 25,339 18,332 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 18,819 18,941 22,203 16,691 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 123,382 4.5 43,274 38,692 41,416 40,111 37,610 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 111,775 4.2 39,068 34,913 37,794 36,339 34,076 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,332 2,230 2,376 2,201 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 53,097 5.5 18,717 16,954 17,426 17,605 16,030 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,488 14,957 14,966 13,728 447 Gasoline stations................................ 80,813 15.4 29,735 25,285 25,793 25,243 22,266 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 41,657 4.6 15,787 13,780 12,090 14,728 13,333 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 645 649 692 606 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,466 2,347 2,943 2,431 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,788 4,335 5,468 4,475 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,797 1,509 1,992 1,750 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 17,681 -0.1 6,124 5,343 6,214 5,939 5,411 452 General merchandise stores....................... 115,792 5.8 41,649 37,520 36,623 38,621 36,211 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 45,678 -0.1 16,594 14,915 14,169 16,470 15,189 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 15,071 14,317 16,689 15,395 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 22,605 22,454 22,151 21,022 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 19,691 19,813 18,981 18,155 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,914 2,641 3,170 2,867 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 25,723 4.8 9,008 8,459 8,256 8,418 7,973 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 63,259 11.2 22,138 19,951 21,170 19,314 18,342 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 11,594 12,443 12,107 10,796 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 94,393 5.6 33,492 30,447 30,454 31,507 29,047 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2005
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Mar Feb 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.3 +5.8 +0.5 +7.8 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.1 +6.6 +0.6 +8.6 Retail .................................. +0.4 +5.8 +0.4 +7.8 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.7 +3.1 +0.1 +5.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +0.8 +3.0 +0.2 +4.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.6 +1.7 +0.6 +5.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.3 +6.8 +2.5 +7.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.5 +5.5 -0.4 +13.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 0.0 +4.6 +0.4 +5.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.1 +4.2 +0.1 +5.3 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.1 +5.0 +0.5 +7.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +2.1 +17.8 +1.1 +16.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -1.9 +1.6 +1.1 +5.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.8 +3.0 +0.6 +1.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.7 +4.4 +0.7 +6.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -2.0 -2.1 +0.5 +1.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.3 +6.6 +0.3 +8.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.2 +13.4 -0.6 +11.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.7 +5.9 +1.2 +7.9 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Mar Feb 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +14.9 +7.3 +0.7 +5.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +13.2 +8.5 -1.3 +6.0 Retail .................................. +15.4 +7.5 +0.8 +5.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +20.5 +3.9 +8.2 +4.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +20.9 +3.7 +8.8 +3.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +9.8 +1.9 +1.0 +3.5 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +5.1 +7.1 -1.6 +5.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +29.7 +5.8 +0.1 +12.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +11.8 +7.9 -6.6 +2.9 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +11.9 +7.5 -7.6 +2.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +10.4 +6.3 -2.7 +5.8 447 Gasoline stations................................ +17.6 +17.8 -2.0 +13.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +14.6 +7.2 +14.0 +3.4 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +14.6 +3.1 -14.0 -1.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +11.0 +7.8 +2.4 +3.6 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +11.3 +0.8 +5.3 -1.8 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +6.5 +7.0 +2.5 +6.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +11.0 +14.6 -5.8 +8.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +10.0 +6.3 0.0 +4.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MARCH 2005 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous months is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing.
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. (2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
4th Quarter 2004 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau Service Sector Statistics Division
