THURSDAY, APRIL 13, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
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Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales and inventories were revised based on the results of the 2004 Annual Retail Trade Survey and results from the 2002 Census of Retail Trade. The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services showing revised unadjusted and adjusted data was released on March 30, 2006 and can be found on our website at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $361.0 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and up 7.9 percent (±0.8%) from March 2005. Total sales for the January through March 2006 period were up 8.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2006 to February 2006 percent change was revised from -1.4 percent (±0.7%) to -0.8 percent (±0.4%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.7%)* from February and were 7.9 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 17.9 percent (±2.0%) from March 2005 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 14.1 percent (±4.0%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for April is scheduled to be released May 11, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2006
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Mar(3) Feb Jan Mar Feb Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 361,046 358,797 361,743 334,522 333,908 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 284,548 283,510 284,263 260,491 259,494 Retail ....................................... 326,172 324,001 326,403 302,332 301,567 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 92,193 93,001 86,568 87,032 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 76,498 75,287 77,480 74,031 74,414 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,126 68,957 71,100 68,104 68,420 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,880 9,827 10,067 8,982 9,009 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,631 8,727 9,040 8,301 8,348 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,120 7,411 6,647 6,701 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,607 1,629 1,654 1,647 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 31,124 30,766 30,634 26,402 26,006 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 27,255 27,126 23,408 22,865 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,670 44,690 44,291 42,487 42,384 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,648 39,663 39,292 38,049 37,977 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,139 3,105 2,822 2,810 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,207 18,060 17,997 17,025 17,074 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,002 14,949 14,312 14,264 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,376 34,404 35,028 30,252 29,249 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,369 17,375 17,571 16,299 16,708 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 783 787 797 802 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,145 3,251 2,939 2,994 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,149 2,221 1,968 2,083 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,167 7,127 7,168 6,744 6,719 452 General merchandise stores....................... 45,637 45,604 45,659 42,872 42,946 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,902 17,923 18,079 17,827 18,097 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 27,681 27,580 25,045 24,849 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 24,218 24,022 21,746 21,491 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,463 3,558 3,299 3,358 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,937 9,816 9,824 9,063 9,036 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 22,676 22,318 21,644 19,874 19,674 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 14,681 14,521 12,809 12,753 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 34,874 34,796 35,340 32,190 32,341 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 3 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Mar(2) Feb Jan Mar Feb Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 1,006,937 8.2 366,445 318,270 322,222 340,568 296,367 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 788,571 9.4 282,284 250,280 256,007 259,413 229,102 Retail ....................................... 906,769 8.1 330,804 286,362 289,603 307,927 266,743 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 79,720 79,023 82,785 74,916 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 218,366 3.7 84,161 67,990 66,215 81,155 67,265 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 200,192 3.4 77,489 62,268 60,435 74,914 61,852 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 50,443 49,726 60,468 50,165 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,722 5,780 6,241 5,413 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 27,643 10.5 9,870 8,844 8,929 8,910 8,081 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,878 4,854 4,856 4,581 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,966 4,075 4,054 3,500 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 24,441 6.8 8,172 7,869 8,400 7,827 7,483 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,444 6,848 6,102 6,011 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,425 1,552 1,725 1,472 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 79,304 18.6 30,914 24,009 24,381 26,326 20,279 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 21,913 22,406 23,221 18,429 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 127,258 3.9 44,404 40,531 42,323 42,860 38,414 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 114,053 3.0 39,688 36,212 38,153 38,620 34,635 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,671 2,562 2,613 2,386 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 54,035 6.2 18,935 17,229 17,871 17,876 16,289 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,372 14,904 14,985 13,665 447 Gasoline stations................................ 95,383 17.5 34,273 29,725 31,385 29,949 25,388 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 43,791 4.9 16,288 14,533 12,970 15,763 13,905 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 606 620 752 619 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,541 2,536 3,065 2,422 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,046 4,699 6,081 4,888 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,870 1,681 2,031 1,804 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 19,247 7.9 6,615 5,744 6,888 6,130 5,389 452 General merchandise stores....................... 121,220 6.2 43,249 39,430 38,541 41,027 36,977 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 45,358 -0.6 16,575 14,777 14,006 16,561 14,906 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 15,136 14,337 16,995 15,308 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 24,653 24,535 24,466 22,071 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 21,699 21,692 21,246 19,213 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,954 2,843 3,220 2,858 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 27,638 10.3 9,649 8,988 9,001 8,754 8,264 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 68,443 12.9 24,274 21,470 22,699 21,350 19,009 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 13,154 14,347 13,142 11,465 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 100,168 9.0 35,641 31,908 32,619 32,641 29,624 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2006
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Mar Feb 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.6 +7.9 -0.8 +7.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.4 +9.2 -0.3 +9.3 Retail .................................. +0.7 +7.9 -0.7 +7.4 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +1.6 +3.3 -2.8 +1.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +1.7 +3.0 -3.0 +0.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.5 +10.0 -2.4 +9.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.1 +4.0 -3.5 +4.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.2 +17.9 +0.4 +18.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 0.0 +5.1 +0.9 +5.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 0.0 +4.2 +0.9 +4.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.8 +6.9 +0.4 +5.8 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.1 +13.6 -1.8 +17.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 0.0 +6.6 -1.1 +4.0 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.6 +6.3 -0.6 +6.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.1 +6.4 -0.1 +6.2 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.1 +0.4 -0.9 -1.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.2 +9.6 -0.1 +8.6 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.6 +14.1 +3.1 +13.4 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.2 +8.3 -1.5 +7.6 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Mar Feb 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +15.1 +7.6 -1.2 +7.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +12.8 +8.8 -2.2 +9.2 Retail .................................. +15.5 +7.4 -1.1 +7.4 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +23.8 +3.7 +2.7 +1.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +24.4 +3.4 +3.0 +0.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +11.6 +10.8 -1.0 +9.4 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +3.9 +4.4 -6.3 +5.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +28.8 +17.4 -1.5 +18.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +9.6 +3.6 -4.2 +5.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +9.6 +2.8 -5.1 +4.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +9.9 +5.9 -3.6 +5.8 447 Gasoline stations................................ +15.3 +14.4 -5.3 +17.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +12.1 +3.3 +12.1 +4.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +15.2 +7.9 -16.6 +6.6 452 General merchandise stores....................... +9.7 +5.4 +2.3 +6.6 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +12.2 +0.1 +5.5 -0.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +7.4 +10.2 -0.1 +8.8 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +13.1 +13.7 -5.4 +12.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +11.7 +9.2 -2.2 +7.7 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MARCH 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales 
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division