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                                                                 CB-00-79
FOR WIRE TRANSMISION 8:30 A.M. ET., Thursday, May 11, 2000

ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES

April 2000

Notice of Revised Data: Monthly retail sales data was revised based on the results of the 1998 Annual Retail Trade Survey. The Annual Benchmark Report for Retail Trade showing revised data was released on April 28, 2000.

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for April, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $266.0 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but up 9.7 percent (±0.9%) from April 1999. Total sales for the February through April period were up 10.3 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2000 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (±0.7%) to +0.5 percent (±0.4%).

Durable goods decreased 0.6 percent (±1.4%) from March but were 10.2 percent above last year. Automotive sales were up 10.7 percent from April a year ago, while furniture sales were up 10.8 percent from last year.

Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent (±0.6%) from March and were up 9.3 percent from April 1999. Gasoline sales were up 23.2 percent from April a year ago, while drug store sales were up 7.8 percent from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys.

Percent Change in Retail Sales

(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

   Month to month percent change   

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for May is scheduled to be released June 13, 2000 at 8:30 a.m.

Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 457-2713 or (301) 457-2666.

This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--April 2000

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2000 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business Apr Mar Feb code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 265,995 266,510 265,054 Total (excl. auto dealers). 199,667 199,706 197,300 Durable goods, total........ 111,147 111,762 112,034 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,693 15,949 15,222 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 12,620 12,026 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,341 1,285 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 66,328 66,804 67,754 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 62,923 63,352 64,306 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,452 3,448 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,446 14,407 14,332 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,924 6,881 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,427 6,420 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 154,848 154,748 153,020 53 General merchandise group stores.. 33,317 33,192 32,947 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 25,969 25,859 25,677 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 26,328 26,222 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,311 1,298 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 6,022 5,972 54 Food stores....................... 39,771 39,374 39,058 541 Grocery stores.................. 37,763 37,348 37,041 554 Gasoline service stations......... 17,751 18,177 17,435 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,761 11,862 11,676 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 942 933 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ (*) 3,264 3,129 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,836 1,822 58 Eating and drinking places........ 24,859 24,969 24,680 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,667 10,588 10,443 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,437 2,419 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 8,503 8,326 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 68,647 68,127 594 1999 1999 1999 1999 SIC Kind of business code Apr(r) Mar(r) Retail trade, total........... 242,494 240,476 Total (excl. auto dealers). 182,560 180,815 Durable goods, total........ 100,864 100,399 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 14,768 14,563 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 11,313 11,242 525 Hardware stores................. 1,328 1,309 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 59,934 59,661 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 56,616 56,393 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,318 3,268 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,033 13,040 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,238 6,261 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,771 5,754 5722 Household appliance stores.... (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 141,630 140,077 53 General merchandise group stores.. 31,007 31,136 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,370 24,506 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 24,851 24,941 533 Variety stores.................. 1,140 1,117 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,497 5,513 54 Food stores....................... 37,427 37,204 541 Grocery stores.................. 35,519 35,320 554 Gasoline service stations......... 14,404 13,801 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,233 11,063 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 933 906 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ 3,073 3,071 565 Family clothing stores.......... (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,812 1,746 58 Eating and drinking places........ 23,141 22,840 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,892 9,760 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,275 2,211 5961 Total mail order................... 7,064 6,848 53,56,57, GAF................................ 63,833 63,839 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--April 2000

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2000 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business Apr Mar Feb code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 259,242 270,900 243,015 Total (excl. auto dealers). 193,640 196,718 176,926 Durable goods, total........ 108,217 117,062 104,564 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 16,666 15,576 12,029 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 12,418 9,741 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,262 997 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 65,602 74,182 66,089 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 62,231 70,637 63,020 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) 59,910 53,919 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,545 3,069 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,001 14,162 13,340 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,903 6,337 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,241 6,080 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) 975 889 Nondurable goods, total..... 151,025 153,838 138,451 53 General merchandise group stores.. 31,638 31,178 27,287 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,826 24,126 21,055 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 24,575 21,454 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,259 1,132 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 5,793 5,100 54 Food stores....................... 39,282 39,555 36,340 541 Grocery stores.................. 37,234 37,572 34,448 554 Gasoline service stations......... 17,396 18,159 15,831 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,655 11,283 9,127 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 825 715 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) 3,176 2,481 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) 4,328 3,523 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,840 1,512 58 Eating and drinking places........ 24,958 25,493 23,273 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,528 10,842 10,140 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,303 2,080 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 8,886 7,577 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 64,459 57,523 594 1999 1999 SIC Kind of business code Apr Mar Retail trade, total........... 240,882 242,654 Total (excl. auto dealers). 178,094 177,016 Durable goods, total........ 102,810 104,381 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 16,359 14,165 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 12,286 11,040 525 Hardware stores................. 1,424 1,215 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 62,788 65,638 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 59,390 62,314 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... 50,197 53,353 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,398 3,324 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 11,939 12,717 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 5,901 6,192 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,136 5,558 5722 Household appliance stores.... 871 890 Nondurable goods, total..... 138,072 138,273 53 General merchandise group stores.. 28,840 28,965 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 22,664 22,693 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 23,104 23,114 533 Variety stores.................. 1,064 1,079 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,112 5,193 54 Food stores....................... 36,737 37,248 541 Grocery stores.................. 34,844 35,355 554 Gasoline service stations......... 14,505 13,580 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 10,842 10,585 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 910 789 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ 3,113 2,973 565 Family clothing stores.......... 4,082 4,037 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,821 1,809 58 Eating and drinking places........ 23,372 22,954 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,813 10,102 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,186 2,061 5961 Total mail order................... 6,725 7,115 53,56,57, GAF................................ 58,871 59,637 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1C. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--April 2000

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 4 month total Change SIC Kind of business 2000 from code 1999 Retail trade, total........... 1,001,367 11.0 Total (excl. auto dealers). 737,735 10.4 Durable goods, total........ 423,744 11.5 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 55,558 5.8 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) (*) 525 Hardware stores................. (*) (*) 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 263,632 12.5 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 250,702 12.9 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (*) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) (*) 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 53,646 11.7 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) (*) 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) (*) 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (*) Nondurable goods, total..... 577,623 10.6 53 General merchandise group stores.. 115,578 8.4 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 89,761 7.7 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) (*) 533 Variety stores.................. (*) (*) 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) (*) 54 Food stores....................... 152,168 5.9 541 Grocery stores.................. 144,468 5.8 554 Gasoline service stations......... 66,524 26.9 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 40,211 6.2 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) (*) 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) (*) 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (*) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) (*) 58 Eating and drinking places........ 96,344 9.5 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 41,575 8.1 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) (*) 5961 Total mail order................... (*) (*) 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) (*) 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--April 2000

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Apr Mar 2000 2000 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Mar Apr Feb Mar CODE 2000 1999 2000 1999 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... -0.2 +9.7 +0.5 +10.8 Total (excl. auto dealers). 0.0 +9.4 +1.2 +10.4 Durable goods, total........ -0.6 +10.2 -0.2 +11.3 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. -1.6 +6.3 +4.8 +9.5 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ -0.7 +10.7 -1.4 +12.0 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. -0.7 +11.1 -1.5 +12.3 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. +0.3 +10.8 +0.5 +10.5 Nondurable goods, total..... +0.1 +9.3 +1.1 +10.5 53 General merchandise group stores.. +0.4 +7.4 +0.7 +6.6 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +0.4 +6.6 +0.7 +5.5 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +0.4 +5.6 54 Food stores....................... +1.0 +6.3 +0.8 +5.8 541 Grocery stores.................. +1.1 +6.3 +0.8 +5.7 554 Gasoline service stations......... -2.3 +23.2 +4.3 +31.7 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... -0.9 +4.7 +1.6 +7.2 58 Eating and drinking places........ -0.4 +7.4 +1.2 +9.3 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +0.7 +7.8 +1.4 +8.5 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Apr Mar 2000 2000 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Mar Apr Feb Mar CODE 2000 1999 2000 1999 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... -4.3 +7.6 +11.5 +11.6 Total (excl. auto group).. -1.6 +8.7 +11.2 +11.1 Durable goods, total........ -7.6 +5.3 +12.0 +12.1 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. +7.0 +1.9 +29.5 +10.0 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ -11.6 +4.5 +12.2 +13.0 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. -11.9 +4.8 +12.1 +13.4 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -8.2 +8.9 +6.2 +11.4 Nondurable goods, total..... -1.8 +9.4 +11.1 +11.3 53 General merchandise group stores.. +1.5 +9.7 +14.3 +7.6 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +2.9 +9.5 +14.6 +6.3 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +14.5 +6.3 54 Food stores....................... -0.7 +6.9 +8.8 +6.2 541 Grocery stores.................. -0.9 +6.9 +9.1 +6.3 554 Gasoline service stations......... -4.2 +19.9 +14.7 +33.7 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +3.3 +7.5 +23.6 +6.6 58 Eating and drinking places........ -2.1 +6.8 +9.5 +11.1 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... -2.9 +7.3 +6.9 +7.3 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE:Advance Monthly Retail Sales--April 2000 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.

Reliability of Data

The Advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the Advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the Advance and because of sampling variability present in each survey. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is +/- 1.65 x 0.9% or +/- 1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value +/- 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value).

Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. They are based on two components. The first component is a measure of the average difference between the Advance and the Preliminary estimates. The second reflects the variability of the Preliminary estimate. Additionally, both the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors, among others. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize these errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured.

Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample are published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions and the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Data).


(1) ---- The coefficients of variation (CVs) for level of sales and the standard errors for trends are medians based on estimates for the preceding 12 months.

(2) ---- These columns measure the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates -- i.e., the difference between estimates of trend for the same pair of data months. The revisions for Retail trade total are based on the latest 12 months of data.


o 1st Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales 1st Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales


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Source: U. S. Census Bureau 
        Service Sector Statistics Division

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