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                                                                                             CB-00-92
FOR WIRE TRANSMISION 8:30 A.M. ET., Tuesday, June 13, 2000

ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES

May 2000

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for May, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $266.0 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but up 7.4 percent (±0.9%) from May 1999. Total sales for the March through May period were up 9.1 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2000 percent change was revised from -0.2 percent (±0.7%) to -0.6 percent (±0.3%).

Durable goods decreased 1.0 percent (±1.4%) from April but were 5.9 percent above last year. Furniture sales were up 9.9 percent from May a year ago, while automotive sales were up 5.0 percent from last year.

Nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent (±0.6%) from April and were up 8.6 percent from May 1999. Gasoline sales were up 21.3 percent from May a year ago, while general merchandise sales were up 8.5 percent from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys.

Percent Change in Retail Sales

(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

   Month to month percent change   

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for June is scheduled to be released July 14, 2000 at 8:30 a.m.


Note: On May 26, 2000, monthly retail sales estimates were revised based on corrected results from the 1998 Annual Retail Trade Survey. The revisions affected the monthly levels, but had little or no change in the previously published month-to-month trends. Revised data are available on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/adv0400.html.

Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 457-2713 or (301) 457-2666.

This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.


TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--May 2000

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2000 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business May Apr Mar code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 265,977 266,806 268,357 Total (excl. auto dealers). 200,459 200,409 201,178 Durable goods, total........ 110,104 111,210 112,529 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,215 15,460 16,064 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 12,264 12,684 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,295 1,358 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 65,518 66,397 67,179 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 62,004 62,948 63,680 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,449 3,499 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,582 14,628 14,522 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,988 6,959 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,522 6,467 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 155,873 155,596 155,828 53 General merchandise group stores.. 33,708 33,323 33,210 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 26,219 25,943 25,856 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 26,337 26,299 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,317 1,317 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 6,063 6,037 54 Food stores....................... 40,001 40,187 39,597 541 Grocery stores.................. 37,900 38,100 37,522 554 Gasoline service stations......... 17,722 17,670 18,479 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,860 11,728 11,840 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 918 927 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ (*) 3,202 3,306 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,819 1,819 58 Eating and drinking places........ 25,190 25,308 25,403 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,713 10,637 10,597 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,418 2,437 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 8,730 8,625 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 68,960 68,866 594 1999 1999 SIC Kind of business code May(r) Apr(r) Retail trade, total........... 247,572 244,556 Total (excl. auto dealers). 185,203 184,165 Durable goods, total........ 104,000 101,905 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 14,958 15,014 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 11,420 11,432 525 Hardware stores................. 1,317 1,347 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 62,369 60,391 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 59,039 57,027 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,330 3,364 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,269 13,137 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,324 6,298 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,902 5,810 5722 Household appliance stores.... (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 143,572 142,651 53 General merchandise group stores.. 31,072 31,114 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,322 24,451 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 24,938 24,879 533 Variety stores.................. 1,164 1,155 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,586 5,508 54 Food stores....................... 38,016 37,560 541 Grocery stores.................. 36,029 35,612 554 Gasoline service stations......... 14,615 14,604 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,405 11,303 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 942 970 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ 3,125 3,117 565 Family clothing stores.......... (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,823 1,816 58 Eating and drinking places........ 23,654 23,442 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,955 9,913 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,322 2,319 5961 Total mail order................... 7,241 7,109 53,56,57, GAF................................ 64,498 64,231 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--May 2000

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2000 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business May Apr Mar code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 276,581 259,872 273,112 Total (excl. auto dealers). 204,397 193,894 198,200 Durable goods, total........ 118,839 108,325 118,242 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 18,471 16,231 15,698 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 12,571 12,481 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,356 1,270 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 72,184 65,978 74,912 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 68,452 62,570 71,322 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) 52,736 60,418 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,408 3,590 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,809 13,202 14,285 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,513 6,952 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 5,700 6,279 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) 928 975 Nondurable goods, total..... 157,742 151,547 154,870 53 General merchandise group stores.. 33,315 31,484 31,200 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 25,826 24,620 24,124 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 25,099 24,576 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,250 1,268 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 5,614 5,808 54 Food stores....................... 40,945 39,780 39,770 541 Grocery stores.................. 38,810 37,643 37,747 554 Gasoline service stations......... 18,626 17,246 18,313 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,623 11,542 11,291 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 885 833 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) 3,298 3,223 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) 4,360 4,299 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,912 1,812 58 Eating and drinking places........ 26,122 25,510 25,962 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,949 10,488 10,851 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,263 2,327 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 8,032 8,953 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 64,080 64,722 594 1999 1999 SIC Kind of business code May Apr Retail trade, total........... 254,557 242,761 Total (excl. auto dealers). 188,135 179,385 Durable goods, total........ 109,323 103,816 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 17,613 16,505 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 12,790 12,347 525 Hardware stores................. 1,515 1,432 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 66,422 63,376 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 62,995 59,935 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... 53,146 50,557 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,427 3,441 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 12,460 12,029 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,141 5,945 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,383 5,171 5722 Household appliance stores.... 897 875 Nondurable goods, total..... 145,234 138,945 53 General merchandise group stores.. 31,044 28,861 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,322 22,666 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 24,807 23,105 533 Variety stores.................. 1,142 1,073 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,580 5,122 54 Food stores....................... 38,971 36,905 541 Grocery stores.................. 36,966 34,971 554 Gasoline service stations......... 15,185 14,633 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,231 10,871 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 912 915 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ 3,291 3,154 565 Family clothing stores.......... 4,268 4,055 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,910 1,823 58 Eating and drinking places........ 24,789 23,747 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,995 9,824 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,334 2,208 5961 Total mail order................... 6,575 6,789 53,56,57, GAF................................ 62,664 59,102 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1C. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--May 2000

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 5 month total Change SIC Kind of business 2000 from code 1999 Retail trade, total........... 1,284,387 10.3 Total (excl. auto dealers). 946,318 9.9 Durable goods, total........ 545,753 10.7 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 73,877 4.7 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) (*) 525 Hardware stores................. (*) (*) 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 338,069 11.6 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 321,248 11.9 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (*) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) (*) 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 67,970 11.7 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) (*) 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) (*) 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (*) Nondurable goods, total..... 738,634 10.1 53 General merchandise group stores.. 148,801 8.0 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 115,381 7.2 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) (*) 533 Variety stores.................. (*) (*) 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) (*) 54 Food stores....................... 194,158 5.9 541 Grocery stores.................. 184,117 5.8 554 Gasoline service stations......... 85,428 25.5 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 51,766 5.2 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) (*) 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) (*) 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (*) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) (*) 58 Eating and drinking places........ 124,131 8.7 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 52,516 8.3 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) (*) 5961 Total mail order................... (*) (*) 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) (*) 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--May 2000

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) May Apr 2000 2000 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Apr May Mar Apr CODE 2000 1999 2000 1999 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... -0.3 +7.4 -0.6 +9.1 Total (excl. auto dealers). 0.0 +8.2 -0.4 +8.8 Durable goods, total........ -1.0 +5.9 -1.2 +9.1 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. -1.6 +1.7 -3.8 +3.0 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ -1.3 +5.0 -1.2 +9.9 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. -1.5 +5.0 -1.1 +10.4 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -0.3 +9.9 +0.7 +11.3 Nondurable goods, total..... +0.2 +8.6 -0.1 +9.1 53 General merchandise group stores.. +1.2 +8.5 +0.3 +7.1 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +1.1 +7.8 +0.3 +6.1 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +0.1 +5.9 54 Food stores....................... -0.5 +5.2 +1.5 +7.0 541 Grocery stores.................. -0.5 +5.2 +1.5 +7.0 554 Gasoline service stations......... +0.3 +21.3 -4.4 +21.0 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +1.1 +4.0 -0.9 +3.8 58 Eating and drinking places........ -0.5 +6.5 -0.4 +8.0 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +0.7 +7.6 +0.4 +7.3 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) May Apr 2000 2000 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Apr May Mar Apr CODE 2000 1999 2000 1999 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... +6.4 +8.7 -4.8 +7.0 Total (excl. auto group).. +5.4 +8.6 -2.2 +8.1 Durable goods, total........ +9.7 +8.7 -8.4 +4.3 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. +13.8 +4.9 +3.4 -1.7 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +9.4 +8.7 -11.9 +4.1 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +9.4 +8.7 -12.3 +4.4 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. +4.6 +10.8 -7.6 +9.8 Nondurable goods, total..... +4.1 +8.6 -2.1 +9.1 53 General merchandise group stores.. +5.8 +7.3 +0.9 +9.1 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +4.9 +6.2 +2.1 +8.6 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +2.1 +8.6 54 Food stores....................... +2.9 +5.1 0.0 +7.8 541 Grocery stores.................. +3.1 +5.0 -0.3 +7.6 554 Gasoline service stations......... +8.0 +22.7 -5.8 +17.9 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +0.7 +3.5 +2.2 +6.2 58 Eating and drinking places........ +2.4 +5.4 -1.7 +7.4 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +4.4 +9.5 -3.3 +6.8 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE:Advance Monthly Retail Sales--May 2000 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.

Reliability of Data

The Advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the Advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the Advance and because of sampling variability present in each survey. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is +/- 1.65 x 0.9% or +/- 1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value +/- 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value).

Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. They are based on two components. The first component is a measure of the average difference between the Advance and the Preliminary estimates. The second reflects the variability of the Preliminary estimate. Additionally, both the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors, among others. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize these errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured.

Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample are published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions and the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Data).


(1) ---- The coefficients of variation (CVs) for level of sales and the standard errors for trends are medians based on estimates for the preceding 12 months.

(2) ---- These columns measure the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates -- i.e., the difference between estimates of trend for the same pair of data months. The revisions for Retail trade total are based on the latest 12 months of data.


o 1st Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales 1st Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales


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Source: U. S. Census Bureau 
        Service Sector Statistics Division

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