FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
TUESDAY, JUNE 14, 2005, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $343.6 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month, but up 6.4 percent (±0.8%) from May 2004. Total sales for the March through May 2005 period were up 7.1 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2005 percent change was revised from +1.4 percent (±0.7%) to +1.5 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were down 0.5 percent (±0.7%)* from April, but were up 6.3 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 13.4 percent (±3.3%) from May 2004 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 11.9 percent (±3.6%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for June is scheduled to be released July 14, 2005 at 8:30 a.m.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2005
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business May(3) Apr Mar May Apr Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 343,623 345,339 340,075 322,966 317,103 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 267,327 267,823 264,071 249,007 246,133 Retail ....................................... 310,014 311,639 307,078 291,754 286,062 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 87,911 86,833 83,456 82,604 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 76,296 77,516 76,004 73,959 70,970 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,292 71,459 70,099 68,428 65,485 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,925 8,892 8,852 8,340 8,573 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,322 8,327 8,285 7,829 7,807 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,746 6,709 6,303 6,276 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,581 1,576 1,526 1,531 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 27,421 27,297 26,890 25,122 25,190 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 24,301 23,922 22,286 22,229 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 43,162 43,132 42,729 41,264 40,926 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 38,639 38,605 38,282 37,085 36,794 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,782 2,765 2,656 2,637 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,131 17,994 17,841 16,923 16,923 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,365 15,285 14,517 14,498 447 Gasoline stations................................ 29,963 30,439 29,791 26,425 25,223 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,599 16,736 16,292 15,692 15,457 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 824 835 768 765 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,058 2,987 2,914 2,846 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,009 1,929 1,955 1,975 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,836 6,801 6,783 6,548 6,558 452 General merchandise stores....................... 43,860 43,907 43,336 41,805 40,942 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,826 17,990 17,826 17,952 17,723 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 25,917 25,510 23,853 23,219 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 22,533 22,168 20,570 19,974 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,384 3,342 3,283 3,245 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,533 9,406 9,342 9,110 8,908 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 20,966 21,192 20,933 18,737 18,585 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 13,189 13,026 12,289 12,018 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 33,609 33,700 32,997 31,212 31,041 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2005
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 5 month total % Chg. 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2005 from May(2) Apr Mar May Apr Code 2004 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 1,643,508 6.5 353,688 343,216 346,309 332,446 318,847 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,266,439 7.1 271,888 263,149 263,385 253,704 244,520 Retail ....................................... 1,480,061 6.5 318,936 308,876 312,817 299,767 287,527 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 81,409 83,083 81,116 77,586 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 377,069 4.5 81,800 80,067 82,924 78,742 74,327 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 347,770 4.2 75,634 73,889 76,688 73,150 68,628 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 59,636 62,714 60,776 56,855 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,178 6,236 5,592 5,699 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 41,584 3.7 8,684 8,350 8,755 8,140 8,024 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,605 4,888 4,542 4,390 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,745 3,867 3,598 3,634 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 37,524 6.0 7,596 7,160 7,802 7,149 6,688 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 5,734 6,152 5,786 5,284 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,426 1,650 1,363 1,404 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 130,631 9.1 32,161 30,398 26,788 28,965 28,715 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 25,395 23,683 24,024 23,696 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 209,057 4.0 43,889 41,958 43,135 42,544 40,404 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 188,546 3.7 39,334 37,640 38,895 38,272 36,352 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,671 2,555 2,659 2,529 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 89,053 5.6 18,276 17,778 18,608 17,025 17,008 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,181 15,896 14,561 14,541 447 Gasoline stations................................ 144,080 16.2 31,761 31,261 29,910 28,143 25,828 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 73,463 4.6 15,997 15,710 15,762 15,357 15,032 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 761 791 741 736 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,150 3,115 3,033 3,051 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,855 5,975 5,532 5,469 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,057 2,022 2,016 2,139 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 29,544 1.5 5,968 5,944 6,078 5,736 5,673 452 General merchandise stores....................... 200,399 5.2 43,256 41,393 41,612 41,780 39,274 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 79,173 -0.9 16,895 16,633 16,561 17,482 16,713 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,804 16,724 17,730 16,934 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 24,760 25,051 24,298 22,561 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 21,542 21,769 21,002 19,355 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,218 3,282 3,296 3,206 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 44,662 5.3 10,027 8,868 9,049 9,333 8,533 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 102,995 12.2 19,521 19,989 22,394 16,853 18,021 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 12,490 13,274 11,330 11,669 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 163,447 6.5 34,752 34,340 33,492 32,679 31,320 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2005
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. May Apr 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Apr May Mar Apr Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.5 +6.4 +1.5 +8.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.2 +7.4 +1.4 +8.8 Retail .................................. -0.5 +6.3 +1.5 +8.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -1.6 +3.2 +2.0 +9.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -1.6 +2.7 +1.9 +9.1 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.4 +7.0 +0.5 +3.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.1 +6.3 +0.5 +6.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +0.5 +9.2 +1.5 +8.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.1 +4.6 +0.9 +5.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.1 +4.2 +0.8 +4.9 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.8 +7.1 +0.9 +6.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.6 +13.4 +2.2 +20.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.8 +5.8 +2.7 +8.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.5 +4.4 +0.3 +3.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.1 +4.9 +1.3 +7.2 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.9 -0.7 +0.9 +1.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.4 +4.6 +0.7 +5.6 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -1.1 +11.9 +1.2 +14.0 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.3 +7.7 +2.1 +8.6 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. May Apr 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Apr May Mar Apr Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +3.1 +6.4 -0.9 +7.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +3.3 +7.2 -0.1 +7.6 Retail .................................. +3.3 +6.4 -1.3 +7.4 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +2.2 +3.9 -3.4 +7.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +2.4 +3.4 -3.6 +7.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +4.0 +6.7 -4.6 +4.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +6.1 +6.3 -8.2 +7.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +5.8 +11.0 +13.5 +5.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +4.6 +3.2 -2.7 +3.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +4.5 +2.8 -3.2 +3.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +2.8 +7.3 -4.5 +4.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.6 +12.9 +4.5 +21.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +1.8 +4.2 -0.3 +4.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.4 +4.0 -2.2 +4.8 452 General merchandise stores....................... +4.5 +3.5 -0.5 +5.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.6 -3.4 +0.4 -0.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +13.1 +7.4 -2.0 +3.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -2.3 +15.8 -10.7 +10.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.2 +6.3 +2.5 +9.6 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MAY 2005 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous months is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
1st Quarter 2005 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
