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                                                                 CB-00-108
FOR WIRE TRANSMISION 8:30 A.M. ET., Friday, July 14, 2000

ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES

June 2000

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for June, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $269.3 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 8.7 percent (±0.9%) from June 1999. Total sales for the April through June period were up 8.7 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2000 percent change was revised from -0.3 percent (±0.7%) to +0.3 percent (±0.3%).

Durable goods increased 0.7 percent (±1.4%) from May and were 7.9 percent above last year. Furniture sales were up 9.2 percent from June a year ago, while automotive sales were up 8.2 percent from last year.

Nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent (±0.6%) from May and were up 9.2 percent from June 1999. Gasoline sales were up 23.0 percent from June a year ago, while eating and drinking places sales were up 7.6 percent from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys.

Percent Change in Retail Sales

(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

   Month to month percent change   

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for July is scheduled to be released August 11, 2000 at 8:30 a.m.

Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 457-2713 or (301) 457-2666.

This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--June 2000

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2000 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business Jun May Apr code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 269,282 267,882 267,119 Total (excl. auto dealers). 201,965 201,582 200,598 Durable goods, total........ 111,979 111,243 111,202 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,421 15,665 15,445 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 12,395 12,224 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,316 1,304 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 67,317 66,300 66,521 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 63,832 62,786 63,084 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,514 3,437 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,604 14,654 14,581 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 7,090 7,006 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,451 6,457 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 157,303 156,639 155,917 53 General merchandise group stores.. 33,643 33,545 33,281 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 26,067 26,084 25,898 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 26,728 26,410 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,345 1,320 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 6,116 6,063 54 Food stores....................... 40,384 40,155 40,249 541 Grocery stores.................. 38,238 38,020 38,148 554 Gasoline service stations......... 17,984 17,761 17,756 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,645 11,866 11,744 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 945 934 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ (*) 3,271 3,212 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,821 1,819 58 Eating and drinking places........ 25,478 25,326 25,369 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,840 10,932 10,676 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,471 2,431 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 8,690 8,709 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 69,536 68,911 594 1999 1999 SIC Kind of business code Jun(r) May(r) Retail trade, total........... 247,826 247,325 Total (excl. auto dealers). 185,612 185,127 Durable goods, total........ 103,798 103,821 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 14,758 14,934 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 11,346 11,389 525 Hardware stores................. 1,292 1,321 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 62,214 62,198 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 58,918 58,874 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,296 3,324 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,378 13,285 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,389 6,318 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,958 5,922 5722 Household appliance stores.... (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 144,028 143,504 53 General merchandise group stores.. 31,483 30,994 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,711 24,249 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 25,080 24,855 533 Variety stores.................. 1,193 1,159 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,579 5,586 54 Food stores....................... 37,752 38,014 541 Grocery stores.................. 35,802 36,029 554 Gasoline service stations......... 14,617 14,657 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,292 11,391 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 936 931 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ 3,077 3,116 565 Family clothing stores.......... (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,818 1,823 58 Eating and drinking places........ 23,688 23,654 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,096 9,926 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,311 2,315 5961 Total mail order................... 7,532 7,265 53,56,57, GAF................................ 64,881 64,393 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--June 2000

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2000 2000 2000 SIC Kind of business Jun May Apr code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 277,309 279,463 260,159 Total (excl. auto dealers). 202,958 206,029 194,062 Durable goods, total........ 120,252 120,784 108,498 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 17,888 19,234 16,275 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 14,515 12,566 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,529 1,373 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 74,351 73,434 66,097 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 70,598 69,692 62,705 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) 58,856 52,786 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,742 3,392 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,859 13,901 13,200 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,984 6,516 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 5,916 5,695 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) 1,072 928 Nondurable goods, total..... 157,057 158,679 151,661 53 General merchandise group stores.. 32,620 33,214 31,492 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,946 25,771 24,629 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 26,268 25,109 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,309 1,249 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 6,134 5,614 54 Food stores....................... 40,826 41,103 39,759 541 Grocery stores.................. 38,659 38,932 37,614 554 Gasoline service stations......... 19,117 18,614 17,259 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,191 11,597 11,546 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 912 895 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) 3,444 3,295 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) 4,400 4,361 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,896 1,912 58 Eating and drinking places........ 26,472 26,288 25,547 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,732 11,238 10,505 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,488 2,263 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 8,282 8,038 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 67,492 64,091 594 1999 1999 SIC Kind of business code Jun May Retail trade, total........... 252,350 254,557 Total (excl. auto dealers). 184,468 188,135 Durable goods, total........ 110,776 109,323 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 17,225 17,613 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 12,935 12,790 525 Hardware stores................. 1,468 1,515 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 67,882 66,422 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 64,339 62,995 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... 54,449 53,146 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,543 3,427 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 12,759 12,460 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,280 6,141 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,553 5,383 5722 Household appliance stores.... 1,042 897 Nondurable goods, total..... 141,574 145,234 53 General merchandise group stores.. 29,982 31,044 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 23,253 24,322 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 23,737 24,807 533 Variety stores.................. 1,117 1,142 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,612 5,580 54 Food stores....................... 37,714 38,971 541 Grocery stores.................. 35,766 36,966 554 Gasoline service stations......... 15,289 15,185 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 10,584 11,231 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 903 912 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ 2,985 3,291 565 Family clothing stores.......... 4,076 4,268 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,814 1,910 58 Eating and drinking places........ 24,257 24,789 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,914 9,995 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,274 2,334 5961 Total mail order................... 6,824 6,575 53,56,57, GAF................................ 61,346 62,664 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1C. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--June 2000

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 6 month total Change SIC Kind of business 2000 from code 1999 Retail trade, total........... 1,564,865 10.5 Total (excl. auto dealers). 1,151,076 10.1 Durable goods, total........ 668,123 10.6 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 92,572 5.5 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) (*) 525 Hardware stores................. (*) (*) 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 413,789 11.6 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 393,221 11.9 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (*) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) (*) 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 81,919 11.3 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) (*) 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) (*) 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (*) Nondurable goods, total..... 896,742 10.4 53 General merchandise group stores.. 181,328 8.1 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 140,281 7.1 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) (*) 533 Variety stores.................. (*) (*) 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) (*) 54 Food stores....................... 235,121 6.4 541 Grocery stores.................. 222,869 6.2 554 Gasoline service stations......... 104,546 25.4 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 62,935 5.3 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) (*) 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) (*) 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (*) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) (*) 58 Eating and drinking places........ 150,806 8.9 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 63,554 8.8 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) (*) 5961 Total mail order................... (*) (*) 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) (*) 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--June 2000

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Jun May 2000 2000 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business May Jun Apr May CODE 2000 1999 2000 1999 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... +0.5 +8.7 +0.3 +8.3 Total (excl. auto dealers). +0.2 +8.8 +0.5 +8.9 Durable goods, total........ +0.7 +7.9 0.0 +7.1 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. -1.6 +4.5 +1.4 +4.9 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +1.5 +8.2 -0.3 +6.6 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +1.7 +8.3 -0.5 +6.6 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -0.3 +9.2 +0.5 +10.3 Nondurable goods, total..... +0.4 +9.2 +0.5 +9.2 53 General merchandise group stores.. +0.3 +6.9 +0.8 +8.2 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). -0.1 +5.5 +0.7 +7.6 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +1.2 +7.5 54 Food stores....................... +0.6 +7.0 -0.2 +5.6 541 Grocery stores.................. +0.6 +6.8 -0.3 +5.5 554 Gasoline service stations......... +1.3 +23.0 0.0 +21.2 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... -1.9 +3.1 +1.0 +4.2 58 Eating and drinking places........ +0.6 +7.6 -0.2 +7.1 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... -0.8 +7.4 +2.4 +10.1 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Jun May 2000 2000 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business May Jun Apr May CODE 2000 1999 2000 1999 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... -0.8 +9.9 +7.4 +9.8 Total (excl. auto group).. -1.5 +10.0 +6.2 +9.5 Durable goods, total........ -0.4 +8.6 +11.3 +10.5 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. -7.0 +3.8 +18.2 +9.2 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +1.2 +9.5 +11.1 +10.6 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +1.3 +9.7 +11.1 +10.6 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -0.3 +8.6 +5.3 +11.6 Nondurable goods, total..... -1.0 +10.9 +4.6 +9.3 53 General merchandise group stores.. -1.8 +8.8 +5.5 +7.0 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). -3.2 +7.3 +4.6 +6.0 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +4.6 +5.9 54 Food stores....................... -0.7 +8.3 +3.4 +5.5 541 Grocery stores.................. -0.7 +8.1 +3.5 +5.3 554 Gasoline service stations......... +2.7 +25.0 +7.9 +22.6 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... -3.5 +5.7 +0.4 +3.3 58 Eating and drinking places........ +0.7 +9.1 +2.9 +6.0 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... -4.5 +8.3 +7.0 +12.4 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE:Advance Monthly Retail Sales--June 2000 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.

Reliability of Data

The Advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the Advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the Advance and because of sampling variability present in each survey. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is +/- 1.65 x 0.9% or +/- 1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value +/- 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value).

Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. They are based on two components. The first component is a measure of the average difference between the Advance and the Preliminary estimates. The second reflects the variability of the Preliminary estimate. Additionally, both the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors, among others. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize these errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured.

Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample are published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions and the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Data).


(1) ---- The coefficients of variation (CVs) for level of sales and the standard errors for trends are medians based on estimates for the preceding 12 months.

(2) ---- These columns measure the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates -- i.e., the difference between estimates of trend for the same pair of data months. The revisions for Retail trade total are based on the latest 12 months of data.


o 1st Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales 1st Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales


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Source: U. S. Census Bureau 
        Service Sector Statistics Division

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