FRIDAY, JULY 14, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.8 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month, but up 5.9 percent (±0.8%) from June 2005. Total sales for the April through June 2006 period were up 6.8 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2006 percent change was unrevised from +0.1 percent (±0.2%)*.
Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from May, but were 5.7 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 20.4 percent (±2.0%) from June 2005 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 12.3 percent (±4.5%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for July is scheduled to be released August 11, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--June 2006
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jun(3) May Apr Jun May Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 363,806 364,104 363,611 343,692 338,488 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 290,084 289,335 287,240 267,257 264,452 Retail ....................................... 328,417 328,782 328,369 310,743 305,736 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 93,229 92,905 88,690 87,662 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 73,722 74,769 76,371 76,435 74,036 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 67,422 68,512 70,113 70,352 68,040 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,109 9,975 9,915 9,247 9,120 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,684 8,741 8,738 8,347 8,262 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,170 7,158 6,689 6,616 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,571 1,580 1,658 1,646 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,759 30,048 30,206 27,360 27,110 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 26,600 26,684 24,147 23,925 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 45,297 45,131 44,887 43,108 42,999 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,262 40,086 39,876 38,531 38,457 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,191 3,162 2,903 2,860 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,601 18,472 18,261 17,209 17,241 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,415 15,252 14,443 14,459 447 Gasoline stations................................ 37,775 37,368 36,678 31,372 30,725 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,681 17,620 17,555 16,848 16,585 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 795 796 798 792 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,242 3,225 3,084 3,027 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,108 2,126 2,035 2,032 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,435 7,408 7,354 6,768 6,853 452 General merchandise stores....................... 46,083 45,941 45,813 44,048 43,423 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,736 17,788 17,777 18,139 17,823 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 28,153 28,036 25,909 25,600 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 24,707 24,587 22,520 22,253 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,446 3,449 3,389 3,347 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,002 9,968 9,936 9,289 9,254 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,269 23,341 22,655 20,712 20,128 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 14,919 14,799 13,435 13,198 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 35,389 35,322 35,242 32,949 32,752 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimates (p) Preliminary estimates (r) Revised estimates (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--June 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 6 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Jun(2) May Apr Jun May Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,120,222 7.6 375,406 380,087 357,334 353,605 347,570 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,659,229 9.5 292,080 297,456 280,102 267,446 268,459 Retail ....................................... 1,910,788 7.5 338,885 343,493 321,775 320,030 313,573 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 90,302 86,846 84,515 84,275 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 460,993 1.5 83,326 82,631 77,232 86,159 79,111 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 423,357 1.2 76,591 76,117 71,024 79,638 73,007 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 60,141 55,942 64,394 58,425 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,514 6,208 6,521 6,104 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 56,526 9.8 10,079 9,766 9,033 9,127 8,792 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,015 4,753 4,812 4,644 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,751 4,280 4,315 4,148 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 48,235 6.3 8,125 8,084 7,454 7,806 7,540 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,661 6,034 6,221 6,067 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,423 1,420 1,585 1,473 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 182,619 14.1 34,047 36,370 32,846 31,404 31,891 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 30,085 27,084 26,900 26,317 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 263,186 4.8 45,639 46,486 43,968 43,309 43,796 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 235,003 3.9 40,544 41,329 39,158 38,724 39,226 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,197 2,963 2,894 2,811 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 109,552 7.1 18,489 19,100 17,804 17,020 17,448 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,001 14,947 14,241 14,661 447 Gasoline stations................................ 210,840 19.0 39,664 39,349 36,421 32,752 31,954 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 94,623 6.1 16,538 17,176 16,930 15,621 16,032 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 754 755 776 753 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,381 3,419 3,010 3,124 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,318 6,510 5,956 5,951 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,116 2,290 1,923 2,028 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 38,989 8.3 6,848 6,586 6,288 6,152 6,010 452 General merchandise stores....................... 255,277 6.2 44,691 45,308 44,151 42,701 42,706 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 95,618 -0.7 16,645 16,968 16,773 17,108 16,905 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 17,396 17,195 17,574 17,370 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 28,340 27,378 25,593 25,801 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 24,880 24,046 22,272 22,431 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,460 3,332 3,321 3,370 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 57,503 9.2 10,165 10,649 9,165 9,315 9,673 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 132,445 13.3 21,274 21,988 20,483 18,664 18,620 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 14,501 13,526 12,535 12,578 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 209,434 8.5 36,521 36,594 35,559 33,575 33,997 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimates (p) Preliminary estimates (r) Revised estimates (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--June 2006
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Jun May 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business May Jun Apr May Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.1 +5.9 +0.1 +7.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.3 +8.5 +0.7 +9.4 Retail .................................. -0.1 +5.7 +0.1 +7.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -1.4 -3.5 -2.1 +1.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -1.6 -4.2 -2.3 +0.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.3 +9.3 +0.6 +9.4 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.7 +4.0 0.0 +5.8 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -1.0 +8.8 -0.5 +10.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +5.1 +0.5 +5.0 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.4 +4.5 +0.5 +4.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.7 +8.1 +1.2 +7.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.1 +20.4 +1.9 +21.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.3 +4.9 +0.4 +6.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.4 +9.9 +0.7 +8.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.3 +4.6 +0.3 +5.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.3 -2.2 +0.1 -0.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.3 +7.7 +0.3 +7.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.3 +12.3 +3.0 +16.0 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.2 +7.4 +0.2 +7.8 (p) Preliminary estimates (r) Revised estimates (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Jun May 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business May Jun Apr May Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -1.2 +6.2 +6.4 +9.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -1.8 +9.2 +6.2 +10.8 Retail .................................. -1.3 +5.9 +6.7 +9.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.8 -3.3 +7.0 +4.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +0.6 -3.8 +7.2 +4.3 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +3.2 +10.4 +8.1 +11.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.5 +4.1 +8.5 +7.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -6.4 +8.4 +10.7 +14.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -1.8 +5.4 +5.7 +6.1 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -1.9 +4.7 +5.5 +5.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -3.2 +8.6 +7.3 +9.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +0.8 +21.1 +8.0 +23.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -3.7 +5.9 +1.5 +7.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +4.0 +11.3 +4.7 +9.6 452 General merchandise stores....................... -1.4 +4.7 +2.6 +6.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.9 -2.7 +1.2 +0.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -4.5 +9.1 +16.2 +10.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -3.2 +14.0 +7.3 +18.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.2 +8.8 +2.9 +7.6 (p) Preliminary estimates (r) Revised estimates (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JUNE 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, U.S. Census Bureau Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division