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                                                                 CB-01-134
FOR WIRE TRANSMISION 8:30 A.M. ET., Tuesday, August 14, 2001

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES

JULY 2001

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $291.7 billion, virtually unchanged (±1.0%) from the previous month, but up 3.0 percent (±1.7%) from July 2000. Total sales for the May through July period were up 3.5 percent (±1.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2001 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (±1.0%) to unchanged (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales decreased 0.1 percent (±1.0%) from June, but were 2.6 percent (±1.7%) above last year. Health and personal care stores were up 10.0 percent (±3.6%) from last year and sales of building materials and garden equipment and supplies dealers increased 7.0 percent (±5.9%) from July a year ago. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 2.9 percent (±3.5%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail and food services sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

   Month to month percent change   

The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for August is scheduled to be released September 14, 2001 at 8:30 a.m.

Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 457-2713 or (301) 457-2666.

This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.






TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--July 2001

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2001 2001 2001 2000 2000 NAICS Kind of business Jul Jun May code adv. prel. final Jul(r) Jun(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 291,672 291,603 291,691 283,308 281,701 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 220,162 219,737 220,170 213,826 212,952 Retail ....................................... 264,550 264,751 265,022 257,733 256,316 GAFO............................................. (*) 74,477 74,288 73,313 72,782 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 71,510 71,866 71,521 69,482 68,749 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 65,348 65,704 65,407 63,392 62,607 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,697 7,666 7,648 7,732 7,685 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,308 7,258 7,133 7,146 7,166 44311 Appl., T.V., & camera.......................... (*) 5,202 5,119 4,945 4,995 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,056 2,014 2,201 2,171 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,506 24,526 24,550 22,901 22,971 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 21,345 21,309 19,862 19,897 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 40,088 39,990 39,975 38,937 38,994 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 36,220 36,109 36,138 35,286 35,378 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,518 2,499 2,405 2,394 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 14,529 14,293 14,241 13,205 13,094 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 12,294 12,217 11,289 11,110 447 Gasoline stations................................ 19,890 20,756 21,531 20,659 20,495 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 14,225 14,093 14,160 13,925 13,943 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 885 883 897 866 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,539 2,557 2,707 2,703 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,815 1,830 1,821 1,813 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,169 7,085 7,037 6,741 6,641 452 General merchandise stores....................... 34,998 34,702 34,591 34,216 33,842 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 19,798 19,708 19,581 19,740 19,616 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 14,994 15,010 14,476 14,226 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 11,921 11,888 11,574 11,412 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,073 3,122 2,902 2,814 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,592 9,510 9,538 9,020 8,906 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 13,038 13,006 13,097 13,769 13,830 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 9,118 9,139 9,368 9,372 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 27,122 26,852 26,669 25,575 25,385 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--July 2001

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 7 month total Change 2001 2001 2001 2000 2000 NAICS Kind of business 2001 from Jul Jun May code 2000 adv. prel. final Jul Jun Retail & food services, total.................... 1,982,596 3.1 288,960 298,538 306,505 280,072 290,308 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,473,508 3.4 215,660 220,091 226,636 209,719 214,218 Retail ....................................... 1,796,801 2.9 260,672 270,558 278,663 253,244 263,958 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 70,712 72,346 67,754 69,371 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 509,088 2.2 73,300 78,447 79,869 70,353 76,090 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 466,633 2.5 66,916 71,946 73,321 64,153 69,494 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 60,610 61,614 55,088 59,370 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,501 6,548 6,200 6,596 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 51,196 -0.3 7,505 7,528 7,617 7,554 7,547 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,114 4,059 4,136 4,109 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,414 3,558 3,418 3,438 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 46,637 -2.2 6,859 6,793 6,551 6,712 6,760 44311 Appl., T.V., & camera.......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,838 4,638 4,698 4,645 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,955 1,913 2,014 2,115 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 172,054 5.4 25,907 27,298 29,417 23,723 26,084 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 23,544 24,377 20,915 22,364 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 274,484 3.4 40,819 40,485 41,273 40,082 39,341 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 249,005 3.1 36,908 36,506 37,367 36,345 35,661 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,581 2,519 2,482 2,432 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 97,933 9.1 14,093 14,093 14,654 12,769 13,055 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 12,048 12,535 10,815 10,966 447 Gasoline stations................................ 143,038 2.2 21,024 22,084 22,608 21,837 21,868 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 88,230 2.5 12,549 13,123 13,971 12,551 13,002 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 848 853 802 834 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,463 2,718 2,447 2,633 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,463 4,571 4,264 4,353 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,811 1,920 1,788 1,815 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 44,179 7.7 6,488 6,727 6,458 6,090 6,244 452 General merchandise stores....................... 219,572 2.5 32,163 33,314 34,314 31,787 32,691 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 122,906 0.1 17,699 18,570 19,064 17,942 18,565 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 18,934 19,459 18,315 18,963 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 14,744 15,250 13,845 14,126 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 11,742 12,019 11,088 11,332 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,002 3,231 2,757 2,794 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 62,777 2.8 9,172 9,315 9,899 8,445 8,911 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 87,613 -0.3 10,793 11,351 12,032 11,341 12,365 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 8,215 8,490 7,963 8,613 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 185,795 4.8 28,288 27,980 27,842 26,828 26,350 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--July 2001

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Jul Jun 2001 2001 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of business Jun Jul May Jun CODE 2001 2000 2001 2000 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... 0.0 +3.0 0.0 +3.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts).......... +0.2 +3.0 -0.2 +3.2 Retail .................................. -0.1 +2.6 -0.1 +3.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -0.5 +2.9 +0.5 +4.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -0.5 +3.1 +0.5 +4.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.4 -0.5 +0.2 -0.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.7 +2.3 +1.8 +1.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.1 +7.0 -0.1 +6.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.2 +3.0 0.0 +2.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.3 +2.6 -0.1 +2.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.7 +10.0 +0.4 +9.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ -4.2 -3.7 -3.6 +1.3 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.9 +2.2 -0.5 +1.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +1.2 +6.3 +0.7 +6.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.9 +2.3 +0.3 +2.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.5 +0.3 +0.6 +0.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.9 +6.3 -0.3 +6.8 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.2 -5.3 -0.7 -6.0 722 Food services & drinking Places.................. +1.0 +6.0 +0.7 +5.8 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Jul Jun 2001 2001 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of business Jun Jul May Jun CODE 2001 2000 2001 2000 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... -3.2 +3.2 -2.6 +2.8 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts).......... -2.0 +2.8 -2.9 +2.7 Retail .................................. -3.7 +2.9 -2.9 +2.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -6.6 +4.2 -1.8 +3.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -7.0 +4.3 -1.9 +3.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.3 -0.6 -1.2 -0.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +1.0 +2.2 +3.7 +0.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -5.1 +9.2 -7.2 +4.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.8 +1.8 -1.9 +2.9 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.1 +1.5 -2.3 +2.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 0.0 +10.4 -3.8 +8.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -4.8 -3.7 -2.3 +1.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -4.4 0.0 -6.1 +0.9 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -3.6 +6.5 +4.2 +7.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... -3.5 +1.2 -2.9 +1.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -4.7 -1.4 -2.6 0.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.5 +8.6 -5.9 +4.5 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -4.9 -4.8 -5.7 -8.2 722 Food services & drinking Places.................. +1.1 +5.4 +0.5 +6.2 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE:Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JULY 2001 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.

Reliability of Estimates

The Advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau’s full retail sales sample. Estimates from the Advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the Advance and because of sampling variability present in each survey. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9% or ±1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ± 1.65 × CV × (the estimated value). Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3.

Estimates from the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors. Additionally, estimates of sales prior to March 2001 have been restated from SIC-based estimates. The restatement methodology may have introduced additional nonsampling error. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize nonsampling errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured.

Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample will be published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions and the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Estimates).


(1) These columns measure the difference between the estimates of trend for the same pair of data months, i.e. the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates. These revisions combine data from the SIC-based and NAICS-based samples.

(2) Medians are based on the period February 2001 to present.


o 4th Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales 4th Quarter 2000 Retail E-Commerce Sales


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Source: U. S. Census Bureau 
        Service Sector Statistics Division

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