FRIDAY, AUGUST 11, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $367.9 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 4.8 percent (±0.8%) from July 2005. Total sales for the May through July 2006 period were up 5.9 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2006 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.7%)* to -0.4 percent (± 0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 1.5 percent (±0.7%) from June and were 4.5 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 19.2 percent (±2.0%) from July 2005 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 15.6 percent (±4.5%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 763-2713.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2006
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jul(3) Jun May Jul Jun Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 367,941 362,874 364,343 351,128 344,293 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 292,782 289,948 289,561 268,138 267,295 Retail ....................................... 332,418 327,574 328,971 318,123 311,344 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 93,510 93,145 88,381 88,636 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 75,159 72,926 74,782 82,990 76,998 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 68,842 66,628 68,526 76,918 70,915 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,143 10,091 9,962 9,245 9,238 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,999 8,828 8,812 8,334 8,357 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,270 7,228 6,673 6,696 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,558 1,584 1,661 1,661 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 30,193 29,645 30,110 27,229 27,325 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 26,150 26,644 24,051 24,126 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 45,426 45,312 45,113 43,267 43,074 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,282 40,239 40,055 38,649 38,493 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,207 3,197 2,919 2,903 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,792 18,675 18,508 17,337 17,209 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,581 15,447 14,542 14,399 447 Gasoline stations................................ 38,655 37,694 37,411 32,420 31,492 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,883 17,762 17,673 16,618 16,839 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 796 794 780 809 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,277 3,254 3,045 3,084 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,119 2,114 2,048 2,031 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,264 7,282 7,264 6,841 6,753 452 General merchandise stores....................... 46,136 46,001 45,892 43,918 44,014 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,636 17,706 17,760 17,826 18,105 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 28,295 28,132 26,092 25,909 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 24,825 24,684 22,747 22,520 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,470 3,448 3,345 3,389 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,905 9,975 9,972 9,280 9,318 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,863 23,383 23,472 20,644 20,727 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 15,178 14,989 13,545 13,421 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 35,523 35,300 35,372 33,005 32,949 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 7 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Jul(2) Jun May Jul Jun Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,486,606 7.0 368,405 373,387 380,085 354,414 353,605 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,947,534 9.3 288,501 291,831 297,509 266,100 267,446 Retail ....................................... 2,240,090 6.9 331,283 336,993 343,404 319,462 320,030 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 89,592 90,226 83,701 84,515 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 539,072 -0.6 79,904 81,556 82,576 88,314 86,159 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 494,990 -1.1 73,454 74,823 76,064 82,072 79,638 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 59,576 60,066 67,945 64,394 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,733 6,512 6,242 6,521 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 66,445 9.7 9,930 10,071 9,763 9,125 9,127 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,148 5,007 4,873 4,812 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,923 4,756 4,252 4,315 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 56,730 6.7 8,382 8,239 8,083 7,788 7,806 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,768 6,657 6,233 6,221 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,471 1,426 1,555 1,585 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 213,362 13.5 30,811 33,977 36,372 27,808 31,404 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 29,157 30,081 24,773 26,900 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 309,656 4.7 46,330 45,750 46,515 44,635 43,309 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 276,156 3.8 41,088 40,601 41,337 39,847 38,724 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,255 3,207 3,047 2,894 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 127,892 7.4 18,266 18,563 19,100 16,852 17,020 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,503 15,988 14,062 14,241 447 Gasoline stations................................ 251,972 18.8 41,399 39,390 39,356 34,884 32,752 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 110,954 6.3 16,243 16,603 17,199 15,271 15,621 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 773 757 698 776 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,225 3,381 2,713 3,010 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,398 6,321 6,131 5,956 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,011 2,131 1,997 1,923 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 45,329 7.3 6,552 6,721 6,501 6,266 6,152 452 General merchandise stores....................... 299,193 5.9 43,918 44,686 45,311 42,106 42,701 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 111,652 -0.8 16,013 16,666 16,968 16,286 17,108 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 17,082 17,396 16,712 17,574 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 28,020 28,343 25,820 25,593 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 24,602 24,881 22,656 22,272 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,418 3,462 3,164 3,321 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 66,839 8.6 9,378 10,125 10,647 8,910 9,315 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 152,646 13.5 20,170 21,312 21,981 17,503 18,664 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 14,313 14,464 12,014 12,535 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 246,516 8.1 37,122 36,394 36,681 34,952 33,575 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2006
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Jul Jun 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jun Jul May Jun Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.4 +4.8 -0.4 +5.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.0 +9.2 +0.1 +8.5 Retail .................................. +1.5 +4.5 -0.4 +5.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +3.1 -9.4 -2.5 -5.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +3.3 -10.5 -2.8 -6.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.5 +9.7 +1.3 +9.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +1.9 +8.0 +0.2 +5.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.8 +10.9 -1.5 +8.5 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.3 +5.0 +0.4 +5.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.1 +4.2 +0.5 +4.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.6 +8.4 +0.9 +8.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +2.5 +19.2 +0.8 +19.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.7 +7.6 +0.5 +5.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.2 +6.2 +0.2 +7.8 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.3 +5.1 +0.2 +4.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.4 -1.1 -0.3 -2.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -0.7 +6.7 0.0 +7.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +2.1 +15.6 -0.4 +12.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.6 +7.6 -0.2 +7.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Jul Jun 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jun Jul May Jun Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -1.3 +3.9 -1.8 +5.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -1.1 +8.4 -1.9 +9.1 Retail .................................. -1.7 +3.7 -1.9 +5.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -2.0 -9.5 -1.2 -5.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -1.8 -10.5 -1.6 -6.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -1.4 +8.8 +3.2 +10.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +1.7 +7.6 +1.9 +5.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -9.3 +10.8 -6.6 +8.2 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +1.3 +3.8 -1.6 +5.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.2 +3.1 -1.8 +4.8 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -1.6 +8.4 -2.8 +9.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ +5.1 +18.7 +0.1 +20.3 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -2.2 +6.4 -3.5 +6.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -2.5 +4.6 +3.4 +9.2 452 General merchandise stores....................... -1.7 +4.3 -1.4 +4.6 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -3.9 -1.7 -1.8 -2.6 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -7.4 +5.3 -4.9 +8.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -5.4 +15.2 -3.0 +14.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +2.0 +6.2 -0.8 +8.4 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JULY 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the CensusWashington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division